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China could play a gambit in which they have a major victory:

Conquering North Korea.

To start with, China advises the US that it intends a blitzkrieg conquest of NK to secure its nuclear weapons and to regime change to a stable (puppet) government. This is so the US does not panic. Assurances are also made that once this is done, China will depart quickly.

China does quickly invade, and gets the surrender of the NK army quickly with the help of some of their top generals. A military junta is put in place with the orders to begin reunification talks immediately. Food flows to the North Korean people. North Koreans stop flooding into China as illegal aliens.

One condition only, that once Korea is unified, US forces leave the peninsula, with the exception of the naval base at Pusan. Korea wouldn't mind, and the US would probably not mind either as long as China was behaving itself.

What China gets out of this is first, a major new trading partner worth many billions every year, that is also their best buddy in the whole world. China is not threatened by their democracy, because they do things "the Chinese way", so they will be much like Hong Kong.

China also gets the US off their doorstep, and even looks like a good guy to Taiwan. Taiwan, Japan, and SKor no longer feel any need to go nuclear.

All told, China gets a load of policy victories, gets rid of an annoying pest, makes a ton of money, soothes the other SE Asian nations, and generally looks like a good guy.

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Popocatapetl,

China could play a gambit in which they have a major victory:

Conquering North Korea.

A good start to the scenario. Let's continue ... and let me play the North Korean role ...

First, Kim Jong-il was ALREADY anticipated Red China's (and executed scores of Red Chinese agents).

Next, Kim Jong-il knows his national assets are ZERO, specifically XX million starving, uneducated, totally brainwashed people that even Communist China would have diffulty dealing with, NO deep water ports, a ruined national transportation infrastructure (bridges, railroads), NO strategic raw materials, NO oil.

The West Germans' aquisition of poverty-striken East Germany in the 1990's was an economic and political Cakewalk compared to the TOTAL 20-year nightware that Red China has in "Finlandizing" North Korea.

If Red China agonizes over their 360,000 dead from (first) Korean War (1953) ... their Banking Gurus are terrified over the $ 360 Billion Red China might have to spend for a genuine North Korean "aquisition".

Now for the Military aspects ,,,

Red China attacks, attempts a political coup, all standard vanilla-type ingredients. Military losses are significant. Very significant.

Meanwhile, Kim Jong executes "standing orders" for the immediate destruction of the regional Crown Jewel ... and it isn't Bejing or Shanghai (even though they're possible nuclear targets, LOL) ...

Seoul finally gets the "conventional annilihation" it's been dreaming about for decades now ... 10,000 DMZ artillery pieces completely destroy the South Korean Capital (and all those semiconductor factories) in less than 24 hours ... while the Red Chinese stand hopelessly by.

The Red Chinese might have asked for U.S. help for a pre-emptive DMZ strike, but Red Chinese geo-political pride, and the U.S. reluctance to start a war, means that the North Koreans operate their DMZ artillery at least 24 hours before anyone has the ability or the balls to stop them.

Meanwile, back at the ranch, Kim Jong activates ALL of his Spetnaz cells based in South Korea, destroying large numbers of military assets (South Korean) ... but with Kim's target being the United States.

The Unites States military losses are massive, both people and equipment, simply because NO ONE wants to counter-attack the DMZ ... before it's too late.

In the end, Kim Jong is killed (it takes the Red Chinese three weeks to find him) ...

but Red China has suffered a horrible "Phyritic" (sp) military victory/defeat ...

South Korea's Seoul is GONE, with millions dead, Asia's regional economy a total wreck,

the United States has likewise suffered a significant military defeat (with GREAT domestic political ramifications) ...

It sounds to me like Kim Jong ... WINS.

Patton-at-Bastogne

"May God and His Angels Guard Your Sacred Throne, and May You Long Become It."

Shakespeare, Henry V, Act I, Scene II

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