Your projection(s) seems highly probable and well thought out.
At all costs Iran must be prevented from launching missiles at the Arabian or other Gulf based oil fields along with supertanker 'targets', which would be tantamount to Iran creating a back door 'Western financial panic' resulting in skyrocketing energy prices (far higher then Katrina related), coupled with ultra-bullish precious metals trending, while major stock indexes would quickly turn bearish in massive sell-off.
There is also a risk Iran has pre-planted terrorist saboteurs operating within the Arabian plus other Gulf oil sheikdoms, these being activated once the Iranian régime is confronted, which means preferably wiped out.
I would like to add, it is very possible the Bush doctrine regarding Iran, even previous to 9-11, was to take out Taliban controlled Afghanistan first, thus gaining the old Soviet air bases especially Herat which is in close proxcimitry to the eastern Iranian border.
Saddam's former ruled Opec Iraq was second on the list of terrorist exporting states bordering Iran, placing American /Western forces directly on the oil rich border of south-western Iran.
We should also keep in mind the US and other allied navies are patrolling the Persian Gulf and will be utilized against Iran when required.
"#2)-Israel will move North into Lebanon and finish-off Hizbolla (it made NO sense for them to stop last time), and will probably continue into Syria. The USA and Brits will probably lend Air cover as needed. All conventional weaponry."
I fully agree with you. It would not be surprising if Damascus was 'neutralized' which will result if Assad authorizes the diabolical usage of Saddam's 'stored' WMD (biological/chemical weapons) against the Jewish state.
Memories of the Shoah run very deep in Israel, so any attempts by Syria/Iran & their Hizballah or Hamas terrorist proxies to use 'gas' against Israelis will be met with swift & deadly reciprocity.