Rudy and the Republican Nomination

http://www.joinrudy2008.com/News/DocumentPrint.aspx?DocumentID=19580 ^ | 2 Feb 2007 | Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director

[PhiKapMom]

Rudy and the Republican Nomination

New York, Feb 2 -

To:	Team Rudy
From:	Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:	February 2, 2007
Re:	Rudy and the Republican Nomination

Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.

Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.

According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:

• 70% of independents are favorable,
• 70% of 35-44 year olds,
• 74% of married women,
• 73% of households married with children,
• 52% of minority voters

The Mayor also enjoys strong approval among white evangelical Christians (76%) and self-described conservative Republicans (82%).

In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”

In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.

The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.

Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:

State	Mayor Giuliani	Closest Competitor	Source
California	33%	19% (Gingrich)	ARG - Jan. 11-17
Florida	30%	16% (Gingrich)	ARG - Jan. 4-9
Illinois	33%	24% (McCain)	ARG - Jan. 11-14
Michigan	34%	24% (McCain)	ARG - Jan. 4-7
Nevada	31%	25% (McCain)	ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06
New Jersey	39%	21% (McCain)	Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22
North Carolina	34%	26% (McCain)	ARG - Jan. 11-15
Ohio	30%	22% (McCain)	Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28
Pennsylvania	35%	25% (McCain)	ARG Jan. 4-8
Texas	28%	26% (McCain)	Baselice Jan. 17-21

Conclusion
Recent polling continues to suggest Mayor Giuliani is very well positioned within the party – particularly when compared to other potential Republican candidates – to win the nomination.

Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.

Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.

[PerConPat]

I know he will answer the people who do not like his policies on guns, gays and abortion. I hope that he is persuasive.

I sense that Rudy, and McCain for that matter, will have most trouble with immigration. This topic, baring the unforeseen, has the potential to create major difficulty for both Rudy and McCain.

[BunnySlippers]

Rudy supposedly recently said he supported closing the borders and a knowledge of English for immigrants.

[PerConPat]

Rudy supposedly recently said he supported closing the borders...

Yes, I recently read a report, I think here on FR, of his comments on the topic. The reviewer stated that Rudy sounded tougher than Bush; well, that'll be an improvement in many eyes.

My concern is basically based on the potential for this issue to split the ranks. I fear it more than abortion in that regard.

[AmeriBrit]

Are you talking about the Wilkes Corp/ADCS Inc case the feds are investigating?

I barely mentioned it the other day on another thread by saying he was mixed up in the Cunningham scandal then I was immediately attacked and called a bare faced liar twice.

Like you said the information is so easily obtained and it's a damn shame the main supporters of DH here are encouraging others into donating hard earned money to his campaign when there's a possibility he could be indicted any day.

[Hydroshock]

Jimfreedom is no longer with us.

Acount Banned or Suspended.

[AmeriBrit]

I see you answered the question I asked a few minutes ago. If you follow the leads from the Tinker case, there's several more being investigated too.

[AmeriBrit]

* Kyle “Dusty” Foggo.
* Brent Wilkes
* 'Duke' Cunningham
* Tom Delay
Jerry Lewis
Duncan Hunter
John T. Doolittle


* Already indicted

[deport]

My Bad....... This should work....

Guidelines, Dos and Don'ts

[Peach]

Just as I thought, Bunny. I knew when I asked the question (that you only posted once per thread) that it wasn't considered spam.

But you know, I really think we should take a note from the haters playbook and post things supportive of Rudy on every single page on every Rudy thread. I'm sure that would go over well with the mods. LOL

[TAdams8591]

Reagan wasn't perfect. But he and Guilianni are worlds apart. It isn't even close.

[68 grunt]

... The desperate housewives of FR are OUT OF CONTROL! ...

They're onto you being a fifth columnist disruptor.

[Howlin]

My concern is basically based on the potential for this issue to split the ranks.

The "ranks" are already split; they're split between those who will support the GOP candidate, whoever it might be, and the ones who won't.

[68 grunt]

... Spiff; dirtboy; Ev; Hydroshock; Liz; Reagan Man; Antoninus; Dead Corpse; Sir Francis Dashwood

Note the personal attack against you @ post 65. Feel free to take whatever action you deem appropriate.

I don't know about the 'personal attack', but to be included amongst this group should be pretty embarrassing.

[truthkeeper]

I will listen intently to all serious and qualified conservatives who throw their hats into the ring and will carefully examine their positions and track records and will weigh and discuss their potential for success before making any moves to support only one candidate.

Dittos to one of the few coherent comments on this thread.
SHEESH

[TheSpottedOwl]

Exactly! We cannot let her win. We as thinking humans will never agree with everything a candidate stands for personally. However we should be able to consider the overall good of the candidate vs Hillary!

[68 grunt]

Man, oh man, somebody else's light bulb going off. Welcome to the club.

Hellfire and damn, capitalism beat communism but fell to demoncrappic socialism. Demoncrappic? Nazinaliztic Amerikan Demoncrap socialists.

Freedom lost.

[jmc813]

What about economic conservatives, Libertarians? Them's the folks you need to win over. Rudy or Romney will.

Libertarians don't vote for gun-grabbers.

[68 grunt]

I call them on it and I get a trolling warning from the ADMIN MOD, LOL! Some people are well connected I am a nobody in Freepville, when I an not hear I am going to make sure Rudy does well in the primaries, ssshhhh.

Here's where you begin to err. You received a warning. That is what many of us at FR want the Admin's to do. Don't bitch about it, say 'yes sir, yes sir, three bag's full' and just raise your bar.

[b9]

Actually, there IS a candidate whose fire in the belly warms me.

[Barnacle]

If Hillary and her HINO get back in the White House, the USA and the Free World are doomed.

All the more reason that we're doomed if either Giuliani or McCain are the nominee.

Rather than morphing into the opposition in the hopes of attracting some of their votes, the Republican needs to return to its core values and call attention to the distinctions between the two parties.