Fed Chair Bernanke: Impending Baby Boomer Retirement Could 'Seriously' Weaken Economy

FOX ^ | 01/18/07 | Unknown

[Froufrou]

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Congress Thursday that the economy could be gravely hurt if Social Security and Medicare aren't revamped and urged lawmakers to tackle the nation's thorny fiscal issues sooner rather than later.

"If early and meaningful action is not taken, the U.S. economy could be seriously weakened," Bernanke said in testimony to the Senate Budget Committee.

It marked the Fed chief's most forceful warning to date on the potential problems facing the United States with the looming retirement of 78 million baby boomers, the oldest of whom will start retiring next year.

This huge wave of retirees will hit the U.S. budget as well as the economy, he said.

"The longer we wait, the more severe, the more draconian, the more difficult the objectives are going to be. I think the right time to start was about 10 years ago," he told lawmakers when questioned about the urgency of the situation.

Absent policy changes by Congress and the White House, rising budget deficits are likely in the years ahead to increase the amount of federal debt outstanding to unprecedented levels, Bernanke said.

[buffyt]

Galveston and Brazoria counties in Texas privatized their SS programs for county employees years ago and they get several times more than we will on the OLD SS plan. And it is THEIR money and invested in conservative things, not in volatile markets.

http://www.ncpa.org/ba/ba215.html

[buffyt]

Galveston County employees SS plan vs. the rest of us.

[Hydroshock]

Please add me to your ping list. Thanks.

[buffyt]

	NATIONAL CENTER FOR POLICY ANALYSIS HOME / DONATE / ONE LEVEL UP / ABOUT NCPA / CONTACT Some Americans Already Have Privatized Social Security View as PDF Get Adobe Reader
BRIEF ANALYSIS No. 215 For immediate release: Monday, November 4, 1996 From the inception of Social Security in 1935, its proponents have encouraged Americans to think of it as a type of private pension plan. Now most people realize that the Social Security Trust Funds are trust funds in name only and consist of nothing more than IOUs the government owes to itself. Various polls show most Americans are skeptical that Social Security will be there when they retire. However, employees of three Texas counties that opted out of the Social Security program more than a decade ago are earning an average 6.5 percent interest, compounded daily, on their vested personal retirement accounts. Can a privatized Social Security system work? It already does. Let's see how. How the Social Security System Works. Currently, employers and employees each pay 6.2 percent (a total of 12.4 percent) of an employee's income into the Old Age, Survivors and Disability (OASDI) program for retirement benefits. This does not include the 1.45 percent payroll tax employers and employees each pay to fund Medicare's Hospital Insurance program. In general, individuals must contribute for a minimum of 40 quarters (10 years) to receive Social Security retirement benefits, or 20 quarters to receive disability benefits. In return for these contributions, individuals generally can expect: A monthly check after retirement, with the average check being $697 in December 1994. A monthly check for a qualified disability until the recipient returns to work or reaches retirement age. In addition, a surviving spouse receives a monthly benefit equal to 100 percent of the deceased spouse's basic benefit and surviving children under the age of 18 each receive an amount equal to three-fourths of the deceased parent's benefit. Social Security's Financial Crisis. Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system under which taxes collected from current workers are used to pay current retirees. That was sustainable in the past. For example, in 1950 there were 16 workers providing benefits for each retiree. However, today the ratio has dropped to 3.3 workers for each retiree, and by the year 2030 the ratio will be less than 2 to 1. The demographic changes and the pro-gram's expansion have driven the Social Security tax rate up from 2 percent (1 percent each from employer and employee) initially to 12.4 percent today, and the maximum wage subject to taxation has risen from $3,000 to $62,700. As a result, the ratio of benefits to taxes for today's workers has dropped significantly. The Social Security Administration estimates that those born in 1877 (and retiring in 1942) got an average of 36.5 percent real rate of return on their Social Security contributions, while those born in 1950 will receive on average just a 2.2 percent return, and those born in 1975 will get a 1.8 percent return. Future workers will get an even worse deal. Everyone recognizes that this trend is unsustainable. According to the latest report from the Board of Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds: Social Security tax revenues will be insufficient to pay current benefits as early as the year 2012. By the year 2029, Social Security outlays will have completely exhausted the trust funds, and current revenues will fall short of expenditures by about 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) annually. In order to make the payments without cutting benefits, the Trustees estimate that payroll taxes will have to rise from the current 12.4 percent to 18.8 percent. A Private Retirement Plan That Works. The initial Social Security Act permitted municipal governments to opt out of the system - a loophole that Congress closed in 1983. In 1981, employees of Galveston County, Texas, chose by a vote of 78 percent to 22 percent to leave Social Security for a private alternative. Brazoria and Matagorda counties soon followed, swelling the private plan to more than 5,000 participants today. In the private plan, contributions are similar to those for Social Security but returns are quite different. Initially, employees and their employer were each required to contribute 6.13 percent of income; recently, the counties increased their contribution to 7.65 percent - for a total contribution of 13.78 percent. Of that 13.78 percent, 9.737 percent goes to the employee's individual retirement account, which pays a 6.5 percent average interest rate, compounded daily. The remainder pays for disability and life insurance premiums to cover the employee in case of an accident or death. Workers continue to pay their Medicare payroll taxes and to receive Medicare benefits upon retirement. But while the cost of the private program, known as the Alternate Plan, is virtually the same to the employee and employer as Social Security, the benefits are far greater. According to First Financial Benefits, Inc., which created and administers the plans: A person retiring today at age 65 with 40 years of deposits and an annual salary of $20,000 would retire with $383,032 in a personal account. Someone with a $30,000 salary for 40 years would retire with $573,782. And a person with a $50,000 salary for 40 years would retire with $956,303. A personal retirement account this size provides a much larger postretirement income than does Social Security. Moreover, retirees under the Alternate Plan have a number of options not available to retirees under Social Security. For example, those with the Alternate Plan can choose among several annuities or take their money in a lump sum. As the figure shows, under one option: A retired $20,000-per-year worker with the personal retirement account would receive $2,740 each month at current interest rates, while Social Security benefits would be about $775 per month. A $50,000 per year worker would receive $6,843 from the private plan, compared to $1,302 from Social Security. In addition, the employer's contribution pays for much more generous benefits than those provided by Social Security. The life insurance benefit is three times the worker's salary (with a minimum benefit of $50,000 and a maximum of $150,000); Social Security, by contrast, pays a one-time death benefit of $255 to a surviving spouse. Disability insurance under the Alternate Plan pays 60 percent of an individual's salary until age 65 or until the individual returns to work and is relatively easy to qualify for, while Social Security disability benefits can be very difficult to qualify for and are unavailable to young workers who have not yet worked the required amount of time. Is the Program Safe? One of the biggest challenges to privatizing Social Security is to ensure the safety of the contributors' investments. Workers under the Alternate Plan are required to make their payroll contributions, and the money is invested in annuities with a highly rated insurance company. Though the interest rate can fluctuate from year to year, the financial institution that invests the money must pay a guaranteed interest rate for that year. Conclusion. Employees of three Texas counties are enjoying rapid growth in their retirement incomes, better benefits than those offered by Social Security and the satisfaction of knowing that the money deposited in their accounts belongs to them and will be there when they retire. Privatizing Social Security is not a distant dream; for some Americans it is a present reality. Fairness and true social security demand that all Americans have the same opportunity. This Brief Analysis was prepared by NCPA Vice President of Domestic Policy Merrill Matthews Jr.

[doc30]

We even bought a house on the gulf coast that we hope to afford even if there's no income but our 401K's.

You mut have some good 401(k)s or a really tiny cottage in FL. Property taxes and insurance can easily add up to $6-10K per year on a retirement size home.

[HarleyLady27]

Well the Dems want to give the illegal immigrants SS and medacare and everything else, yet they scream, yell and jump up and down with the born citizens of America are due to reap the benefits of some of what they have worked their whole lives for....

What's this guy's problems?

[kenth]

That isn't retirement money, it's a Ponzi scheme. Your money is gone the second the government snatches it away from you. You're right in a way though, they have stolen your retirement money, but they stole it through the SS system. Had you been able to keep that money all these years, you would have been able to invest it on your own for retirement.

One other thought, I wonder how many leftist boomers who pushed for abortion, and continue to this day, now fret over there not being enough younger Americans to pay for their retirement.

[Froufrou]

TX, not FL. Taxes are $2000 but that's this year. It's only 850 sq. ft.

My husband has done very well with his investments. Mine are less and I don't move stuff around the way he does. I have a Merrill Lynch guy steering mine.

[kabar]

By the year 2029, Social Security outlays will have completely exhausted the trust funds, and current revenues will fall short of expenditures by about 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) annually.

The trust funds are an unfunded liability. The SS Trust Fund is included in our almost $9 trillion national debt as "intragovernmental holdings." Any analysis that treats the SS trust funds as an asset is flawed. By 2017, SS will be paying out more than it is taking in, which means the USG must come up with the difference by borrowing and/or reducing spending and benefits.

[kabar]

You are exactly right. SCOTUS has ruled that the individual's SS contributions do not belong to him, but the government. Nestor vs Fleming.

[zeugma]

This program should sustain itself if they leave it alone.

Sorry, but sheer demographics kill SS. We're not having enough kids to support a ponzi scheme like this. 

[zeugma]

I feel bad for the Gen. Nexters getting stuck with the tab.

Apparently not bad enough if you expect to actually get SS. 

[Froufrou]

Expect to get? Why would I expect to get what I'd paid for my entire working life?

[Wally_Kalbacken]

I watched Bernanke testifying this morning - and with the mental midgets on the committee - it was as if they were trying to drink from a fire-hydrant in understanding his responses. His quick and aggressive testimony is what the administration needs i a lot of areas, rather than appearing as a punching bag at congressional hearings.

[Jacquerie]

What's the problem? Pelosi Galore, her party and AARP assured us in 2005 that Soc Sec was solvent forever. /sarc

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

I can see that. I have a job with odd hours, which oftentimes leave weekdays free, and that can be boooooooooring! I plan to retire at 70...hopefully...

[sergeantdave]

Create a crisis, aggravate it and then offer a solution.

I have zero confidence - no, less than zero - that the criminal fascist syndicate occupying Washington could solve any problem relating to finances or individual liberty. These are foreign concepts to these crooks. I wish they would just wear parrots and eye patches and hoist the Jolly Rogers flag above the nation's capital. It would be the first and only honest act our thieving government has done in the last 70 years.

Thieves all.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

You must have been doing something right if you two put enough money away to retire before either of you hit 60!

[xrp]

SS recipient age needs to be moved back up to where 33 workers support 1 retiree...so age 85 or so.

[RetiredArmy]

. . . we will be facing a tremendous shortage of employees.

Naw. Bush is rapidly filling the shortage with illegals daily. With the help of the Marxist-Dimocrat party, they will have it filled with illegals, rag heads and commies from the old eastern block, and france!