Posted on 11/09/2006 4:58:44 AM PST by Leroy S. Mort
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Republican Party ceded the center of American politics and its many groups of swing voters to the Democratic Party in the 2006 midterm elections - with predictable results.
The GOP lost the House and the Senate.
Republicans lost badly among independent voters, suburbanites, white Catholics, the middle class and Hispanics - groups it had been courting successfully in recent years, exit polls found.
``The one thing that is so frustrating is when you hear the Karl Roves and Ken Mehlmans talking about focusing on the base because there are no swing voters,'' said GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who says there are still plenty of swing voters.
A fourth of voters this year were independents, according to exit polls, and they voted heavily for Democratic candidates.
Fabrizio was referring to Rove, top White House political strategist, and Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Mehlman's spokeswoman, Tracey Schmitt, countered that the RNC chairman has been working hard for the last couple of years to expand the party ``to expand the number of swing voters who call themselves Republicans.''
Using a playbook that has served them well over the past few elections, the administration and GOP strategists turned out Republicans and conservatives at the usual levels.
``The Republican base turned out and held,'' said Whit Ayres, a GOP strategist. ``To generate a Republican turnout in this climate was remarkable. ... But for the first time in a decade, independents preferred Democratic over Republican House candidates, this time by 18 points.''
Anger at the Bush administration and its war in Iraq drove part of this shift toward Democrats, exit polls found.
The evaporation of the political center had Republican strategists searching for answers. Many acknowledged that the party is not likely to regain ground with swing voters as long as the war in Iraq drags on. The exit polls found heavy opposition to the war from voters who cast their ballots for Democrats.
``Republicans are going to have to look at how to rebuild this coalition,'' said GOP strategist David Winston.
Some Republicans didn't want to acknowledge publicly that the midterm losses and loss of the political center to the Democrats are very large political problems.
``It comes from mistakenly believing you can own an issue forever - terrorism,'' Fabrizio said. ``It's mistaking voters going along with you on a single issue with a political realignment.''
More than two-thirds of voters said terrorism was very important in their vote on Tuesday, and they divided their support between Democrats and Republicans.
Among the swing groups that tilted heavily toward Democrats:
Independents backed Democrats by 57-39 - after voting for the GOP by 48-45 in 2002.
Moderates backed Democrats by 60-38 - after voting Democratic 53-45 in 2002.
Suburbanites backed Democrats by 50-48 - after voting for the GOP 57-40 in 2002.
Those in the middle class - those who make more than $30,000 a year but less than $75,000 a year - backed Democrats 52-45 after more than half supported the GOP in 2002.
Hispanics backed Democrats 69-30 - after backing Democrats 61-37 in 2002.
The 2006 results come from a national exit poll of 13,208 voters conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.
Results for the full sample were subject to sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point, higher for subgroups.
The loss of the swing voters and the political center may be only a temporary setback for the GOP.
``It wouldn't surprise me to see them come back and vote for a Republican for president in 2008,'' said Ayres. ``That depends on who's nominated and whether things change in Iraq.''
AP polling director Mike Mokrzycki, AP manager of news surveys Trevor Tompson and AP news survey specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this story.
Enduring full Democrat control of the Presidency and Congress in 2010s, with that party having become the flag bearer for socialism and perversion, will wreck this country as surely as Lenin wrecked Russia and Peron wrecked Argentina. Two more years of a no win war in Iraq and Afghanistan will ensure a Democratic triumph in 2008.
I agree with you on the RNC pushing Snarlin' Arlen so hard. But that was the fault of "conservatives" as well as Republicans. Neither Hannity nor Rush pushed Toomey--- Hannity admitting that he liked Spector-- and Toomey's loss did demoralize the base.
But Chafee was a different matter--- he was the best we were going to get, and unlike Spector, he didn't have a (politically) credible challenger.
How does him getting kicked out help? It's not like he was an influential Republican leftist ala McCain, and he was replaced by someone further to the left than he is. Ideological purity is only good to the extent it advances conservative goals imo.
I got a similar call, only Hillary was the scary sock-puppet. The whole argument was rather like a threat--implying I didn't have any choice but to take what the RNC had to dish out.
Not sure how to reply to what you wrote. Let me at least say I think you are correct in most of your assessment, particularly about the American lack of patience. We are do-ers and want to just get the job done. However, huge numbers of Iraqi civilian casualties may actually result in Iraqis requesting we get out. I'm not sure that would be considered a victory. Also destroying lots of infrastructure won't necessarilly defeat Al Queda and the Taliban. Still you make some good points. Perhaps we should move the battlefield...take the show on the road. There's that little problem of enforcing an embargo by countries developing nukes. There's the Straits that need to be kept open from Iranian trouble-making. Ships that need to be boarded, etc. And with a Democratic party being complicit and wanting to deny they support "cut and run" we might find the media about as bored with Iraq as...well...Kosovo. Just some wild thoughts.
You nailed it.
It's an attack if you want to admit anybody "they" don't approve of, doncha know?
Dems have no problem pleasing their base and still win elections. And their base is flat nuts. Why?
You are so right. Can not wait until the independents get a load of liberalism, Pelosi style. Can not wait for banning Socer Mom SUVs from U S Highways, perhaps rationing of gas as the Islamists and Chavez refuses to sell us oil while the liberal continue to prohibit using our own oil. It is going to be fun watching them return to the conservative (Party of Ronald Reagan) party. I truly hope that all RINOs will find some new home in the party of Kennedy or better yet the party of Bernie Sanders and stay away from us.
There is a third alternative. If you think of this from a net worth standpoint, the government has hoarded assets that total about 60T. They could liquidate some of that.
Does anyone have ANY ideas on how to minimize the effects of the MSM? This is truly scarey.
We "own" talk radio but independents just don't listen in enough numbers to get any message to them. I can't believe the brains on our side can't figure a way to bypass the media to some degree.
True but then the damn pitchforkers would be complaining like they did on the port deal.
Good luck with that!
I love Newt! I wish he had been in charge of the Senate. Why in the world did he step down? I didn't pay a whole lot of attention to politics back then.
It's just an MSM ruse to get the Republican to move to the Left.
If these groups were important to the GOP, then why did DeWine & Chafee lose by large margins?
They have failed miserably in this department.
Wow, that is great. What good did it do them? After Amnesty a majority will be a pipe dream. I am so proud.
"So the base held. If true, that's encouraging."
The held the base, but lost their core.
The main thing about the war that the stupid MSM is not reporting is that, yes, people are angry over the war because we're not waging real combat, we're too busy trying to win hearts and minds and the Bush admin let the MSM bog down the war even more with the phony "atrocities" and "torture."
Bush should have made this a central point and told people that the Dims/MSM are making the war drag on even more with their propagandizing. Coulda, woulda, shoulda...now Bush has to live with the consequences of dealing with a Rat Congress.
Great post!
I have been a life-long republican and the most frustrating thing of all is that the republican base never seems to grow greater than 40-45 percent and the number of registered republicans is always less than registered democrats. I can't completely explain why independents switched this time around. The war was a factor, but I think more than anything, the Republicans played a prevent defense. They didn't take their winning game plan to the campaign. A great econonomy, stock prices rising, energy prices flat, a necessary and winnable war. They allowed the Dems and press to frame the game and the rules of engagement. Plus they got outflanked with the
dems selectively picking social conservatives against vulnerable Reps.
Just my thoughts. No bad feelings about the party in general. Will be there in 2 years fighting harder than ever to get things put right, while hoping we don't go down the tubes as a nation in the interim.
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