Posted on 11/10/2006 9:51:00 AM PST by SmithL
It was Ney and Taft.
This article is accurate. I watched the election returns for California very carefully Tuesday night, and I had detailed data which I had saved on my computer from Tom's 2002 Controller race to compare it against. Tom built up an early lead of over 180,000 votes from absentee ballots, which was far larger than his biggest lead of about 130,000 votes in 2002. I expected Tom's lead to diminish during the night, as it characteristically does for Republicans, but I thought it would still be enough to win.
California's large conservative Republican counties (Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Ventura) typically are among the last to report their results, and their votes are needed to counter the heavily liberal northern counties such as San Francisco and Alameda as well as somewhat less liberal but enormous Los Angeles. This time the votes weren't coming in. Turnout in Republican counties was poor, so even though they went even more heavily for Tom than in 2002 he ended up losing by about 300,000 votes compared to roughly 30,000 votes in 2002.
The pre-election polling looked very good for Tom, but it assumed a turnout model for Republicans which was way off this year.
"The only hope there is that a charismatic conservative emerges on the stage."
There is, Arnold.
Yes...it's gonna leave a mark, and it's time to put a steak on it and get on to the next election....
Yeah, Tom McClintock is such the RINO.
Sheesh.
Just because people didn't go to the polls, doesn't meant that they didn't vote.
Fresno County issued a record number of absentee ballots and the FC Elections Commissioner still had over 10,000 to count as of last evening. Many Republicans in the San Joaquin Valley didn't go to the polls but they voted enthusiastically
Don't have to force the willing.
You think the Republicans are willing?
I saw ads for all of the above.
| Voter Turnout-2002 vs. 2006 | |||||||||
| Largely populated counties | |||||||||
| County | Reg'd 2002 | Ballots Cast 2002 | % T/O 2002 | Reg'd 2006 | Ballots Cast 2006 | % T/O 2006 | Difference | ||
| Statewide | 15,303,469 | 7,594,228 | 49.60 | 15,837,108 | 7,076,810 | 44.70% | |||
| Democrat Strongholds | |||||||||
| Los Angeles | 3,976,189 | 1,768,369 | 44.40% | 3,914,138 | 1,762,547 | 45.00% | 0.60% | ||
| Santa Clara | 731,633 | 373,267 | 51.00% | 749,866 | 379,712 | 50.60% | -0.40% | ||
| Alameda | 662,339 | 350,914 | 52.90% | 678,765 | 306,810 | 45.20% | -7.70% | ||
| Contra Costa | 484,640 | 268,415 | 55.30% | 486,441 | 260,155 | 53.50% | -1.80% | ||
| San Francisco | 449,396 | 224,990 | 50.00% | 418,285 | 177,400 | 42.40% | -7.60% | ||
| San Mateo | 332,070 | 174,449 | 52.50% | 350,427 | 162,810 | 46.50% | -6.00% | ||
| Sonoma | 232,808 | 124,870 | 53.60% | 234,891 | 138,128 | 58.80% | 5.20% | ||
| Monterey | 154,137 | 87,878 | 57.00% | 145,540 | 62,123 | 42.70% | -14.30% | ||
| Marin | 140,393 | 80,488 | 57.30% | 147,311 | 76,238 | 51.80% | -5.50% | ||
| Santa Cruz | 135,554 | 78,780 | 58.10% | 142,415 | 72,017 | 50.60% | -7.50% | ||
| Republican Stronholds | |||||||||
| Orange | 1,298,892 | 641,784 | 49.40% | 1,497,365 | 588,335 | 39.30% | -10.10% | ||
| San Diego | 1,411,808 | 683,062 | 48.30% | 1,381,835 | 625,586 | 45.30% | -3.00% | ||
| Riverside | 649,670 | 309,952 | 47.70% | 754,986 | 260,591 | 34.50% | -13.20% | ||
| San Bernardino | 616,402 | 294,151 | 47.70% | 751,652 | 276,454 | 36.80% | -10.90% | ||
| Ventura | 391,160 | 199,708 | 51.00% | 391,077 | 143,814 | 36.80% | -14.20% | ||
| Fresno | 344,359 | 155,205 | 45.00% | 331,968 | 154,177 | 46.40% | 1.40% | ||
| Kern | 259,786 | 138,087 | 53.10% | 289,233 | 132,106 | 45.70% | -7.40% | ||
| San Luis Obispo | 140,659 | 83,903 | 59.60% | 155,495 | 81,290 | 52.30% | -7.30% | ||
| California Voter Turnout | ||||
| Largely populated counties | ||||
| County | Reg'd 2006 | 2002 Turnout | 2004 Turnout | 2006 Turnout |
| Statewide | 15,837,108 | 49.60% | 75.90% | 44.70% |
| Democrat Strongholds | ||||
| Alameda | 678,765 | 52.90% | 76.50% | 45.20% |
| Contra Costa | 486,441 | 55.30% | 82.90% | 53.50% |
| Los Angeles | 3,914,138 | 44.40% | 77.60% | 45.00% |
| Marin | 147,311 | 57.30% | 89.40% | 51.80% |
| Monterey | 145,540 | 57.00% | 81.10% | 42.70% |
| San Francisco | 418,285 | 50.00% | 74.30% | 42.40% |
| San Mateo | 350,427 | 52.50% | 78.30% | 46.50% |
| Santa Clara | 749,866 | 51.00% | 70.50% | 50.60% |
| Santa Cruz | 142,415 | 58.10% | 84.30% | 50.60% |
| Sonoma | 234,891 | 53.60% | 89.30% | 58.80% |
| Republican Strongholds | ||||
| Fresno | 331,968 | 45.00% | 70.90% | 46.40% |
| Kern | 289,233 | 53.10% | 72.70% | 45.70% |
| Orange | 1,497,365 | 49.40% | 73.10% | 39.30% |
| Riverside | 754,986 | 47.70% | 73.10% | 34.50% |
| San Bernardino | 751,652 | 47.70% | 72.60% | 36.80% |
| San Diego | 1,381,835 | 48.30% | 75.60% | 45.30% |
| San Luis Obispo | 155,495 | 59.60% | 80.10% | 52.30% |
| Ventura | 391,077 | 51.00% | 79.30% | 36.80% |
I saw lots of Arnold and Angelides ads.
I saw several Garamendi ads but never saw a single McClintock ad.
I saw a couple Poochigian ads and many, many Jerry Brown ads.
I saw TONS of Poizner ads. (He was reported to have an $11 million dollar ad buy, running against the hapless Bustamante no less--never saw an ad for Cruz).
The last week, I saw a couple Chiang and Strickland ads (I think those were the ones funded by the warring Tribes who set up IEs)
Heh heh heh ...
It was definitely a shame to see parental notification voted down again.. at least prop 87 got kaboshed and that parcel tax monstrosity.
Talk about privacy being sent to hell....
No argument from me!
...and that took care of that. Yuck!
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