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Republicans Hold On To The Base
AP ^ | November 9, 2006

Posted on 11/09/2006 4:58:44 AM PST by Leroy S. Mort

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Republican Party ceded the center of American politics and its many groups of swing voters to the Democratic Party in the 2006 midterm elections - with predictable results.

The GOP lost the House and the Senate.

Republicans lost badly among independent voters, suburbanites, white Catholics, the middle class and Hispanics - groups it had been courting successfully in recent years, exit polls found.

``The one thing that is so frustrating is when you hear the Karl Roves and Ken Mehlmans talking about focusing on the base because there are no swing voters,'' said GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who says there are still plenty of swing voters.

A fourth of voters this year were independents, according to exit polls, and they voted heavily for Democratic candidates.

Fabrizio was referring to Rove, top White House political strategist, and Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Mehlman's spokeswoman, Tracey Schmitt, countered that the RNC chairman has been working hard for the last couple of years to expand the party ``to expand the number of swing voters who call themselves Republicans.''

Using a playbook that has served them well over the past few elections, the administration and GOP strategists turned out Republicans and conservatives at the usual levels.

``The Republican base turned out and held,'' said Whit Ayres, a GOP strategist. ``To generate a Republican turnout in this climate was remarkable. ... But for the first time in a decade, independents preferred Democratic over Republican House candidates, this time by 18 points.''

Anger at the Bush administration and its war in Iraq drove part of this shift toward Democrats, exit polls found.

The evaporation of the political center had Republican strategists searching for answers. Many acknowledged that the party is not likely to regain ground with swing voters as long as the war in Iraq drags on. The exit polls found heavy opposition to the war from voters who cast their ballots for Democrats.

``Republicans are going to have to look at how to rebuild this coalition,'' said GOP strategist David Winston.

Some Republicans didn't want to acknowledge publicly that the midterm losses and loss of the political center to the Democrats are very large political problems.

``It comes from mistakenly believing you can own an issue forever - terrorism,'' Fabrizio said. ``It's mistaking voters going along with you on a single issue with a political realignment.''

More than two-thirds of voters said terrorism was very important in their vote on Tuesday, and they divided their support between Democrats and Republicans.

Among the swing groups that tilted heavily toward Democrats:

Independents backed Democrats by 57-39 - after voting for the GOP by 48-45 in 2002.

Moderates backed Democrats by 60-38 - after voting Democratic 53-45 in 2002.

Suburbanites backed Democrats by 50-48 - after voting for the GOP 57-40 in 2002.

Those in the middle class - those who make more than $30,000 a year but less than $75,000 a year - backed Democrats 52-45 after more than half supported the GOP in 2002.

Hispanics backed Democrats 69-30 - after backing Democrats 61-37 in 2002.

The 2006 results come from a national exit poll of 13,208 voters conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

Results for the full sample were subject to sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point, higher for subgroups.

The loss of the swing voters and the political center may be only a temporary setback for the GOP.

``It wouldn't surprise me to see them come back and vote for a Republican for president in 2008,'' said Ayres. ``That depends on who's nominated and whether things change in Iraq.''

AP polling director Mike Mokrzycki, AP manager of news surveys Trevor Tompson and AP news survey specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this story.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; swingvoters
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To: Made in USA
I predict the public will be so fed up with the dems hate and the msm's bias constant pounding on Bush and the Republicans over the next two years, there will be a landslide for the GOP in '08 no matter who runs as the dem candidate.

Time to start painting Bush as a victim the way the Dems did with Clinton in the late 90's? ;-) Of course that won't happen with "the base" thrashing Bush all the time too. Oh Ronald, where art thou's 11th commandment?

21 posted on 11/09/2006 5:22:06 AM PST by rhombus
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To: Leroy S. Mort

Well, at least we know that Neil Boortz is happy!


22 posted on 11/09/2006 5:22:15 AM PST by Obadiah
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To: Red Badger

Who's this we, white man?

Democrats worked their, pardon the pun, asses off. This is the first election that I've ever gotten phone calls from RATS four times on election day, not to mention a RAT doorknob hanger put, illegally, in my mailbox.


23 posted on 11/09/2006 5:22:43 AM PST by HiTech RedNeck
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To: rhombus

I agree with you.

But lets face it - anti-Iraq is a bigger motivater for the mushy middle than most anything we could throw at it this year. Add in folks tired of corruption, and we couldn't motivate the middle to turn out for us.


24 posted on 11/09/2006 5:24:09 AM PST by Mr Rogers (I'm agnostic on evolution, but sit ups are from Hell!)
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To: pabianice

The tax cuts will be allowed to expire.


25 posted on 11/09/2006 5:24:55 AM PST by listenhillary (You can lead a man to reason, but you can't make him think)
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To: Mr Rogers

Excellent point. I concur.


26 posted on 11/09/2006 5:25:41 AM PST by Obadiah
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To: Tolsti

"Hispanics backed Democrats 69-30"

Does anyone see the irony of KarLaRazaRove wiping the dirty Sanchez off of his upper lip here?


27 posted on 11/09/2006 5:27:19 AM PST by taxed2death (A few billion here, a few trillion there...we're all friends right?)
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To: rhombus
Not if the base continues to make the tent smaller.

Sure. Attack the voters you have in hopes (delusions) of getting the ones you don't. Nice pup tent strategy.

28 posted on 11/09/2006 5:28:26 AM PST by NeoCaveman (If you don't study hard and try to be smart....you wind up stuck as an editor for the NY Times)
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To: Mr Rogers

So what IS the "real conservative" base's position on Iraq? Sure we were always against "nationa building", does that mean we are now in favor of forced deadlines and redeployments (aka cut and run)? Is the only position that we need to build fortress America in order to prevent terrorsm at our football games? Hey, the 2008 election is coming up and the base will have to have a postion on the war. Giving the mushy middle a loss and putting lipstick on the pig is what the Democrats will offer over the next 2 years. What's the base's position?


29 posted on 11/09/2006 5:29:26 AM PST by rhombus
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To: All
My brother-in-law was a poll watcher in the 12th district on election night. He tells me out of about 200 people that came to vote,only 22 registered Republicans showed up to vote! He says many senior citizens showed up to vote. Some could hardly walk and others had a hard time even seeing the voting machine. Heavy Dem turnout in a heavy Dem area & light Republican turnout put the screws to us. Let the games begin!!
30 posted on 11/09/2006 5:30:08 AM PST by 4yearlurker
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To: NeoCaveman
Sure. Attack the voters you have in hopes (delusions) of getting the ones you don't. Nice pup tent strategy.

What's the attack?

31 posted on 11/09/2006 5:30:26 AM PST by rhombus
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To: Made in USA

You are way too optimistic.

The MSM will produce never ending reports of how glorious it would be if we had a Democrat President since the wonderful policies of the Democrat congress keeps getting thwarted by the evil Republicans.

Take note of 1996. Clinton was on the ropes and the count had started. So what happens? Bob Dole, the "tax collector for the welfare state," wants to be corranated and makes a vanity run for the White House so he can earn more in his career as a Viagra spokesman.

Had Jim Kemp and and some southern Republican been the ticket, we may have been spared.

No, there a lot of weeding out to do in the RNC and it's long overdue. When they back candidates that put liberty and the Constitution first, let me know and I'll happily vote for a Republican instead of holding my nose while doing so.


32 posted on 11/09/2006 5:31:03 AM PST by Incorrigible (If I lead, follow me; If I pause, push me; If I retreat, kill me.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

I had Republican get-out-the-vote calls on my phone so mant times I got to the point of not answering during certain times. They even left messages on my answering machine. But this is a heavy Republican district, 2 to 1, so it's not unusual. Maybe 1 or 2 Dem calls. The Republican power structure ignored the base on spending, border security and size of government. That "WALL/FENCE" bill was a sham that was so evident that it was an insult. No money, no fence, no change. I refer to Wal-Mart as Little Mexico, because you can't go there without seeing at least half the customers are Mexicans. If the Republicans had actually appropriated money to BUILD the FENCE,instead of bridges to nowhere, then they might not be in the minority today............


33 posted on 11/09/2006 5:31:09 AM PST by Red Badger (New! HeadOn Hemorrhoid Medication for Liberals!.........Apply directly to forehead.........)
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To: Incorrigible

Jack Kemp.......


34 posted on 11/09/2006 5:32:10 AM PST by Red Badger (New! HeadOn Hemorrhoid Medication for Liberals!.........Apply directly to forehead.........)
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To: rhombus

What republicans should have argued is, "Fight terrorist in Iraq, or fight them in Phoenix".

It still would have been a tough sell - negative is always a stronger motivator than the positive - but it would have helped.

It would also have helped if the republicans would have fought corruption (not protect Jefferson) and controlled spending and ear-marks.


35 posted on 11/09/2006 5:34:09 AM PST by Mr Rogers (I'm agnostic on evolution, but sit ups are from Hell!)
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To: rhombus
Americans do not like "no win" wars, and never have. As far back as the Civil War, Democrats gained ground in Congress and the Northern state governments in the 1862 off-year election as the South generally won the battles. Had Sherman not taken Atlanta and marched to the sea, McClellan might have defeated Lincoln in 1918. Had the D-Day landing not been successful and our forces not made advances in the South Pacific, FDR might have been defeated by Dewey; as it was, the 1944 election was the narrowest electoral victory that Roosevelt won. During the Korean War election of 1952, voters gave the GOP control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency for the first time in 20 years. Republicans made gains in 1966 and 1968, capturing the Presidency, as the Vietnam War ground on. For their turn, the Democrats gained ground in 1970, as Nixon's conduct of the war seemed similar to that of Johnson. Had Nixon and Kissinger not forced the North Vietnamese to the bargaining table in 1972 through bombing Hanoi and Haiphong, a measure that conservatives had advocated since 1965, that year's election might not have been a triumph for Nixon.

The GOP disaster of 2006 is a repetition of an old pattern dating back to the Civil War era. If America does not achieve a military victory, or it looks like we are not making headway, the party in power suffers. Like it or not, Americans will not suffer prolonged, indecisive conflicts.

36 posted on 11/09/2006 5:34:58 AM PST by Wallace T.
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To: 4yearlurker
He says many senior citizens showed up to vote. Some could hardly walk and others had a hard time even seeing the voting machine.

Many of those Dem voters have cast their last votes, if you get my drift.

37 posted on 11/09/2006 5:37:04 AM PST by JCEccles
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To: Always Right

And may I add, the majority of Republicans wouldn't stand up to President Bush's immigration policies and open border stance! This outcome was predicted in May and June.


38 posted on 11/09/2006 5:37:08 AM PST by lucky american (We cannot direct the wind but we can adjust the sails)
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To: lucky american
And may I add, the majority of Republicans wouldn't stand up to President Bush's immigration policies and open border stance!

Uh the Republican House did, especially J.D. Hayworth.

J.D. Hayowrth is now gone, probably because voters didn't like his incindiary Tom Tancredo like rhetoric.

39 posted on 11/09/2006 5:40:43 AM PST by Dane ("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
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To: Wallace T.
McClellan might have defeated Lincoln in 1918

Now that would have been a long campaign! Sorry I know you meant a different date but I just couldn't resist. Yes you are correct about the "protracted war" syndrome. Yet we are so impatient now and really seem to lack any perspective. Our casualties have been amazingly low but that's not what John Q "end the war" public believes now. The power of the media is frightening.

40 posted on 11/09/2006 5:44:24 AM PST by rhombus
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