Posted on 11/14/2006 3:09:32 AM PST by Tarnsman
Time for a history lesson. The media, the Democrats and some Freebers want you to believe that somehow this election was different. No, the losses the GOP suffered WERE to be expected. Let us review, shall we?
| President | Mid-term | Senate | House | |||
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| Grant (R) | 1870 | -4 | -31 | |||
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| Grant (R) | 1874 | -8 | -96 | |||
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| Hayes (R) | 1878 | -6 | -9 | |||
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| Arthur (R) | 1882 | +3 | -33 | |||
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| Cleveland (D) | 1886 | +3 | -12 | |||
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| Harrison (R) | 1890 | 0 | -85 | |||
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| Cleveland (D) | 1894 | -5 | -116 | |||
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| McKinley (R) | 1898 | +7 | -21 | |||
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| TR (R) | 1902 | +2 | +9 | |||
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| TR (R) | 1906 | +3 | -28 | |||
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| Taft (R) | 1910 | -10 | -57 | |||
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| Wilson (D) | 1914 | +5 | -59 | |||
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| Wilson (D) | 1918 | -6 | -19 | |||
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| Harding (R) | 1922 | -8 | -75 | |||
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| Coolidge (R) | 1926 | -6 | -10 | |||
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| Hoover (R) | 1930 | -8 | -49 | |||
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| FDR (D) | 1934 | +10 | +9 | |||
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| FDR (D) | 1938 | -6 | -71 | |||
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| FDR (D) | 1942 | -9 | -45 | |||
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| Truman (D) | 1946 | -12 | -55 | |||
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| Truman (D) | 1950 | -6 | -59 | |||
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| Ike (R) | 1954 | -1 | -18 | |||
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| Ike (R) | 1958 | -13 | -48 | |||
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| JFK (D) | 1962 | +3 | -4 | |||
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| LBJ (D) | 1966 | -4 | -47 | |||
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| Nixon (R) | 1970 | +2 | -12 | |||
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| Nixon (R) | 1974 | -5 | -48 | |||
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| Carter (D) | 1978 | -3 | -15 | |||
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| Reagan (R) | 1982 | +1 | -26 | |||
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| Reagan (R) | 1986 | -8 | -5 | |||
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| Bush '41 (R) | 1990 | -1 | -8 | |||
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| Clinton (D) | 1994 | -9 | -54 | |||
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| Clinton (D) | 1998 | 0 | +4 | |||
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| Bush '43 (R) | 2002 | +2 | 0 | |||
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| Bush '43 (R) | 2006 | -6 | -28 | |||
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(1) With only four exceptions, EVERY single President since Lincoln has lost seats in the House in the midterm elections. The only ones to buck the trend were the Roosevelts (TR because he was the mostly popular President EVER his first term, FDR because of the Depression), Clinton (because of Republican miscues during the Impeachment) and Bush '43 (because of 9/11). GW was bound to lose this one.
(2) Midterm years in bold are the dreaded "six year itch". I have marked 1966 as one in that LBJ was finishing out what would have been JFK's second term. GW is his sixth year. Losses in the midterm were almost certain.
(3) Wilson (1918), FDR (1942), Truman (1950) and LBJ (1966) all lost seats both in the House and Senate when the country was at war. McKinley (1898) gained Senate seats, but lost seats in the House. Guess the country had mixed feelings about thumping Spain. Bush '41 can also be considered in this group as the country was gearing up for Gulf War I. Another category that GW fits into
(4) In terms of serious setbacks in the midterms this one doesn’t even come close. 1894 ranks as the all-time thumping with an astounding 116 House seats and 5 Senate seats changing hands. 1994, 1974, 1966, 1958 (I thought everyone liked Ike), 1938 (so much for the New Deal being popular), 1946, 1930 or 1874 were much, much worse. So counting our blessings is in order.
(5) Voters don't like scandals and take it out on the party in power. Midterm years underlined are considered scandal midterms. 1994 is in the list due to the number of scandals in Congress plus the Clintons were hip deep in scandals as well. Foley, et al doomed the Republicans at the start.
(6) Voters don't like excess spending. The thumping the Republicans received in 1890 was a voter rebellion against the "Billion Dollar Congress". The same can be said about FDR's spanking in 1938 (New Deal overreach) and Clinton's in 1994 (attempted takeover of the health care system). With bridges to nowhere is it any wonder the GOP lost seats?
(7)The historical average is a loss of 3 Senate seats and 34 House seats for the President's party in the midterms. For the "six year curse" the averge is 6 Senate seats and 39 House seats. The 2006 losses fit the historical norms.
Given the political history of our nation and add in the fact that most of the races were decided by very thin margins all the hand wringing is unjustified. Time to dust off the jeans and get back into the fight. This little history lesson should remind you that in our Republic the political fortunes of the parties ebb and flow. So the next time a liberal gloats in your face, remind him or her that this wasn't 1994, 1946 or 1938 and it sure as heck wasn't 1894.
Good post - not the awful Vanities that have been plaguing FR for a week. Thanks.
Clinton -9 /-50
W.Bush -4 / -28
Reagan -7 / -31
It is always important to keep things in context.
Most of the elections we lost were close ones.
A combination of factors led to the GOP defeat.
There is too much pessimism on these threads as if we were crushed.
Thank you for posting this.
Stats. I'm supposed to feel good about that? The facts are that dems have the congress and are likely to make legislation in opposition to conservative principles: smaller government, less costly government, less intrusive government - and likely with help from our president. I'm not taking heart in that. This is a wake-up call to the republican party and if it doesn't respond in keeping to conservative principles, it's a wake-up call to conservatives to find another means.
Perspective yes, but that doesn't mean we should not
route out rinos and moderates.
"The facts are that dems have the congress and are likely to make legislation in opposition to conservative principles: smaller government, less costly government, less intrusive government"
Judging from the last few years, that seems to happen whichever party controls congress?
Bump for later.
Thank you so much! I've beeen wondering about this, but didn't know where to look or how to search for it.
Bookmarked!
Not ment to make you feel better. A loss is a loss. I feel your pain too. Can't believe we're going to have to suffer the next two years with a Speaker Pelosi and the rest of the Dem gang. Just threw out the numbers to give everyone a little reality check and remind them, "Tomorrow is another day."
The ghastly (for the Dems) loss in 1894 was due to a Depression (it was also partly because the Dems were also overrepresented by their usual numbers in the 1892 Congress). It was the single-worst numerical loss for a political party in the House in 1 election since 1789. The GOP, though, lost 48 of those seats in the following 1896 McKinley election (most of those were in usually Dem areas which elected a mess of one-term fluke Republicans).
It's also worth pointing out that many political historians/analysts tend to regard the 1994 elections as a "6th year" election in reverse. 2006 was obviously a return to usual, past historic trends. Presuming we win the Presidency in '08, we shouldn't have another "disaster" again until 2014.
The public was not outraged because of GWB's management of the Iraq war ?
You mean we may negotiate with Iran and Syria about Iraq because of a normal historical 6 year itch loss ?
Please.
Someone tell GWB !
Pelosi/Reid, already unpopular going by the polls, are going to be hard-pressed to keep the Congress (the Senate will be harder for us to retake because of whom is up for reelection, but it won't be impossible). Come January, there's gonna be a "WTF ?!?" moment for the American public once they see the REAL change the 'Rats were talking about. To paraphrase Bette Davis, "Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy ride !" ;-)
bookmarking for future reference.
Thanks Tarnsman.
My question is: how do you get that to format so nicely spaced? I can't post stats for the life of me.
Does anyone know just what it was he squandered all this political capital on? I don't think it was for the next election. Maybe he used it to help pay for all the earmarks our senators attached to the spending bills he never vetoed.
Good research.
FYI- Coolidge 1926 should be in bold since he had become President upon the death of Harding (and elected in 1924).
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