Posted on 01/16/2007 5:06:47 AM PST by oldtimer2
Why Global Warming is Probably a Crock
By James Lewis
As a scientist I've learned never to say "never." So human-caused global warming is always a hypothesis to hold, at least until climate science becomes mature. (Climate science is very immature right now: Physicists just don't know how to deal with hypercomplex systems like the earth weather. That's why a recent NASA scientist was wildly wrong when he called anthropogenic warming "just basic physics." Basic physics is what you do in the laboratory. If hypercomplex systems were predictable, NASA would have foolproof space shuttles --- because they are a lot simpler than the climate. So this is just pseudoscientific twaddle from NASA's vaunted Politically Correct Division. It makes me despair when even scientists conveniently forget that little word "hypothesis.")
OK. The human-caused global warming hypothesis is completely model-dependent. We can't directly observe cars and cows turning up the earth thermostat. Whatever the human contribution there may be to climate constitutes just a few signals among many hundreds or thousands.
All our models of the earth climate are incomplete. That's why they keep changing, and that's why climate scientists keep finding surprises. As Rummy used to say, there are a ton of "unknown unknowns" out there. The real world is full of x's, y's and z's, far more than we can write little models about. How do you extract the human contribution from a vast number of unknowns?
That's why constant testing is needed, and why it is so frustrating to do frontier science properly.
Science is difficult because nature always has another surprise in store for us, dammit! Einstein rejected quantum mechanics, and was wrong about that. Newton went wrong on the proof of calculus, a problem that didn't get solved until 1900. Scientists are always wrong --- they are just less wrong now than they were before (if everything is going well). Check out the current issue of Science magazine. It's full of surprises. That's what it's for.
Now there's a basic fact about complexity that helps to understand this. It's a point in probability theory (eek!) about many variables, each one less than 100 percent likely to be true.
If I know that my six-sided die isn't loaded, I'll get a specific number on average one out of six rolls. Two rolls of the die produces 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36. For n rolls of the die, I get (1/6) multiplied by itself n times, or (1/6) to the nth power. That number becomes small very quickly. The more rolls of the die, the less likely it is that some particular sequence will come up. It's the first thing to know in any game of chance. Don't ever bet serious money if that isn't obvious.
Now imagine that all the variables about global climate are known with less than 100 percent certainty. Let's be wildly and unrealistically optimistic and say that climate scientists know each variable to 99 percent certainty! (No such thing, of course). And let's optimistically suppose there are only one-hundred x's, y's, and z's --- all the variables that can change the climate: like the amount of cloud cover over Antarctica, the changing ocean currents in the South Pacific, Mount Helena venting, sun spots, Chinese factories burning more coal every year, evaporation of ocean water (the biggest "greenhouse" gas), the wobbles of earth orbit around the sun, and yes, the multifarious fartings of billions of living creatures on the face of the earth, minus, of course, all the trillions of plants and algae that gobble up all the CO2, nitrogen-containing molecules, and sulfur-smelling exhalations spewed out by all of us animals. Got that? It all goes into our best math model.
So in the best case, the smartest climatologist in the world will know 100 variables, each one to an accuracy of 99 percent. Want to know what the probability of our spiffiest math model would be, if that perfect world existed? Have you ever multiplied (99/100) by itself 100 times? According to the Google calculator, it equals a little more than 36.6 percent.
The Bottom line: our best imaginable model has a total probability of one out of three. How many billions of dollars in Kyoto money are we going to spend on that chance?
Or should we just blow it at the dog races?
So all ye of global warming faith, rejoice in the ambiguity that real life presents to all of us. Neither planetary catastrophe nor paradise on earth are sure bets. Sorry about that. (Consider growing up, instead.)
That's why human-caused global warming is an hypothesis, not a fact. Anybody who says otherwise isn't doing science, but trying to sell you a bill of goods.
Probably.
James Lewis
There. I fixed it for ya. ;-)
ping
> The ultimate cop out is when they state waiting for difinitive proof would be too late to change it.
But doesn't their precious "Precautionary Principle" require that we wait for definitive proof before we do anything?
Even if they are right and we implement their solution (to every problem), World Socialism. When the economy collapses and everyone starts burning everything in sight just to survive, what then?
liberals are devoid of common sense and feel their way through life !
*****
Recognizing this is the first step to engaging a lib in something resembling a conversation. Logic is perceived as a threat to them, so all questions must be phrased in a "how do you feel when..." or "how do you feel about..." style.
Ex: How do you feel about China's increasing prosperity?
[Leading in to China's huge use of high sulfur coal-fired factories]
It is because of beautifully written posts like yours that I am addicted to FreeRepublic.
If hypercomplex systems were predictable your local weatherman would provide hyperaccurate weather forecasts.....
He's enough of a scientist to state the obvious correctly, without ever denying the possibility that the other side may be right. he just introduces a HEALTHY SKEPTICISM TO AN EMOTION CHARGED DEBATE.
"This is the clearest, most easily understood essay about why the climate models can't predict the future weather accuratily that I have ever read."
Definately a good read and good info. My stance on Global Warming has always been, when the Local weatherman can accurately predict a 5 day forecast 10 times out of 10, then I'll give some attention to Global Warming. Right now they are rarely better than 3 out of 10.
Weather forecasting is notoriously WRONG! He states the obvious, global warming is a theory. That's all it is. It is not proven science.
Oops, overuse of caps lock..
A hate crime?
bump for later
If the annointed have their way it soon will be. I expect a movement to have Crichton's book taken out of libraries.
Are the models he builds models for the weather, or models for climate?
Those models only worked after the fact.
This is the standard procedure for testing models, because you already have the data and you already have the outcome. Otherwise it would take far too long to verify a model's accuracy.
They actually have no definitive proof about three things concerning global warming: Number one that it's actually happening, two we're causing it, and three it will be a disaster. That's three unproven hypotheses that they're trying force down the throats of the world. And that is why I am a skeptic. Especially about their motivations.
The moment you mention statistical probability, their eyes will glaze over.
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