Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
They do a good job of disrupting or attempting to disrupt. I treat the posts as jokes now because some of them are so far out like voting principle but not caring if they win.
Why would anyone join a political website if they didn't want to win elections is what I would like to know? Losing is horrible -- I know I went through a whole bunch of it in 2006 in statewide races, in my house district, and in county elections. I won "one" vote this time and that was a statewide incumbent. Social conservatives got their candidate for Governor and we lost big! That is why I am so adamant that something like that doesn't happen nationally. Our Party cannot stand any more of putting social issues ahead of WOT and the like. We are not a one issue party and never have been and these folks have allowed the media to paint us as such.
I don't think that most of Red America is that shallow or obsessed with cross-dressing at a charity event.
I don't think the deepest Red America is afraid of a man in a dress. Are you?
Reagans 11th Commandment. I have to confess that I can get squirrely after getting a bellyful of some of these posts. Why can't we all examine the candidates peacefully, because its' a long way from January. We cannot let the Beast win!
You get more flies with honey ;-)
Well, okay. Maybe he's just bringing out your baser political instincts.
Some posters just don't read the text closely enough, before they just hit the post button. Maybe it is because it comes from a source of the copy and paste post with an agenda, and it was the source that failed to vet sufficiently. :)
I heard that there is someone on the Rudy threads making these really Spiffy colored charts--you know the kind with interior decorator colors. Maybe he could help out with the project. (Nasty, Nasty)
You are AWESOME!
It always reminds me of that champion of liberalism, Mario Cuomo, whose supporters created the slogan "vote for Cuomo, not the homo" when he ran against Ed Koch.
ROFLOL! I had forgotten about his charts!
I am most grateful you took the time. I do not read SPAM.
I COMPLETELY disagree . . . . . wait, what did you say?
Let me read it, I'll get back to you.
That's a great endorsement!
Well maybe we won't see much of that particular copy and paste anymore. :) We shall see.
Yet another one heard from whose life depends on all the rest of us being liberals!
Just because we don't agree with YOU, we're not liberals.
But if you need to keep telling yourself that to make yourself feel special, go right ahead.
You miss the point. Milton Berle in a dress cracked up the crowds. But he wasn't creating gravitas to be president. Rudy in drag will drag down such.
And, as I have said multiple times, I personally don't care, but I know it will have an impact. But thanks for trying to shift what should be obvious onto me, rather than you asking what the hell Rudy was thinking by doing that if he had political ambitions beyond NYC?
I don't think you spend enough time listening to social conservatives, apparently.
Yeah. It's pretty much a standard pick from the Left's playbook.
Of course, they love power more than any other thing, so if it suits their purpose, they'll throw every playbook out the window in a flash. It's that situational ethics thing, ya know...
So I've heard.
What's even funnier is that they think the Dems will refrain from intellectual inconsistency when they freely engage in such themselves.
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