Bitterness in Beijing over North Korea's betrayal may mean war

The Australian ^ | December 18, 2006 | Rowan Callick

[Jet Jaguar]

THE prospects for continued peace in north Asia depend on the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear status, which resume in Beijing today after 15 stormy political months on the Korean peninsula.

The dynamics have shifted dramatically since the last talks. When Pyongyang tested its first nuclear bomb two months ago, defying pleas from Beijing, it alienated itself from its only ally.

The extent of that alienation has been revealed in essays by China's leading strategic thinkers. The bitter sense of betrayal felt in China about its communist neighbour, on whose behalf 360,000 soldiers, mainly volunteers, died during the Korean war 53 years ago, sets the tone for the extraordinarily frank essays in China Security.

These essays, in a special publication by the Washington-based World Security Institute, discuss, often bleakly, the far-reaching implications of North Korea's nuclear program for China's foreign policy and the balance of power within China.

[RightWhale]

Volunteers? Right!

They were.

[cake_crumb]

"The bitter sense of betrayal felt in China about its communist neighbour,..."

Is this meant to make us believe that China is a free country?

"...on whose behalf 360,000 soldiers, mainly volunteers, died during the Korean war 53 years ago"

Sure. They were given a choice to join the People's Army or face a firing squad, so I guess they could be called "volunteers".

On the one hand we have communist China, where human life is so cheap that the citizens' body parts are worth more to the regime than citizens are, home to mass executions, constant and mysterious disappearances and retroactive abortion. A military megalith in terms of numbers.

On the other hand we have communist DPRNK, where human life is so cheap the citizens are worth more to the government as fertilizer than as farmers, home to mass executions and constant and mysterious disappearances as far away as Japan. Flyspeck on Earth's arse and militarily insignificant without China, satellite of China....

We're supposed to WORRY for some reason?

[Billthedrill]

Your memory is excellent. You are entirely correct about that, and both the U.S. and the Soviets got enough satellite and seismic intel to piece two and two together. I do not know what level that was shared with the Chinese (you recall the Sovs and the Chinese had been lofting artillery at one another again right around that time) or whether it was believed, but it would be a very bad bet on the Chinese part that it was only meteorites. Meteorites - remember that one?

[tet68]

We're supposed to WORRY for some reason?

The supreme irony would be the UN called out to protect NK
against the Chinese.

[Teacher317]

China can't be too terribly interested in expanding into a wasteland. NK is mountainous (China's got plenty), has millions of starving souls (China's got enough people and money problems), and little else. There no benefit to China to annex NK as far as I can see. It's not like they'd stop the Chinese if they were passing through to SK or Japan.

[Rembrandt_fan]

You wrote, referring to Chinese military dead in Korea, "Volunteers? Right!"

I'm sure many of the Chinese fighting in Korea were volunteers--Mao Zedong's own son volunteered for action in Korea, and died there. I was an airborne infantryman during the Reagan era, at the height of the Cold War. We were taught never to underestimate the bravery or dedication of our adversaries, whether Russian, Eastern Bloc, or Chinese. I also have an uncle who was a combat engineer during the Korean War, attached to a machine gun battalion. The Chinese would attack in waves, thousands of them, blowing their damned bugles, knowing going forward was certain death. My uncle thought they were brave, although he couldn't get his head around the thinking behind such tactics.

[SevenofNine]

Hey JET bet Chia Pet won't be so roaney or crying for attention if Chinese declared war on him

[norton]

Are we real sure what we are seeing here?

"These essays, in a special publication by the Washington-based World Security Institute..."

[cake_crumb]

"The supreme irony would be the UN called out to protect NK against the Chinese."

Yeah, that could be amusing.

[WestVirginiaRebel]

It's the whole face-saving thing. The Midgit That Roared is a huge public embarressment for them. The nuke test was probably the straw that broke the camel's back. I say let them take care of Chia Head.

[Gritty]

We were taught never to underestimate the bravery or dedication of our adversaries, whether Russian, Eastern Bloc, or Chinese

I don't believe I ever have and I'm not now doubting the bravery of these Chinese "volunteers" or the others you mention.

The waves of Russian troops storming Gernman tanks with their bare hands were certainly brave as well, but perhaps they had motivations other than dying for the glory of "Mother Russia"?

Nonetheless, what I'm questioning is the Chinese being truly "volunteers" rather than being volunteered by Mao and his generals.

[gedeon3]

B.S. NK is a proxy of China. Why are there so many stupid people no this earth?

[RKV]

When the Chinese stop trading oil, food and other itmes with the Norks, then we'll know they are pissed off. Otherwise, expect good cop, bad cop from China and NK. So it will run something like this - China takes over in Norkland, or supports some general who dumps Kim, then President PIAPS is so grateful, that she sells out Taiwan, or some such.

[Popocatapetl]

China could play a gambit in which they have a major victory:

Conquering North Korea.

To start with, China advises the US that it intends a blitzkrieg conquest of NK to secure its nuclear weapons and to regime change to a stable (puppet) government. This is so the US does not panic. Assurances are also made that once this is done, China will depart quickly.

China does quickly invade, and gets the surrender of the NK army quickly with the help of some of their top generals. A military junta is put in place with the orders to begin reunification talks immediately. Food flows to the North Korean people. North Koreans stop flooding into China as illegal aliens.

One condition only, that once Korea is unified, US forces leave the peninsula, with the exception of the naval base at Pusan. Korea wouldn't mind, and the US would probably not mind either as long as China was behaving itself.

What China gets out of this is first, a major new trading partner worth many billions every year, that is also their best buddy in the whole world. China is not threatened by their democracy, because they do things "the Chinese way", so they will be much like Hong Kong.

China also gets the US off their doorstep, and even looks like a good guy to Taiwan. Taiwan, Japan, and SKor no longer feel any need to go nuclear.

All told, China gets a load of policy victories, gets rid of an annoying pest, makes a ton of money, soothes the other SE Asian nations, and generally looks like a good guy.

[Plutarch]

"If China continues its ambiguous policies on the North Korean nuclear issue...will encourage Japan to become nuclearised."

I knew I'd find this in the article when I clicked on it. NK provides Japan the excuse it needs to depacify, and thus able to stand up to China. A robust Japan must be the ultimate bad for China.

I attended a talk with former Clintonista SecDef William Perry, who opined it would be terrible if Japan militarized. Obviously, this means it would be terrific.

[Enterprise]

"Mr Zhu says that while Beijing's support of UN resolutions against Pyongyang's nuclear testing is seen in North Korea as "an act of treachery by its socialist big brother", when the test happened, "in Beijing, ire turned into fury. It was no less than a slap in China's face"."

So what. China is just a paper dragon.

[Enterprise]

360,000? Dang. It should have been 100 times that much.

[wodinoneeye]

"annexing the North while poising to take the South."
---this is the first serious talk I'm aware of predicting the possibility of war between North Korea and China. The talk has either been the veiled implicit saber-rattling war noises North Korea has made toward us, OR the thesis that some people has posited that China eventually will provoke us directly into war
with them.. But the scenario of China Vs. North Korea does put China directly facing us in the event that they take over the North and poise to take the South, who we would surely defend, putting us then face to face with China.
But it ain't gonna happen. Or at least I can't see it happening: if China waits much longer we may not be "tied up" in Iraq or elsewhere, and they can't count on the paper tiger melting in the rain.



We have only a small fraction of our military capability tied up in Iraq. (and very little of our Strategic)

[CottShop]

no it's true- they could either volunteer to fight or volunteer the die- the choice was completely theirs to make. http://sacredscoop.com

[Patton@Bastogne]

.


Popocatapetl,


China could play a gambit in which they have a major victory:

Conquering North Korea.


A good start to the scenario. Let's continue ... and let me play the North Korean role ...

First, Kim Jong-il was ALREADY anticipated Red China's (and executed scores of Red Chinese agents).

Next, Kim Jong-il knows his national assets are ZERO, specifically XX million starving, uneducated, totally brainwashed people that even Communist China would have diffulty dealing with, NO deep water ports, a ruined national transportation infrastructure (bridges, railroads), NO strategic raw materials, NO oil.

The West Germans' aquisition of poverty-striken East Germany in the 1990's was an economic and political Cakewalk compared to the TOTAL 20-year nightware that Red China has in "Finlandizing" North Korea.

If Red China agonizes over their 360,000 dead from (first) Korean War (1953) ... their Banking Gurus are terrified over the $ 360 Billion Red China might have to spend for a genuine North Korean "aquisition".

Now for the Military aspects ,,,

Red China attacks, attempts a political coup, all standard vanilla-type ingredients. Military losses are significant. Very significant.

Meanwhile, Kim Jong executes "standing orders" for the immediate destruction of the regional Crown Jewel ... and it isn't Bejing or Shanghai (even though they're possible nuclear targets, LOL) ...

Seoul finally gets the "conventional annilihation" it's been dreaming about for decades now ... 10,000 DMZ artillery pieces completely destroy the South Korean Capital (and all those semiconductor factories) in less than 24 hours ... while the Red Chinese stand hopelessly by.

The Red Chinese might have asked for U.S. help for a pre-emptive DMZ strike, but Red Chinese geo-political pride, and the U.S. reluctance to start a war, means that the North Koreans operate their DMZ artillery at least 24 hours before anyone has the ability or the balls to stop them.

Meanwile, back at the ranch, Kim Jong activates ALL of his Spetnaz cells based in South Korea, destroying large numbers of military assets (South Korean) ... but with Kim's target being the United States.

The Unites States military losses are massive, both people and equipment, simply because NO ONE wants to counter-attack the DMZ ... before it's too late.



In the end, Kim Jong is killed (it takes the Red Chinese three weeks to find him) ...

but Red China has suffered a horrible "Phyritic" (sp) military victory/defeat ...

South Korea's Seoul is GONE, with millions dead, Asia's regional economy a total wreck,

the United States has likewise suffered a significant military defeat (with GREAT domestic political ramifications) ...

It sounds to me like Kim Jong ... WINS.



Patton-at-Bastogne

"May God and His Angels Guard Your Sacred Throne, and May You Long Become It."

Shakespeare, Henry V, Act I, Scene II


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