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NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms

Category		Effect	Physical measure	Average Frequency (1 cycle = 11 years)
Scale	Descriptor	Duration of event will influence severity of effects
Geomagnetic Storms			Kp values* determined every 3 hours	Number of storm events when Kp level was met; (number of storm days)
G 5	Extreme	Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage. Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites. Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)**.	Kp = 9	4 per cycle (4 days per cycle)
G 4	Severe	Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid. Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**.	Kp = 8, including a 9-	100 per cycle (60 days per cycle)
G 3	Strong	Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.	Kp = 7	200 per cycle (130 days per cycle)
G 2	Moderate	Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage. Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions. Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)**.	Kp = 6	600 per cycle (360 days per cycle)
G 1	Minor	Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible. Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)**.	Kp = 5	1700 per cycle (900 days per cycle)

* The K-index used to generate these messages are derived in real-time from the Boulder NOAA Magnetometer. The Boulder K-index, in most cases, approximates the Planetary Kp-index referenced in the NOAA Space Weather Scales. The Planetary Kp-index is not available in real-time.
** For specific locations around the globe, use geomagnetic latitude to determine likely sightings.

NOAA Space Weather Scale for Solar Radiation Storms

Category		Effect	Physical measure	Average Frequency (1 cycle = 11 years)
Scale	Descriptor	Duration of event will influence severity of effects
Solar Radiation Storms			Flux level of >= 10 MeV particles (ions)*	Number of events when flux level was met (number of storm days**)
S 5	Extreme	Biological: unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity); passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.* Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible. Other systems:** complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult.	10⁵	Fewer than 1 per cycle
S 4	Severe	Biological: unavoidable radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.* Satellite operations: may experience memory device problems and noise on imaging systems; star-tracker problems may cause orientation problems, and solar panel efficiency can be degraded. Other systems:** blackout of HF radio communications through the polar regions and increased navigation errors over several days are likely.	10⁴	3 per cycle
S 3	Strong	Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.* Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely. Other systems:** degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.	10³	10 per cycle
S 2	Moderate	Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.* Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible. Other systems:** small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.	10²	25 per cycle
S 1	Minor	Biological: none. Satellite operations: none. Other systems: minor impacts on HF radio in the polar regions.	10	50 per cycle

* Flux levels are 5 minute averages. Flux in particles·s^-1·ster^-1·cm^-2. Based on this measure, but other physical measures are also considered.
** These events can last more than one day.
*** High energy particle measurements (>100 MeV) are a better indicator of radiation risk to passenger and crews. Pregnant women are particularly susceptible.

NOAA Space Weather Scale for Radio Blackouts

Category		Effect	Physical measure	Average Frequency (1 cycle=11 years)
Scale	Descriptor	Duration of event will influence severity of effects
Radio Blackouts			GOES X-ray peak brightness by class and by flux*	Number of events when flux level was met; (number of storm days)
R 5	Extreme	HF Radio:Complete HF (high frequency) radio blackout on the entire sunlit side of the Earth lasting for a number of hours. This results in no HF radio contact with mariners and en route aviators in this sector. Navigation:** Low-frequency navigation signals used by maritime and general aviation systems experience outages on the sunlit side of the Earth for many hours, causing loss in positioning. Increased satellite navigation errors in positioning for several hours on the sunlit side of Earth, which may spread into the night side.	X20 (2 x 10^-3)	Less than 1 per cycle
R 4	Severe	HF Radio: : HF radio communication blackout on most of the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours. HF radio contact lost during this time. Navigation: Outages of low-frequency navigation signals cause increased error in positioning for one to two hours. Minor disruptions of satellite navigation possible on the sunlit side of Earth.	X10 (10^-3)	8 per cycle (8 days per cycle)
R 3	Strong	HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.	X1 (10^-4)	175 per cycle (140 days per cycle)
R 2	Moderate	HF Radio: Limited blackout of HF radio communication on sunlit side, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes. Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes.	M5 (5 x 10^-5)	350 per cycle (300 days per cycle)
R 1	Minor	HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals.	M1 (10^-5)	2000 per cycle (950 days per cycle)

* Flux, measured in the 0.1-0.8 nm range, in W·m^-2. Based on this measure, but other physical measures are also considered.
** Other frequencies may also be affected by these conditions.

March 1, 2005

Been tracking this all day. This graph, when the level gets above 6.5 (for my latitude : 44 deg. North), means a good chance of aurora.

Also:

Severe Geomagnetic Storm Expected From Tuesday's Solar Flare

The Sun has a Thousand Faces

December 13, 2006:

Astronauts Forced To Take Shelter From Violent Solar Storm In Space

Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning

Ping.

Ping

Pretty impressive charts and colors and stuff, but what does it mean? Is there danger for people on the ground? I don't understand the science......?

SOLAR ZOT!!!!

Here's yesterday's NOAA Space Weather Advisory Bulletin for a comparison to the one posted above.

December 13, 2006 Space Weather
Advisory Bulletin #06- 4

ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP
PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT FLARE

NOAA sunspot Region 930 produced a category R3 (Strong) radio blackout with an associated S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm at 0240 UTC, 13 December (9:40 P.M. EST, 12 December).

The SOHO/LASCO instrument also observed a powerful and fast Earth directed coronal mass ejection with this activity.

As a result of this activity, a significant geomagnetic storm is expected to impact the Earth approximately 1800 UTC, 14 December (1:00 P.M. EST).

NOAA sunspot Region 930 yielded a strong R3 radio blackout and a strong S3 solar radiation storm on 05 December. This region has been unproductive over the past five days.

The active region is now a large sunspot cluster which is still rotating across the visible disk. Because of the current position of Region 930, further activity has greater potential to promptly impact Earth.

Agencies impacted by space weather storms should continue to closely monitor space weather conditions during the next five days.

Space Weather Advisory Bulletin #06- 4

"Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk."

There ya go. The Russian spy case has been solved.

The Sun is sending Earth some extra x-radiation today.

	GOES 12			GOES 11
Cur	2236	M5.4	Ratio 0.197	2236	M5.2	Ratio 0.203
Beg	2107	B1.1		2107	B1.0
Max	2215	X1.5	Int 1.22-01 J m^-2	2215	X1.4	Int 1.17-01 J m^-2
End	2226	M7.4		2226	M7.1

This GOES X-ray flux plot contains 1 minute averages of solar X-ray output in the 1-8 Angstrom (0.1-0.8 nm) and 0.5-4.0 Angstrom (0.05-0.4 nm) passbands. Data from both operational GOES satellites are included.

Some data dropouts will occur during satellite eclipses.

SEC alerts are issued at the M5 (5x10E-5 Watts/m2) and X1 (1x10E-4 Watts/m2) levels, based upon 1-minute data.

Large X-ray bursts cause short wave fades for HF propagation paths through the sunlit hemisphere. Some large flares are accompanied by strong solar radio bursts that may interfere with satellite downlinks.

The most recent Solar Radiation Alert :

S 3 Strong

Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***

Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.

Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 23
Issue Time: 2006 Dec 15 0028 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2006 Dec 15 0005 UTCM
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong