[blam]

I read this to mean that the mutations that can cause a human to human pandemic are out 'there' and have been identified, right?

[blam]

BF Ping.

[Joe 6-pack]

The only known cure is nicotine.

[cajungirl]

yep, looks like it.

[buffyt]

I was born in 1951 and I don't remember the pandemics listed in 1957 or 1968. I was a senior in high school in 1968.

[toomanygrasshoppers]

Ping

[mutley]

Nothing like a good flu pandemic to make for an interesting news day. Just how doomed are we? Slightly doomed? Sort of doomed? Verwy, verwy, doomed? Inquiring minds want to know.

[little jeremiah]

Seen this?

http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.NabarroSaysPandemicIn2007

Nabarro Says Pandemic in 2007

The article isn't on the thread but there's a link to it, I haven't scrolled down the thread yet. Doing a few things at once as usual, and as usual, SNAFUing them all.

[Doomonyou]

Damn.

We're all gonna die AGAIN!

[Osage Orange]

Read this: http://www.fumento.com/disease/flu2005.html

[Smokin' Joe]

ping...

[Lady GOP]

Take 'if' out of your vocabulary. We absolutely, positively — I will stake my life on it — have a pandemic," Poland says. "No one knows when, how severe it will be, or what virus it will be. But what we can say is that the leading candidate right now is the H5N1 virus."

ABC Article_Bird Flu's Pandemic Potential

[ARealMothersSonForever]

Is this the same bird flu that has been killing millions since J F'n K said we were not doing enough about it in 2004? Cholera, typhoid, diphtheria, and malaria do kill millions. Bird flu is a shakedown scam that has killed hundreds in Asia. A place that one might note keeps live poultry and hogs inside their homes. There is a good reason that flu vaccines are developed by swabbing hog snouts in Asia to determine the prevalent strains and mutations.

[metmom]

Looks that way to me.

[EternalHope]

Extremely good article. Thanks for posting, Blam.

Many interesting H5N1 stories on the web tonight. Thanks for the links, little jeremiah (aptly selected screen name, BTW!).

Thanks for the pings, Joe.

To sum up:

Two alternative genetic changes have been identified by Japanese researchers, either one of which would lead to efficient H2H transmission. Both changes are relatively simple, and the logical conclusion is that efficient H2H transmission is certain to occur at some point in the future. (This could explain Tommy Thompson's speech in Seattle a few days ago stating that an H5N1 pandemic was certain to occur.)

Rumors abound that WHO is about to move H5N1 from stage 3 to stage 4. My bet is that even if WHO does this, the public and MSM will just yawn. The natural assumption is that the time to go from stage 3 to stage 4 is likely to be the same as that required to go from stage 4 to stage 5, so most people will think the next stage is years away.

Unfortunately, that is faulty logic. It appears that the remaining genetic changes that must occur for efficient H2H transmission have been identified, and they are minor compared to the changes that have occurred already.

Dr. Niman noted that very little further change is needed at this point, and that mortality has not declined thus far in spite of the significantly greater changes needed to get this far. He concluded from this that there is not much reason to believe that mortality will decline from the current 50%+ to the less than 2% currently being used in planning models.

It appears we already have at least two known cases of people with H5N1 variants that include the genetic changes thought to be needed for efficient H2H transmission. Whether uncontrolled H2H transmission actually occurred is not known for certain, but it seems likely that it did NOT. (Otherwise I suspect we would be having a different discussion...)

I'll spend a while poking around the web for more info, but this seems to be a lot of food for thought already.