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How Our Civilization Can Fall
The Ornery American ^ | 2006.12.03 | Orson Scott Card

Posted on 12/22/2006 8:06:16 PM PST by B-Chan

Here's how it happens: America stupidly and immorally withdraws from the War on Terror, withdrawing prematurely from Iraq and leaving it in chaos. Emboldened, either Muslims unite against the West (unlikely) or collapse in a huge war between Shiites and Sunnis (already beginning). It almost doesn't matter, because in the process the oil will stop flowing.

And when the oil stops flowing, Europe and Japan and Taiwan and Singapore and South Korea all crash economically; Europe then has to face the demands of its West-hating Muslim "minority" without money and without the ruthlessness or will to survive that would allow them to counter the threat. The result is accommodation or surrender to Islam. The numbers don't lie -- it is not just possible, it is likely.

America doesn't crash right away, mind you. But we still have a major depression, because we have nowhere to sell our goods. And depending on what our desperate enemies do, it's a matter of time before we crash as well.

Why? Because we're that Syrian village. Except that what we make is food -- enough to feed half the world.

What we don't make for ourselves anymore is ... everything else. We don't produce steel. We don't make most of our own computer equipment. We have exported our textile industry.

Some of these industries could recover. But they would be producing only for domestic consumption. We'd have nowhere to sell anything except to ourselves. That's when we find out just how much of our new "service" economy is smoke and mirrors, dependent entirely on the surpluses generated by the global system of trade...

(Excerpt) Read more at ornery.org ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: america; civilization; dystopia; future; orsonscottcard; osc
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To: AnalogReigns
["Malthus simply linked decline to over-population...this guy's analysis is much more nuanced and detailed that than that."]

Right, but this is 2006 - the zeitgeist is different.

You can go back and make a similar argument in the 1850's in terms of the future production of COAL. Their predictions were that there was going to a major shortage of coal given current consumption. They had any idea AT THAT TIME of the everyday use of the internal combustion and the subsequent need for OIL years later.

In short, the author's arguments are flawed because they're based on static and not dynamic analysis. Similar points have been by a scholar at MIT.
21 posted on 12/22/2006 11:06:59 PM PST by LjubivojeRadosavljevic
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To: BW2221

"Second is that rather than wanting to become Americans, many want to continue living as Mexicans while enjoying the benefits the U.S. provides."

I doubt facts back up this claim. Hispanic citizens in America today would probably argue against this claim, too.

Lumping all hispanics together, making no differentiation between citizens, legal immigrants, and illegal immigrants doesn't hold up, either.

The amnesty of 1986 saw subtantial numbers step forward, and do what was required to become citizens.

I attended a funeral last week of an 85 year old, who immigrated legally from Italy after WWII. He went to great lengths to become 1st a legal immigrant; then citizen.

His daughter married a man who is the son of legal immigrants from the Philippines.

When polled many illegal immigrants in the US would gladly pursue citizenship, if allowed.

The US military admits legal immigrants, giving them a path to citizenship. Many hispanic origin folks died and continue to die, in service of this country.

For certain, we should and can do a better of of regulating immigration. The goal should be reducing illegal immigration to the barest minimum.

Legal immigrants and citizens dislike illegal immigration, just like native born citizens.


22 posted on 12/22/2006 11:07:34 PM PST by truth_seeker
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To: Aetius
So my only gripe with Card's essay here is that he shouldn't throw out such mindless tripe about such a complicated issue as immigration. The manner in which he does it -- 'Quite, you who...' -- is insulting, as it suggests he holds elitist, WSJournal-style views on the subject. All in all, it taints an otherwise excellent essay.

He is not joining the elites, he is capitulating to them on this issue. He doesn't want to be dismissed as a bigot, and is afraid he will be if he takes the wrong side here.

Stephen Pinker does this sort of thing constantly in his writing. He wants to prove himself a liberal so that his anti-liberal message will be taken seriously.

23 posted on 12/22/2006 11:40:45 PM PST by dr_lew
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To: LjubivojeRadosavljevic
Extrapolating the future (unknown) from the present known trends and factors is not just risky, it's stupid and arrogant. No one can predict what the human mind will create in response to any given crisis.

Besides, I thought Futurologists went out of style sometime in the '80s.

24 posted on 12/23/2006 1:28:09 AM PST by ARepublicanForAllReasons (I hereby pledge to endeavor to eliminate most sarcasm from my posts... (NOT!))
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To: Aetius

Aetius, your words remind me of why I come to FreeRepublic. When our civilization begins to fall (as perhaps it already has), I will come to this forum to read what the best minds have to say about it. Your comments are very insightful.


25 posted on 12/23/2006 1:36:41 AM PST by Junior_G
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To: BW2221
This is what Pat Buchanan has been saying for more than a dozen years, but, when Buchanan says it, he's a racist (in the eyes of many FReepers).

His is one of the greatest minds around. Freepers' knee-jerk hatred of the guy is unfortunate.

26 posted on 12/23/2006 1:45:09 AM PST by Junior_G
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To: LjubivojeRadosavljevic
Sounds like something Thomas Malthus would write on his pessimistic predictions regarding the future of humanity - which did not come out to be true.

Malthus wasn't wrong in principle -- his math was just off by several orders of magnitude, because he did not predict exponential increases in productivity brought about by technology.

The more fundamental development that Malthus missed was that death control, in the form of fighting starvation and disease, would be accompanied by birth control, in the forms of both contraception and cultural and behavioral changes.

Both those developments are works in progress, of course.

27 posted on 12/23/2006 1:51:12 AM PST by ReignOfError
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To: B-Chan

I read it. He's probably right.


28 posted on 12/23/2006 2:12:20 AM PST by beyond the sea ( All lies and jest, still the man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.)
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To: ReignOfError
["Malthus wasn't wrong in principle -- his math was just off by several orders of magnitude, because he did not predict exponential increases in productivity brought about by technology."]

Cheers: You just underscored my point (in a subsequent post that I made).
29 posted on 12/23/2006 2:33:42 AM PST by LjubivojeRadosavljevic
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To: ARepublicanForAllReasons
["Extrapolating the future (unknown) from the present known trends and factors is not just risky, it's stupid and arrogant..."]

You're right.
It's as stupid as what John Naisbitt attempted to do with his book "Megatrends."

Remember that?
30 posted on 12/23/2006 2:43:29 AM PST by LjubivojeRadosavljevic
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To: truth_seeker
The US military admits legal immigrants, giving them a path to citizenship. Many hispanic origin folks died and continue to die, in service of this country.

The skin hue and language change, but the song remains the same. During the War of Northern Aggression, the Union had Irish brigades with the promise of fast-track citizenship for those who completed a tour of duty.

A lot of the Irish immigrants had the notion of getting arms and training, and then taking them back to Ireland to kick the English out. After surviving one brutal war, arguably the first modern war, most of them found second thoughts about starting another.

31 posted on 12/23/2006 3:01:00 AM PST by ReignOfError
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Coal. The US has 500 years of coal in the ground (at current energy usage rates).

Oil: domestic oil reserves that havent even touched because foreign oil was cheaper to produce.


Many other parts of the World have similar supplies.

We could easily survive blockading the Islamists and letting them stew in their own barbarism.
32 posted on 12/23/2006 3:26:57 AM PST by wodinoneeye
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To: wodinoneeye

["We could easily survive blockading the Islamists and letting them stew in their own barbarism."]

Are you sure about that? (sigh)


33 posted on 12/23/2006 3:36:24 AM PST by LjubivojeRadosavljevic
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To: B-Chan
Muslims don't want to become Americans and they say so with great regularity. All one has to do is listen to what their spokemen say.

“Islam isn't in America to be equal to any other faith but to become dominant. The Koran, the Muslim book of scripture, should be the highest authority in America, and Islam the only accepted religion on Earth.” -- Omar M. Ahmad, Chairman of the Board, Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), Islamic Conference in Freemont, California, July 1998.

"I wouldn't want to create the impression that I wouldn't like the government of the United States to be Islamic sometime in the future...But I'm not going to do anything violent to promote that. I'm going to do it through education." -- Ibrahim Hooper, CAIR Spokesperson

“I’m in support of the Hamas movement.” -- Nihad Awad, founder of Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), Barry University in Florida in 1994

"Those who know nothing of Islam pretend that Islam counsels against war. Those (who say this) are witless." Ayatollah Khomeini, 1942

-----------------------------------------------------------
Atran: "What can the West, especially the US, do to make the world more peaceful?"

Bashir: "They have to stop fighting Islam. That's impossible because it is sunnatullah [destiny, a law of nature], as Allah has said in the Koran. If they want to have peace, they have to accept to be governed by Islam."

Atran: "What if they persist?"

Bashir: "We'll keep fighting them and they'll lose. The batil [falsehood] will lose sooner or later. I sent a letter to Bush. I said that you'll lose and there is no point for you [to fight us]. This [concept] is found in the Koran."

Atran: "So this fight will never end?"

Bashir: "Never. This fight is compulsory. Muslims who don't hate America sin. What I mean by America is George Bush's regime. There is no iman [belief] if one doesn't hate America."

Atran: "How can the American regime and its policies change?"

Bashir: "We'll see. As long as there is no intention to fight us and Islam continues to grow there can be peace. This is the doctrine of Islam. Islam can't be ruled by others. Allah's law must stand above human law. There is no [example] of Islam and infidels, the right and the wrong, living together in peace."

Abu Bakar Bashir - the man behind the Bali bombing
-----------------------------------------------------------
"It's acceptable to kill ordinary people in Europe because these are the people who have voted in (i. e., for) the government. The ordinary people of these countries are behind this - so we will not spare them. We will kill them and laugh over them like they are killing us and laughing at us." -- Mullah Mohammed Amin

And more quotes here
34 posted on 12/23/2006 4:18:34 AM PST by Beckwith (The dhimmicrats and liberal media have chosen sides and they've sided with the Jihadists.)
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To: sageb1

As Steyn persuasively argues, demography has already doomed Europe, unless they unexpectedly find enough cultural energy to deal with the problem. But it's probably already too late. Demography is not predictive but actual, since the number of new Europeans reaching adulthood now and over the next twenty years was already determined twenty years ago and cannot be changed.

America is also vulnerable, but is not yet in that dangerous a position because of the relative demographics. We are still reproducing, and most of our immigrants are Latinos. Muslims are still limited in number, though I would agree too many for comfort.


35 posted on 12/23/2006 8:18:57 AM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: LjubivojeRadosavljevic

Given the continuing and fairly long term dynamic trend (and not a bad thing in my opinion) of our lifestyle and prosperity being wholey dependent on world trade--and the capacity of Islamism to interrupt that, does not seem like static analysis, to my non-MIT mind.

Malthusianism says particular commodities like food or as you said, coal, are static--which of course we know is untrue. However world trade is not such a commodity--nor is this analysis based on static patterns. If worldwide trade is severely curtailed, whether the Falkland Islands become the new Japan or not, will make no difference--as whatever the goods are or are from would become unavailable--our civilization could indeed suffer a serious long-term catastrophe.

Just because someone predicts potential catastrophe, it does not mean he is a Malthusian, basing analyses on static points.


36 posted on 12/23/2006 9:13:10 PM PST by AnalogReigns
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To: dr_lew

Yes, what you say is no doubt true. Who knows how many intelligent people have not even bothered to think about the immigration issue (and other hot-button ones) because they fear where it might take them. It is much easier to just accept the official PC stand that says unending mass immigration is a benefit to our nation that should never be questioned. You'll never have to worry about having your reputation tarnished if you fall in line with that.


37 posted on 12/26/2006 1:55:22 PM PST by Aetius
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To: B-Chan; Nancee
Aside from the "Mexicans as just another wave of immigrants" comment, I hope people will not be put off from reading this article. As a historical piece alone it had a lot of t-bone there to chew on. It is one of the most articulate and concise arguments for why we are fighting this war and why we must win.

It is very Churchillian in it's visionary realism and reminds me why I think Rick Santorum is not quite done with public life.
38 posted on 12/27/2006 9:56:11 PM PST by streetpreacher (What if you're wrong?)
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To: streetpreacher; melancholy; True Republican Patriot; Marysecretary; ExTexasRedhead; ...
How nice of you to direct me to this thread!!! I love t-bone!! And I especially love your comment:

"It is very Churchillian in it's visionary realism and reminds me why I think Rick Santorum is not quite done with public life."

Have a wonderful day!!!

Nancee

39 posted on 12/28/2006 4:26:17 AM PST by Nancee ((Nancee Lynn Cheney))
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To: Nancee
Thanks Nancee!

We need to be ever vigilant in the preservation of this country. My mind reels in the absurdity of those in congress who will not vote to drill in Alaska for oil, to make out country self sufficient because of what?... Caribou? (Don't get me started on that stupid argument...)

We have a constitutional right to protect the free killing of the unborn, but can be prosecuted for calling someone a name.

Either we will fight to survive, or we will perish.

40 posted on 12/28/2006 5:48:16 AM PST by Northern Yankee ( Stay The Course!)
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