Posted on 11/24/2006 8:29:23 AM PST by Milltownmalbay
Conventional wisdom indicates that if only Rudy Giuliani could clear the insurmountable hurdle of the Republican primaries and convention, he could be a formidable presidential candidate.
Polling data indicates that the opposite is true. Whether Republicans eager for a win after a bruising midterm election will reluctantly nominate Giuliani is one thing. The fact that he cannot win the general election is quite another.
Gallup polling prior to the 2004 presidential election confirms what many previous polls have indicated: a pro-life position helps Republicans. When factored into a close election, that help is the difference between winning and losing.
When asked by Gallup simply whether they regard themselves as pro-life or pro-choice, pro-choice wins by a margin of 52 – 41. When asked whether they would vote for a candidate who was pro-life, only 10% of pro-choicers said no. When asked the same question in reverse, 30% of pro-lifers said no.
In other words, while pro-choicers outnumbers pro-lifers, pro-lifers vote are three times as likely to vote the issue. When Gallup factored those numbers back into presidential categories, they found that 25% of the people who were planning to vote for Bush were self-described single issue pro-life voters. Only 11% of Kerry’s supporters were committed firmly to voting for a pro-choice candidate.
If we factor those numbers into the number of people who actually voted for Bush, it means that about fifteen million (out of sixty million) Republican voters have said that they would not vote for a pro-choice candidate. Admittedly, many when faced with the possibility of Hillary, might feel compelled to vote for Giuliani.
But when the President only won by four million votes, any Giuliani strategist needs to consider that his position on abortion will alienate fifteen million Republican voters. Add to that his positions on guns, gay marriage, and partial birth abortion, and you have a recipe for disaster.
In the 2004, Osama bin Ladin released a threatening video tape aimed at influencing the American elections the weekend before the election and the top concern of voters in election polls was moral issues.
Giuliani Republicans are counting on the fact that pro-lifers will reluctantly support Giuliani rather than allow another Clinton presidency. What they fail to realize is that many pro-lifers may just sit this one out, believing that they have no horse in the race.
Even worse for Giuliani, many pro-lifers may believe that it would be better to lose one presidential election than to end up with both major national parties supporting abortion on demand.
In any case, Giuliani has a problem with fifteen million of the voters he needs to win the in 2008.
So much for the name recognition crowd in my Duncan Hunter thread.
39.8% of Freepers don't care that Rudy is a pro-abort, anti-2A, pro-homo, New York liberal.
I don't particularly care for Rudy, but if it came to a choice between him and Hillary I would hold my nose and vote for him.
Abortion as a non issue by Michael Barone
http://jewishworldreview.com/michael/barone112206.php3
I've held my nose for the past 12 years.
Nothing new here.
Rudy or Hillary, take your pick.
When I read this kind of article, my first reaction is to say, "bite me." But I know that's rude, so I just ignore the whole thing.
Why does Pro Abortion Catholics consistently win elections to the Senate?
Why does the Catholic Cardinals by their silence to Catholic Pro Abortion Senators give tacit approval to their Pro Abortion Activities?
Rudy's defatco attack on the rights of the unborn and gun grabbing rhetoric are negatives for me.
If Giuliani is the nominee, it won't be a close election. Particularly not where it counts. He will rack up electoral votes.
The single-issue crowd is not doing anybody any favors by poisoning a GOP candidate with cross-party appeal.
Your vote for Rudy will not be enough to offset the non-votes of social conservatives who stay home.
Save the rant, you're not going to scare them into choosing between two unrepentant social liberals.
This isn't extended news, it is an editorial.
Time to face reality. Hilary will be the next POTUS ... and the far-right will be as responsible for getting her elected as will Democrats.
Republican presidential candidates do not win by trying to appeal to social liberals.
There is time to avoid that debacle.
The single-issue crowd is not doing anybody any favors by poisoning a GOP candidate with cross-party appeal.
Yes but what if it is you number one issue???? For me, it is more important than anything and I am relatively young (in 30's). I can't bring myself to vote for a pro-choice President. I guess I might have in Bush I because I thought he was pro-life, but found out later that I was wrong. There is no way I will vote for a pro-choice candidate. No reason for that. Do we kill out the next generation??????
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.