Posted on 02/02/2007 1:54:29 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to craft a lasting political settlement or improve their security capabilities in the next year and a half, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a report that raises new uncertainty about the prospect for withdrawing American troops.
Months in the making, the collaborative assessment by 16 spy agencies says that growing and entrenched polarization between Shia and Sunni Muslims, inadequate Iraqi security forces, weak leaders, and the success of extremists' efforts to use violence to exacerbate the sectarian war all create a situation that will be difficult to improve.
"We think it is accurate," Stephen Hadley, Bush's national security adviser, said in a briefing on the document, called a National Intelligence Estimate. "We would emphasize the `hard-pressed,' because we will be pressing them hard and the Iraqi people will be pressing the government hard."
Rep. Ike Skelton (news, bio, voting record), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said it "demonstrates that the situation in Iraq is indeed dire and deteriorating. It saddens me that the pessimistic impressions I gained during my recent trip to Iraq are reinforced by the conclusions of the latest NIE."
The report said that "even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard-pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation" any time soon.
It used much the same language about the prospects for Iraqi security forces, saying that despite recent improvements, they too "will be hard-pressed in the next 12-18 months to execute significantly increased security responsibilities" and take on Shiite militias.
The Office of the National Intelligence Director made public a nine-page summary of a much longer classified document entitled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead." President Bush was briefed on its conclusions on Thursday.
Knowing that some findings were likely to become public, intelligence analysts stepped gingerly in the unclassified portion around one of the most politically charged questions of the Iraq debate: Is the country in the midst of a civil war?
They found that the term "civil war" doesn't entirely capture the complex situation in Iraq, which in addition to Shiites fighting Sunnis includes attacks on U.S. and coalition forces and struggles within sects, such as Shiites.
Yet, the public document said, the term "civil war" does accurately reflect key elements of the problem. That includes the hardening of sectarian identities, "a sea change in the character of the violence," and the displacement of key segments of the population to other countries.
The completed estimate comes as Congress is considering resolutions on Bush's troop-increase decision, which faces opposition from both Democrats and Republicans.
"I do not see anything so far in the report that suggests the president's new plan is a winning strategy that protects America's national interest," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (news, bio, voting record), D-Nev.
Even some Republicans saw the estimate's release as a moment for criticism.
"The NIE makes clear that we cannot continue the same stubborn strategy that has brought us to this point in Iraq," said Michigan Rep. Peter Hoekstra (news, bio, voting record), the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee. "It also makes clear that we cannot just pull our forces out as if that decision can be made in a vacuum and without consequence."
The estimate painted a picture of a country literally hanging in the balance.
It warned that leaving the current violence unchecked could invite the open intervention of neighboring countries, such as Turkey and those with Sunni regimes — essentially the wider sectarian war that is many analysts' worst fear for the region's immediate future.
While saying that outside actors are "not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability," the report noted that Iran already is providing lethal support to select Shiite groups and Syria is not doing enough to secure its borders.
The estimate also warned of the grave consequences of other possible developments, such as sustained mass killings, the assassination of a religious or political leader or a complete Sunni defection from a government in Baghdad that they already deeply distrust and are often unwilling to accept.
These events "have the potential to convulse severely" the situation in Iraq, the analysts found.
Administration officials portrayed the findings as support for the new strategy Bush announced last month, which included the troop increase, because it said that coalition forces are an essential stabilizing element in Iraq.
If U.S. troops were to leave, the report said, "we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq." It would also intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi government and hamper reconciliation efforts, the report found.
Hadley said the intelligence contained in the report had been available to Bush as he crafted the revamped war plan.
"The policy was designed to deal with the challenges that are reflected in this intelligence," he said. "It does suggest that we can succeed with the right policies and we think we have developed the right policy."
Indeed, the estimate said some positive developments could — analysts stressed "could" — help reverse negative trends. They include broader acceptance of the Sunni minority of the central government and concessions on the part of Shiites and Kurds to make more room for Sunni participation.
But the outlook for such progress was grim. Long persecuted by governing Sunnis, majority Shiites now in power are unwilling to engage Sunnis. The Sunnis, meanwhile, view the central government as incompetent and do not want to accept their minority status. And Kurds are provoking Arab groups by moving to increase their control of Kirkuk.
The 12 to 15 high-level estimates that it produces annually contain the best thinking from the nation's 16 spy agencies. But these typically classified reports have been leaked recently, to the consternation of administration officials.
___
Associated Press Writer Jennifer Loven contributed to this story.
Enough dilly dallying and diplomatic relations.. They do not honor diplomacy.
Gee, I wonder if WWII was "daunting" too? What would we do now if 1000 troops died in ONE DAY as they sometimes did in WWII?
How hysterical would the left be? Yeah, we shudda quit durring WWII and let Hitler take over Euope. We would have had "peace in our time".
We wouldn't have missed all those darned Jews, Russians, Poles, Brits, Italians, French etc. anyway.
Do I need a sarcasm alert here?
"WASHINGTON - Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to craft a lasting political settlement or improve their security capabilities in the next year and a half, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a report that raises new uncertainty about the prospect for withdrawing American troops."
What I want to know is why have the lefties called our intel services a bunch of liars unless their reports are tailored to support the leftist agenda.
McCain to introduce third Iraq resolution
***************************AN EXCERPT **************************
John McCain has decided to eschew the competing resolutions expressing disfavor with the new White House surge strategy in favor of an open-ended series of benchmarks intended to demonstrate what progress in Iraq will look like. The resolution gives no deadlines but does describe the process by which the Pentagon should measure success. Here is the conclusion on McCain's bill:
Resolved, That it is the sense of the Senate that --(1) Congress should ensure that General David Petraeus, the Commander of Multinational Forces - Iraq, and all United States personnel under his command, have the resources they consider necessary to carry out their mission on behalf of the United States in Iraq; and
(2) that the Government of Iraq must make visible, concrete progress toward meeting the political, economic, and military benchmarks enumerated in the preamble to this Resolution.
McCain obviously wants to offer a way for the Senate to demonstrate its frustration, but directed in such a way that it does not unduly damage the mission. Its benchmarks are reasonable, and open to definition to some extent. They include:
**********************AN EXCERPT ****************************
Will it be enough to mollify those who abhor the sight of Congress demanding defeat and withdrawal while making enough of a statement of general impatience to attract support from Republican Senators? It might. Its entry does one more thing -- it gives fence-sitters on Warner-Levin a reason to vote against it in favor of the McCain resolution. That may be enough to ensure a filibuster on the resolution making its way through the Senate committee chain now.
So in other words, a completely useless Govt report where all the various bureaucrats try desperately to be on all sides of the issue so as to avoid any possible blame. So tell me Chicken A.P. Little, based on the NIE is Iran "Not a major driver of violence" or are they "providing lethal support to select Shiite groups"?
A direct contradiction in a single sentence yet THIS is suppose to be helpful in shaping strategy?
I agree.
I also hope that if anyone does hold stock in the quotes in this article they note the one that is referring to other countries in the area, and says..
outside actors are "not likely to be major driver of violence, OR THE PROSPECTS FOR STABILITY"
So, all of these calls by Hillary, Specter and others, that we negotiate with Syria, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah...are wrong again.
Good question....these are the same people that told us there were WMDs in Iraq, right?
Bing bing bing bing bing! AP Bias Warning. Notice. Jennifer Loven is married to a DNC Big wig and former Clintonite. She has been documented repeatedly as being nothing but a propaganda whore for the DNC. Yet AP refuses to remove her from her position as their Chief Political Reporter despite her clear conflict of interest. Anything with her byline should take into consideration her clear conflict of interest.
I am sure Madam Hillary will wave this document around to smear Pres. Bush...but, she said today that if Bush hasn't pulled the troops by Jan. 2009, she will.
So...she WILL do cherry picking of her own.
Iraq worse than Bush says: NIE warns
NIE confirms Iraq civil war, says Beers
***************************AN EXCERPT ***********************************
"Regarding the civil war, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it must be a duck. Sixteen intelligence agencies have confirmed this grim reality and given us a new baseline for the debate. The heart of the Iraq debate is an expansion of current U.S. presence versus a phased, deliberate withdrawal. I regret the NIE did not focus on the real alternatives to the status quo. That would have been a true contribution to the debate," said Rand Beers, president of the National Security Network, a Washington-based foreign policy think tank.
************************************************************
So we now have an aold and familiar .....expert.....Randy Beers ....doing his magic.....
I HEARD that....I was very impressed that he had that compiled as well as he did.
I would LOVE for Dick Cheney to go sit in the Senate next week, while the blowhard Senators from BOTH parties get up and give their pompous speeches about how THEY KNEW better...and they KNOW better that Bush NOW...how to proceed.
Then, after each one, that was there in the 90's and in 2002, get done, have Cheney play their own speeches back to them...but, start with Bubba Clinton's hit parade of speeches.
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