Posted on 11/08/2006 8:14:07 PM PST by Checkers
The post-mortems are accumulating, but I think the obvious has to be stated: John McCain and his colleagues in the Gang of 14 cost the GOP its Senate majority while the conduct of a handful of corrupt House members gave that body's leadership the Democrats.
The first two paragraphs of my book Painting the Map Red --published in March of this year, read:
If you are a conservative Republican, as I am, you have a right to be worried. An overconfident and complacent Republican Party could be facing electoral disaster. Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, and a host of others could be looming in our future and undoing all the good we've tried to do.
It is break the glass and pull the alarm time for the Republican Party. The elections looming in November 2006 are shaping up to be disastrous for the GOP as the elections of 1994 were for the Democrats. Most GOP insiders seem unaware of the party's political peril. Some are resigned to a major defeat as the price we have to pay for a decade of consistent gains, which, they think, couldn't have gone on forever.
As cooler heads sort through the returns, they will see not a Democratic wave but a long series of bitter fights most of which were lost by very thin margins, the sort of margin that could have been overcome had there been greater purpose and energy arrayed on the GOP's side. The country did not fundamentally change from 2004, but the Republicans had to defend very difficult terrain in very adverse circumstances. Step by step over the past two years the GOP painted themselves into a corner from which there was no escape. Congressional leadership time and time again took the easy way out and declared truces with Democrats over issues, which ought not to have been compromised. The easy way led to Tuesday's result.
The criminal activities of Duke Cunningham, Bob Ney and Mark Foley were anchors around every Republican neck, and the damaged leadership could not figure out that the only way to slip that weight was by staying in town and working around the clock on issue after issue. The long recesses and the unwillingness to confront the issues head on --remember the House's inexplicable refusal to condemn the New York Times by name in a resolution over the SWIFT program leak?-- conveyed a smugness about the majority which was rooted in redistricting's false assurance of invulnerability. Only on rare occasions would the Republicans set up the sort of debate that sharpened the contrast between the parties. In wartime, the public expects much more from its leaders than they received from the GOP.
In the Senate three turning points stand out.
On April 15, 2005 --less than three months after President Bush had begun a second term won in part because of his pledge to fight for sound judges-- Senator McCain appeared on Hardball and announced he would not support the "constitutional option" to end Democratic filibusters. Then, stunned by the furious reaction, the senator from Arizona cobbled together the Gang of 14 "compromise" that in fact destroyed the ability of the Republican Party to campaign on Democratic obstructionism while throwing many fine nominees under the bus. Now in the ruins of Tuesday there is an almost certain end to the slow but steady restoration of originalism to the bench. Had McCain not abandoned his party and then sabotaged its plans, there would have been an important debate and a crucial decision taken on how the Constitution operates. The result was the complete opposite. Yes, President Bush got his two nominees to SCOTUS through a 55-45 Senate, but the door is now closed, and the court still tilted left. A once-in-a-generation opportunity was lost.
A few months later there came a debate in the Senate over the Democrats' demand for a timetable for withdrawal for Iraq led to another half-measure: A Frist-Warner alternative that demanded quarterly reports on the war's progress, a move widely and correctly interpreted as a blow to the Administration’s Iraq policy. Fourteen Republicans voted against the Frist-Warner proposal --including Senator McCain-- and the press immediately understood that the half-measure was an early indicator of erosion in support for a policy of victory.
Then came the two leaks of national security secrets to the New York Times, and an utterly feckless response from both the Senate and the House. Not one hearing was held; not one subpoena delivered. A resolution condemning these deeply injurious actions passed the House but dared not name the New York Times. The Senate did not even vote on a non-binding resolution.
Nor did the Senate get around to confirming the president's authority to conduct warrantless surveillance of al Qaeda contacting its operatives in the United States. Weeks were taken up jamming the incoherent McCain-Kennedy immigration bill through the Judiciary Committee only to see it repudiated by the majority of Republicans, and the opportunity lost for a comprehensive bill that would have met the demand for security within a rational regularization of the illegal population already here.
And while the Senate twiddled away its days, crucial nominees to the federal appellate bench languished in the Judiciary Committee. The most important of them --Peter Keisler who remains nominated for the D.C. Circuit-- didn't even receive a vote because of indifference on the part of Chairman Specter.
(The National Review's Byron York wondered why the president didn't bring up the judges issue in the campaign until the last week, and then only in Montana. The reason was obvious: Senators DeWine and Chafee were struggling and any focus on the legacy of the Gang of 14 would doom DeWine's already dwindling chances while reminding the country of the retreat from principal in early '05.)
As summer became fall, the Administration and Senator Frist began a belated attempt to salvage the term. At exactly that moment Senators McCain and Graham threw down their still murky objections to the Administration’s proposals on the trial and treatment of terrorists. Precious days were lost as was momentum and clarity, the NSA program left unconfirmed (though still quite constitutional) and Keisler et al hung out to dry.
Throughout this two years the National Republican Senatorial Committee attempted to persuade an unpersuadable base that Lincoln Chafee was a Republican. For years Chafee has frustrated measure after measure, most recently the confirmation of John Bolton, even after Ahmadinejad threatened and Chavez insulted the United States from the UN stage. Chafee was a one-man wrecking crew on the NRSC finances, a drain of resources and energy, and a billboard for the idea that the Senate is first a club and only secondarily a body of legislators.
It is hard to conceive of how the past two years could have been managed worse on the Hill.
The presidential ambitions of three senators ended Tuesday night, though two of them will not face up to it.
The Republican Party sent them and their 52 colleagues to Washington D.C. to implement an agenda which could have been accomplished but that opportunity was frittered away.
The Republican Party raised the money and staffed the campaigns that had yielded a 55-45 seat majority, and the Republican Party expected the 55 to act like a majority. Confronted with obstruction, the Republicans first fretted and then caved on issue after issue. Had the 55 at least been seen to be trying --hard, and not in a senatorial kind of way-- Tuesday would have had a much different result. Independents, especially, might have seen why the majority mattered.
Will the GOP get back to a working majority again? Perhaps. And perhaps sooner than you think. The Democrats have at least six vulnerable senators running in 2008, while the situation looks pretty good for the GOP.
But the majority is not going to return unless the new minority leadership --however it is composed-- resolves to persuade the public, and to be firm in its convictions, not concerned for the praise of the Beltway-Manhattan media machine.
Hugh Hewitt is a law professor, broadcast journalist, and author of several books including Painting the Map Red: The Fight to Create a Permanent Republican Majority .
Illegal immigration solution:
Look at the election Demographics. Our "Border" people cost us a TON of Hispanic Votes Nationwide, and gave the Dems a whole new base of Illegal Voters....
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Yes they did BUT if the Federal government had stood up and DONE ITS MANDATED JOB of protecting the borders of this country, it would never have been an issue. The borders would have been closed very easily, and the ILLEGAL FLOW of illegals and God knows what else, would have been ended.
The Federal government wastes over $100 BILLION per year to support illegal aliens, to say NOTHING of the state level. The cost to implement a complete border closure would be a fraction of that. Yes, it started way before Bush -- but Bush chose to do nothing, in fact, help and aid illegals by suppressing information flow from the Border Patrol about illegal crossing -- a matter of public record.
He remains Mexico's Manchurian Candidate. For that, he is most certainly to blame. Without question.
When there isn't anything positive coming from anyone, it only makes sense for people to give the other side a shot. (as horrible as we know that could be)
At the very least, if you aren't offering anything positive AND have scandals pouring out of your ear, AND have a war that nobody articulates properly, AND have a spending problem, AND have people buggering kids in their offices...Well, people are gonna vote for the guy offering nothing positive that doesn't have all that other crap...
"BUT if the Federal government had stood up and DONE ITS MANDATED JOB"
Would a', could a', should a'...
Their here, Thier Queer... Oh wait....
Theier are 15-30 million of them now, and they aren't going anywhere, anytime soon, so we'll just have to deal with it, if we want to WIN...
The Border BS is going to subject us to at least 2, and possibly 10 years of absolute hell now...
Grandpa said never trust a man that values a suntan.
I declared myself after Campaign Finance Reform.
I was accustomed to seeing Democrats propose and support legislation which blatantly contradicted the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.
But when Republicans gleefully joined in, it became too much for me to stomach.
We need to obstuct their agenda while making it look like they are being obstructionists. We need to make them look like they are mean and nasty and hateful. Just like Clinton did to Newt. However, we need to do it with the media against us, which is much harder.
It can be done though. We need the right leaders to get it done. I'm not sure if we have people that could really pull it off. Bush would need to get with the program on that as well...not sure he's ready.
Me too, which is why I crossed party lines yet again to vote Republican this year.
And for what? To find that they had all but conceded their control of the nation to the Democrats -- who had no logical plan to speak of!
WTFO?!?
The Republicans had it all, and did what with it?
Sorry folks, if you want my vote next time, you're going to have to earn it.
I'm voting Libertarian next time -- unless perhaps a real Republican runs.
But if you lie to me again about what Republicans will do with control of the government, I will never vote for you again.
Hello? Any Republicans around here?
I can't vote for Republicans if they don't exist.
Rinos are our politcal body's cancer. We knew they were there but we just let em eat us away.
I wish someone would have made clear that we need both a wall and an effective means of legal immigration and work visas. The protocols required to immigrate legally are obscene, especially since they're only inflicted upon the law-abiding.
Excellent article and comments. Thanks for the ping. And today, Dennis Hastert declined to run for minority leader. No kidding.
If the Republicans pull back and regroup, moving forward with a positive agenda that is clearly spelled out and articulated, please don't take the sins of the past out on them.
The Republicans lost their way. If you think they haven't found it next time, by all means, go Libertarian. But give em a chance if they can pull it together! :)
Better yet; BE an ACTIVE participant in the Republicans pulling it together. Find out what you can do working from the ground up to reattach the party to the conservative priciples that served it so well for so long.
All this post-mortem about Republicans, but the big thing weu have lost is our position in the world. The enemies are rejoicing because you have given the mid-east away and probably Asia too. We have elected people who want quick solutions to big problems. Hezbollah remembers our allies clinging to the helocopters in Saigon as we abandoned them. Watch for Iraq to cozy up to Iran as they know we cannot be trusted. Pelosi and company love mass genocide and can't wait to unleash on the people who wanted to be free in Iraq and trusted us. Sunni muslims should consider converting to Shia, they are the power in the middle now.
Even better, though I haven't the foggiest idea where to start with that.
Thanks bitt. Good article and some good posts up there too!
The Republicans lost their way. If you think they haven't found it next time, by all means, go Libertarian. But give em a chance if they can pull it together! :)"
Fair enough.
The Republicans have two years to regain the trust they so thoughtlessly betrayed.
And for God's sake, please tell those idiots who use the term "Liberdopian" to shut the hell up.
They are an asset to the Democrats and a liability to the Republicans. Get rid of them.
And thanks for addressing me as a fellow human being.
That alone can go a long way toward gaining my trust -- and my vote. :^)
Max Baucus (MT)At least six vulnerable is quite an overstatement, IMO.
Joseph Biden (DE)
Richard Durbin (IL)
Tom Harkin (IA)
Tim Johnson (SD)
John Kerry (MA)
Mary Landrieu (LA)
Frank Lautenberg (NJ)
Carl Levin (MI)
Mark Pryor (AR)
Jack Reed (RI)
John Rockefeller (WV)
Well, yes. When you badly lose an election it is generally the result of poor turnout among your voters. The question is, why didn't more Republicans turn out? Hugh Hewitt hits on some very interesting answers here.
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