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No more bubbles to bail out the housing bubble
MSN money ^ | 12/18/06 | Bill Fleckenstein

Posted on 12/19/2006 7:14:11 AM PST by finnman69

Wall Street has a soft spot for the "soft landing" thesis, but to me it's crystal clear that a serious economic slowdown is under way. What has been surprising: not that the economy is weakening but that so many people seem to expect a soft landing, and therefore remain in denial about the seriousness of the slowdown.

I guess the predilection toward a soft landing is a function of the following: So many folks in the investment business -- and in the country at large-- haven't experienced a consumer-led recession in so long that they think this outcome is just not possible. That's because the Federal Reserve Board has evolved into being a business-cycle suppressor and bubble manager. Consequently, folks just assume that economic weakness is a feature of the business cycles of yesteryear.

(Excerpt) Read more at articles.moneycentral.msn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: bubble; fannie; fanniemae; fleckenstein; fnm; housing; housingbubble; realestate; schadenfreude; softlending
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To: ex-Texan

LMAO! You are the one who called me a jerk and a liar.

Why do you keep pimping your lame blog, btw.


61 posted on 12/19/2006 8:51:42 AM PST by Fierce Allegiance (SAY NO TO RUDY!)
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To: finnman69

Ahmmm!The census bureau estimated Florida's 2002 population to be 16,713,149. State demographers believe Florida will replace New York as the third largest state in 2030, with an estimated population in that year of 24.5 million. (McGovern, Bernie, ed. Florida Almanac 2004-2005. Gretna: Pelican Publishing, 2004.)

This will require about 6-7 million acres of new housing.

"Statewide, the existing-home median price rose 3 percent to $257,800 last month; a year ago, it was $249,800, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR)."

"Home sales are projected to ease modestly but should stay within a relatively narrow range over the balance of the year -- signs that the market is stabilizing, according to NAR housing industry analysts. Still, NAR (National Association of Realtors) expects 2006 to be the third strongest sales year on record."

No State income taxes,the "Save Our Homes" act, limits property tax raises to 3% annually.Additional Homestead Exemption for Persons 65 and Older,state of the art medical
facilities throughout the region.

In addition,as baby boomer's pass on, their children are inheriting considerable assets.These are not trust fund babies.

The only bubble we are facing down here are lack of rental
housing as more and more apartment complexes convert themselves into condominiums.


62 posted on 12/19/2006 9:02:44 AM PST by managusta (Light travels faster then sound !This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak)
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To: finnman69

Wake me when the foreclosures aren't selling. That's when we will be in trouble.


63 posted on 12/19/2006 9:03:19 AM PST by AmusedBystander (Republicans - doing the work that Democrats won't do since 1854.)
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To: finnman69
Inflation roars back with 2 percent wholesale price jump Dec 19 10:01 AM US/Eastern

It did no such thing. The media is filled with utter morons.

Light truck sales rose 13.6%, after a 9.7% drop the prior month. Outside of that, core inflation rose a mere 0.2%, exactly in line with the consensus. There is no "biggest rise in 30 years". Which is why the bond market is totally ignoring it this morning.

64 posted on 12/19/2006 9:10:01 AM PST by montag813
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To: finnman69

you da man - great link to map. The power of the net comes from an army of Davids. You know how to put the good stuff out where answers to burning questions are waiting!! Thanks.


65 posted on 12/19/2006 9:14:18 AM PST by q_an_a
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To: ex-Texan
Just because FA asserts something does not make him correct.

It is very hard to tell when some posters are lying. One poster claims there 'is no bargain hunting in CT.' The jerk just ignores the fact that median prices just crashed $ 24,000 throughout the state. They just stick their heads in the sand, clinch their teeth and lie.

254 posted on 12/13/2006 11:15:30 AM CST by ex-Texan (Matthew 7: 1 - 6)

So, who is the jerk and who is the "hard to tell liar" to whom you refer?

66 posted on 12/19/2006 9:15:51 AM PST by Toddsterpatriot (If you agree with EPI, you're not a conservative!)
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To: finnman69
We have now vastly exceeded all previous credit bubbles.

This is about all that you can say because there is no precedent nor any experience about what will happen next.

Besides, the Fed and the PPT are vigilant. The worst they can do is overstimulate the money supply. You can hedge yourself against this eventuality.


BUMP

67 posted on 12/19/2006 9:21:15 AM PST by capitalist229 (Get Democrats out of our pockets and Republicans out of our bedrooms.)
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To: capitalist229
Excellent post!

Besides, the Fed and the PPT are vigilant. The worst they can do is overstimulate the money supply. You can hedge yourself against this eventuality.

Exactly.

Truly, as the philosopher Leibniz said, "This is the best of all possible worlds!"

68 posted on 12/19/2006 9:42:19 AM PST by headsonpikes (Genocide is the highest sacrament of socialism.)
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To: ex-Texan; Fierce Allegiance; Toddsterpatriot; Petronski
Just in case it wasn't PERFECTLY clear who the liar is...

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

And Ex-T... Nice trying to pawn it off on somebody who can't defend themself.

69 posted on 12/19/2006 9:58:39 AM PST by Fan of Fiat
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To: finnman69

This would indicate the loss of 400K to 600K residential construction employment jobs over the next 6 months.



Why should I be the least bit concerned about unemployed mexicans? Sure starts are down,,, from record highs ,, whats amazing is that the economy is able to absorb the current level of new construction while the industry is working off an oversupply of new homes for sale ... in my area of FL sales prices for 300K+ homes are down 10% but low end homes are up 5% or so ,, the average sales price is UNCHANGED. I am worried about the way the press talked down the economy going into the mid-terms much as they did in 1990 and I am worried about the exotic financing coming due...


70 posted on 12/19/2006 9:58:49 AM PST by Neidermeyer
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To: Fan of Fiat

LOL! Nice work putting that together.


71 posted on 12/19/2006 10:11:08 AM PST by Fierce Allegiance (SAY NO TO RUDY!)
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To: finnman69

Touche'! :)


72 posted on 12/19/2006 7:35:35 PM PST by The Duke (I have met the enemy, and he is named 'Apathy'!)
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To: AmusedBystander
Wake me when the foreclosures aren't selling. That's when we will be in trouble.

comment from another blog
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=2032#comments
"I spoke to a realtor here in Fresno, CA this past week and she has 37 bank owned properties that she needs buyers for. She mentioned how bad the market conditions are and the foreclosures are really starting to pile up. "
73 posted on 12/19/2006 7:46:05 PM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestu s globus, inflammare animos)
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To: ex-Texan
Check this one out via Drudge:

WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Center for Responsible Lending (CRL) study reveals that 2.2 million American households will lose their homes and as much as $164 billion due to foreclosures in the subprime mortgage market. Titled, "Losing Ground: Foreclosures in the Subprime Market and Their Cost to Homeowners," the CRL study is the first comprehensive, nationwide review of millions of subprime mortgages originated from 1998 through the third quarter of 2006.

Watch the housing brokers in here say "it's nothing but a pack of lies" lol.

74 posted on 12/19/2006 7:50:47 PM PST by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: montag813; All

or Both....


75 posted on 12/19/2006 7:50:56 PM PST by KevinDavis (Nancy you ignorant Slut!!!!!)
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To: Fierce Allegiance
"The author certainly didn't say "Get out now before the bottom drops".

Maybe he should have. Today a guy in Maine sold a lake front 7 bedroom house with 15 acres of land for 800K, a year ago he could have gotten 1.4M but his selfish grown brats told him not to sell, because they like going there once or twice a year for a week - maybe. They did not lose, he did.

76 posted on 12/19/2006 7:57:15 PM PST by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: M. Espinola

He would not have lost if he hung onto it.


77 posted on 12/19/2006 8:02:46 PM PST by Fierce Allegiance (Merry Christmas! SAY NO TO RUDY!)
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To: Fierce Allegiance
"He would not have lost if he hung onto it." 'Hung onto it' for what period of time?
78 posted on 12/19/2006 9:24:33 PM PST by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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