The Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO), operated by the High Altitude Observatory
in Boulder Colorado, is allowing SEC to use their latest H-alpha and Helium-I images
while the SEC GOES SXI images are unavailable.
Posted on 12/14/2006 1:27:49 PM PST by bd476
A geomagnetic storm began on December 14 at 1416 UTC (9:16 A.M. EST).
A solar flare on 13 December at 0240 UTC (12 December, 9:40 P.M. EST) from NOAA Region 930 produced strong radio blackouts (R3) ...
R 3 Strong
HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth.
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.
. . . and an associated moderate (S2) solar radiation storm.
S 2 Moderate
Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.***
Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible.
Other systems: small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.
A large Earth-directed coronal mass ejection was also observed with this event, producing today's geomagnetic storming.
Strong to severe (G3 and G4) geomagnetic storming is expected to last through 15 December.
G 4 Severe
Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.
Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**.
G 3 Strong
Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.
Region 930 is a large sunspot group which is still rotating across the visible disk.
Because of the current position of Region 930, additional activity has greater potential to quickly impact Earth.
Agencies impacted by space weather storms should continue to closely monitor space weather conditions during the next four days.
Category |
Effect |
Physical measure |
Average Frequency |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Scale |
Descriptor |
Duration of event will influence severity of effects |
||
Geomagnetic Storms |
Kp values* determined every 3 hours |
Number of storm events when Kp level was met; (number of storm days) |
||
|
Extreme |
Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage. Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites. Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)**. |
Kp = 9 |
4 per cycle |
|
|
Severe |
Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid. Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**. |
Kp = 8, including a 9- |
100 per cycle |
|
|
Strong |
Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**. |
Kp = 7 |
200 per cycle |
|
|
Moderate |
Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage. Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions. Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)**. |
Kp = 6 |
600 per cycle |
|
|
Minor |
Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible. Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)**. |
Kp = 5 |
1700 per cycle |
|
Category |
Effect |
Physical measure |
Average Frequency |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Scale |
Descriptor |
Duration of event will influence severity of effects |
||
Solar Radiation Storms |
Flux level of >= 10 MeV particles (ions)* |
Number of events when flux level was met (number of storm days**) |
||
|
Extreme |
Biological: unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity); passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible. Other systems: complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult. |
105 |
Fewer than 1 per cycle |
|
|
Severe |
Biological: unavoidable radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: may experience memory device problems and noise on imaging systems; star-tracker problems may cause orientation problems, and solar panel efficiency can be degraded. Other systems: blackout of HF radio communications through the polar regions and increased navigation errors over several days are likely. |
104 |
3 per cycle
|
|
|
Strong |
Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***
Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely. Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely. |
103 |
10 per cycle
|
|
|
Moderate |
Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible. Other systems: small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected. |
102 |
25 per cycle |
|
|
Minor |
Biological: none. Satellite operations: none. Other systems: minor impacts on HF radio in the polar regions. |
10 |
50 per cycle |
|
* Flux levels are 5 minute averages. Flux in particles·s-1·ster-1·cm-2. Based on this measure, but other physical measures are also considered.
** These events can last more than one day.
*** High energy particle measurements (>100 MeV) are a better indicator of radiation risk to passenger and crews. Pregnant women are particularly susceptible.
Category |
Effect |
Physical measure |
Average Frequency |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Scale |
Descriptor |
Duration of event will influence severity of effects |
||
|
Radio Blackouts |
GOES X-ray peak brightness by class and by flux* |
Number of events when flux level was met; (number of storm days) |
||
|
Extreme |
HF Radio:Complete HF (high frequency**) radio blackout on the entire sunlit side of the Earth lasting for a number of hours. This results in no HF radio contact with mariners and en route aviators in this sector. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals used by maritime and general aviation systems experience outages on the sunlit side of the Earth for many hours, causing loss in positioning. Increased satellite navigation errors in positioning for several hours on the sunlit side of Earth, which may spread into the night side. |
X20 |
Less than 1 per cycle
|
|
|
Severe |
HF Radio: : HF radio communication blackout on most of the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours. HF radio contact lost during this time. Navigation: Outages of low-frequency navigation signals cause increased error in positioning for one to two hours. Minor disruptions of satellite navigation possible on the sunlit side of Earth. |
X10 |
8 per cycle
|
|
|
Strong |
HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour. |
X1 |
175 per cycle |
|
|
Moderate |
HF Radio: Limited blackout of HF radio communication on sunlit side, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes. Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes. |
M5 |
350 per cycle |
|
|
Minor |
HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals. |
M1 |
2000 per cycle |
|
* Flux, measured in the 0.1-0.8 nm range, in W·m-2. Based on this measure, but other physical measures are also considered.
** Other frequencies may also be affected by these conditions.
March 1, 2005
This ends my plans for today. Guess I am Terra Firma bound.
Is the graph saying there will be a good chance along toward midnight?
Good day for a suntan in mohabi!
"Liberals Love America Like O.J. Loved Nicole"
T-Shirt/Bumper Sticker
http://www.cafepress.com/titillatingtees.79595525
Cool! Thanks for posting the chart. Hopefully people in your area will have a chance to see an aurora.
The graph shows current data (the rightmost bar) and past data (bars to the left.
There is no prediction from this graph, but the probability is getting bigger.
And the graph is UTC = EST+5 hours.
Also:
Severe Geomagnetic Storm Expected From Tuesday's Solar Flare
The Sun has a Thousand Faces
December 13, 2006:
Astronauts Forced To Take Shelter From Violent Solar Storm In Space
Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning
I saw one at lunch.......
My wife just boarded a plane for Chicago. AHHHHH!!!
Geomagnetic latitude? More relevant than polar latitude.
Either we are equal or we are not. Good people ought to be armed where they will, with wits and guns. Merry Christmas
Yes, the 6.5 came fom my geomagnetic latitude. Mine is about 57, IIRC.
Ping.
Ping
Pretty impressive charts and colors and stuff, but what does it mean? Is there danger for people on the ground? I don't understand the science......?
Here's yesterday's NOAA Space Weather Advisory Bulletin for a comparison to the one posted above.
NOAA sunspot Region 930 produced a category R3 (Strong) radio blackout with an associated S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm at 0240 UTC, 13 December (9:40 P.M. EST, 12 December).
The SOHO/LASCO instrument also observed a powerful and fast Earth directed coronal mass ejection with this activity.
As a result of this activity, a significant geomagnetic storm is expected to impact the Earth approximately 1800 UTC, 14 December (1:00 P.M. EST).
NOAA sunspot Region 930 yielded a strong R3 radio blackout and a strong S3 solar radiation storm on 05 December. This region has been unproductive over the past five days.
The active region is now a large sunspot cluster which is still rotating across the visible disk. Because of the current position of Region 930, further activity has greater potential to promptly impact Earth.
Agencies impacted by space weather storms should continue to closely monitor space weather conditions during the next five days.
Space Weather Advisory Bulletin #06- 4
I wonder if this is causing the power problems we're having in the Seattle area this morning.
Most likely it's the big storm that's supposed to hit your area hard.
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