Conservatives want more candidates from stage right (i.e. We need Duncan Hunter NOW)

Dalla Morning News ^ | February 1, 2007 | Carl Leubsdorf

[GulfBreeze]

Republican conservatives are unhappy... don't have a presidential candidate.

...they don't see a "real" conservative in the top tier of the GOP field.

...may have to choose between a front-runner who professes fealty to conservative causes but whose devotion may be suspect or a lesser-known ...

The disquiet stems largely from polls showing the two front-runners ...John McCain of Arizona ... Rudy Giuliani, who supports abortion rights, gun control and gay marriage.

The fastest-rising contender ...Mitt Romney, ... once campaigned as a backer of abortion rights and urged a bigger role for gays and lesbians in the GOP.

In a column last month ... Republican pollster David Hill dismissed .. McCain and Romney candidacies ...

...that doesn't mean there is no GOP aspirant with a record that social conservatives could readily support. Sen. Sam Brownback... Mike Huckabee... James Gilmore... Duncan Hunter of California and Tom Tancredo of Colorado, are also wooing the right.

... Mr. Hill, who seemed mainly concerned with questioning the motivations of Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney. Both "possess some conservative credentials," he conceded, but "neither of them seems particularly interested in being the 'real' conservative."

"They are already moving to the center to win the general election, and this could be their undoing if a genuine conservative enters the fray,"...

The conservative dilemma is hardly a new one. Since Barry Goldwater's 1964 candidacy, the most conservative contenders – from Phil Crane in 1980 to Gary Bauer in 2000 – have usually lost the GOP nomination to more broadly acceptable candidates.

But one thing is clear: Republicans have tended to do better with nominees like Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, who drew the enthusiastic support of conservatives, than with those who attracted less fervent backing, like Gerald Ford, the elder George Bush and Bob Dole.

...

[Leatherneck_MT]

"Expect to be called a troop-hating, treasonous, unappeasable reactionary after the Rudy McRomney crowd bragged about not needing conservatives to win."

They can call me that and I will wear the name like a badge of Honor.

If all we are given in the General Election is Hillary or Hillary-lite.

I'll go fishing.

[Antoninus]

I already ran the numbers.

At this point, poll numbers are meaningless.

Here's a simple stat that should be sobering for you--Since 1976, Republicans have not won the presidency without a front-runner who was perceived to be conservative.

They won't in 2008 either.

Either get behind one of the Conservative candidates or prepare to embrace defeat.

[HitmanLV]

I just want to hear him in front of a microphone, see him on camera, listen to his vision.

I felt the same way about the preferred FR 2008 candidate for a while, George Allen. Before he fell on his @ss and couldn't get up again.

The more I saw of this guy the more convinced I became of the potential for a remarkable lack of taste among the halls of FR when it came to picking a winning candidate. He was an easily befuddled, slow-witted, flat footed guy in a cowboy hat. If this guy was the consensus champion around FR, the rational conclusion was that you can't count on FR opinion for clarity and quality in a matter like this.

Just calling it like it is. The conventional wisdom on FR now and then can be so far removed from the actual conditions on the ground that it's not very helpful.

I'm still prepared to hear Duncan out. I just have no faith right now in the cocopuff conservative FR bubble that we inhabit.

[HitmanLV]

So which states do you think Kerry won that Hillary won't win? I think maybe Wisconsin, if the wind is at our back. And maybe Minnesota, which could blow either way. I think Hilly wins most, if not all, of the Kerry 2004 states, unless we run a candidate who can appeal in PA and NJ. Those are dem strongholds these days and longshots.

Hilly has a decent shot of winning Ohio, by the way, in which case it is game over.

[GulfBreeze]

Look. Just because you are a big Hillary fan, what makes you think America would vote for this woman. I ran the numbers and I see and identical turn out as '04 except that Ohio goes to Hillary because it seems to be trending slowly more and more liberal and Pennsylvania goes to Hunter because he is less 'free trade' than Bush was.

Finally I gave Nevada up to Hillary, just cause I figure they'll go for her.

Duncan won. From there, there are no more states to flip to Hillary. They only go the other way.

If, IF, she takes Ohio and Pennsylvania, she wins. But it won't happen.

How is Giuliani going to win with all those unactivated conservatives? Did you read the article at the front of this thread?

[kidd]

I see that you place a lot of faith in this simulator.

Does the simulator take into account that Hillary is a miserable public speaker and would get her clock cleaned by nearly ANY candidate? That Hillary makes her mind up in committee, by opinion poll and by focus group and would be torn apart in a debate?

Does the simulator take into account Clinton's HUGE negatives; that the majority of the people in this country (even democrats) will NEVER vote for Hillary Clinton, under any circumstance?

If I run the following ad (just words):

Bush - VP
Bush - VP
Clinton
Clinton
Bush
Bush
Clinton - ?

...do you think anyone would vote Hillary?


With all respect, there's a reason we have elections.

[kidd]

I see that you place a lot of faith in this simulator.

Does the simulator take into account that Hillary is a miserable public speaker and would get her clock cleaned by nearly ANY candidate? That Hillary makes her mind up in committee, by opinion poll and by focus group and would be torn apart in a debate?

Does the simulator take into account Clinton's HUGE negatives; that the majority of the people in this country (even democrats) will NEVER vote for Hillary Clinton, under any circumstance?

If I run the following ad (just words):

Bush - VP
Bush - VP
Clinton
Clinton
Bush
Bush
Clinton - ?

...do you think anyone would vote Hillary?


With all respect, there's a reason we have elections.

[GulfBreeze]

Pennsylvania could go GOP real easy. They area big steel state. And a big "Union Republican" state. If someone who is willing to control some of the unfair trade practices from China etc is wrunning, they will be there for us.

[colorcountry]

Mitts fundraising?

Between April 1 and June 30 the South Carolina Commonwealth PAC raised $236,000 -- the vast majority of which came in the form of $3,500 donations. Twenty-seven individuals in the state of Utah gave to the PAC while 14 donors were based in Massachusetts. Thirteen contributors had California home addresses while six live in Michigan. Not a single contributor to the organization came from South Carolina. The depth and breadth of the donations from Utah signal -- as The Fix has long maintained -- that Romney's Mormon faith will allow him to tap a massive funding source not fully exploited by politicians in the past.

washingtonpost.com

A few supporters and their families have given roughly $100,000 or more to Commonwealth PAC, but many donors have made large contributions to several affiliates at a time. On March 30, for example, Florida investment adviser Lee Munder gave $5,000 to Romney's federal PAC, $18,250 to his Iowa affiliate, $18,250 to the one in Michigan, and $3,500 to the one in South Carolina, campaign finance records show.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2006/06/11/romney_strategy_pays_off_quickly/

Also check out this link

Governor says BYU list could haunt Mitt

By Lisa Riley Roche
Deseret Morning News
Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. said Thursday that Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney entered into "probably problematic territory" in getting Brigham Young University officials to solicit support for what is widely seen as a presidential bid.
Jon Huntsman Jr. "Using a network or using an alumni list in the case of University of Utah or University of Pennsylvania or BYU is what any candidate would do," Huntsman told reporters after taping his monthly news conference on KUED Channel 7.
"But having someone affiliated with that institution intervene directly as if they were placing an endorsement behind someone is probably problematic territory," he said. "That seems to constitute the question."
Romney has made headlines since the Boston Globe reported last week that the former Utah Olympic leader was seeking help for a potential presidential run through alumni chapters of BYU's Marriott School of Management.
The newspaper reported e-mails touting the "Mutual Values and Priorities" or MVP effort were signed by two officials of the business school, Associate Dean Steve Albrecht and Dean Ned Hill. The pair were told by BYU the e-mail violated school policy and not to do it again. http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,650202076,00.html

[GulfBreeze]

"Does the simulator take into account that Hillary is a miserable public speaker and would get her clock cleaned by nearly ANY candidate? That Hillary makes her mind up in committee, by opinion poll and by focus group and would be torn apart in a debate?"

No, it only takes into account jimbo's happy finger...

[Antoninus]

The more I saw of this guy the more convinced I became of the potential for a remarkable lack of taste among the halls of FR when it came to picking a winning candidate. He was an easily befuddled, slow-witted, flat footed guy in a cowboy hat. If this guy was the consensus champion around FR, the rational conclusion was that you can't count on FR opinion for clarity and quality in a matter like this.

Allen was flawed, no doubt about that. I was on his bandwagon for about a month before he demonstrated how inept he was. Nothing chases people off the wagon faster than showing that you're a boob.

Meanwhile, DH was quietly winning his race by 30%.

I say, give him a shot. This is shaping up to be a very odd election cycle. There's no obvious front-runner. The three that the media touts are all severely out of step with the GOP base. The field is ripe for a darkhorse and I think given Hunter's bona fides, a little luck, and some quality appearances on talk radio, he could be the guy.

[Zeroisanumber]

You're living in a fool's paradise if you don't think there will be a 3rd party candidate running to Rudy's right, made viable by a ton of MSM attention and Rudy's own baggage. Didn't you learn anything from 1992?

Possibly, but I can't see another scenario where we pull off an electoral victory. Since we're probably going to lose some of the western states (Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado come to mind) if we can't pull in 2 of the 3 big rust-belt states, we're probably sunk.

In my opinion, Rudy wouldn't win a single state south of the Mason/Dixon line in a 3-way race.

Even x41 took the majority of the southern states in 1992, and that was before anyone knew much about the Clintons.

[kidd]

but I can't see another scenario where we pull off an electoral victory

Despite the media onslaught, California trended towards the GOP in 2004. In fact, every state, except SD and NH, trended towards the GOP in 2004. A popular California politician has a genuine chance of taking California. Which negates your concerns about NV+NM+CO.

[Antoninus]

Possibly, but I can't see another scenario where we pull off an electoral victory. Since we're probably going to lose some of the western states (Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado come to mind) if we can't pull in 2 of the 3 big rust-belt states, we're probably sunk.

The ONLY way to do this, in my opinion, is for the GOP to run someone who's got a sterling record on border issues and trade (to attract the union vote) but can also hold or grow the Hispanic vote. I know Hunter spent a lot of time on border issues, is a fair trader in the Reagan mold, and worked with Hispanics early in his career as a lawyer. (I've got my fingers crossed that he actually speaks Spanish...). Thus, I think he can give us a real shot.

Even x41 took the majority of the southern states in 1992, and that was before anyone knew much about the Clintons.

B41 at least had the support of groups like the NRA, GOA, and the right-to-life groups to help him in the South. Rudy will get no such help. Another part of my nightmare scenario is imagining opening my NRA voter guide for the 2008 election, and seeing them endorse a 3rd party candidate. Same with National Right to Life, Focus on the Family, Concerned Women for America, etc., etc.

That's where my theory that Rudy doesn't win a single state south of the Mason/Dixon came from. He's a liberal Yankee, and once word of that gets pounded into people by the media, he's toast.

[Zeroisanumber]

Despite the media onslaught, California trended towards the GOP in 2004. In fact, every state, except SD and NH, trended towards the GOP in 2004. A popular California politician has a genuine chance of taking California. Which negates your concerns about NV+NM+CO.

California dreamin', FRiend. With the Iraq war ongoing California is going to vote against Hillary? No way.

[panaxanax]

Good response.

[HitmanLV]

I actually expected them to go for Dubya in 2004, but it didn't work out. That's the same state that kicked unapologetic conservative Rick Santorum to the curb by 20 points.

I think Rudy would give Hilly a run for her money for PA's EVs, and might even win it.

[OMalley]

Well I wouldnt even try to guess. I just dont think hillary will make it that far.

Just like we need our base to win, she needs hers (the moonbats) and they loathe her.

catholics for the most part dont like her either (a large vote needed for her to win) BTW catholics that usually lean dem, will come out and vote strongly gop if we run a strong prolife candidate.

IF she gets that far republicans will also come out in mass to defeat her. and some on dems will plug thier nose and vote gop OR stay home, or vote a 3rd party.

so where is she going to get the votes to make it??? she is unappealing to most everyone.

yeah yeah, i know the polls show her doing alright, but come on, weve all learned over the years how accurate those are;)

ive said it before, most of the dems seem to like edwards. i think he stands a good chance of being thier guy.

[HitmanLV]

I'm all for giving DH shot, and clearly evaluating his chances.

[jimbo123]

Hunter would only win:

Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina