Posted on 11/08/2006 8:08:12 AM PST by Matchett-PI
Has Our Time Come? http://www.hereticalideas.com/
A **new study from the Cato Institute [see link below] suggests that libertarians might be the new swing vote.
The libertarian vote is in play. At some 13 percent of the electorate, it is sizable enough to swing elections. Pollsters, political strategists, candidates, and the media should take note of it.
After examining the relevant polling data, Cato concludes that libertarians and libertarian sympathizers constitute somewhere between 10 and 20% of the American population. Some explanations are offered as to why libertarians constitute such a bigger constituency than one might expect. First is that libertarians tend not to be as well-organized as other interest groups. Most groups that organize and try to exert political influence want some sort of government action: unions want favorable labor laws passed, the Christian Coalition wants abortion outlawed and anti-homosexual laws passed, environmentalists want pollution restricted and ecosystems protected, businesses want favorable tax and commercial laws. Libertarians generally don’t want government to take action, and are therefore less likely to organize into a pressure group because of that. It also argues that the difficulty people have in breaking out of the left-right liberal-conservative paradigm of politics keeps “populists” (authoritarians) and libertarians underrepresented. While most political scholarship accepts the inadequacy of a simple one-dimensional view of politics, it hasn’t sunk down into popular culture as strongly. Often talk shows and debate programs on television and radio will feature someone “from the left” and someone “from the right”, squeezing libertarians out of the picture.
An unexplored reason that might contribute is the higher prevalence of libertarianism among younger people than older people. The Cato paper notes this statistic but doesn’t explore its relationship to voter turnout. It explains the phenomenon this way. Younger people were more influenced by 2 of the most significant individualist movements of the 20th century: the ’60s counter culture and the ’80s Reagan Revolution. As a result, younger generations have seen both the socially liberal and the economically conservative side of individualism and turn to libertarianism as a way to emulate both ideals. The downside is that since younger people in general are less likely to vote, libertarians wind up underrepresented at the polls.
But don’t libertarian have to swing their votes to become a swing vote? Well, more and more frequently libertarian-minded people are losing the loyalty to the party they usually vote for (mostly the GOP), which puts their vote as a bloc in play.
Many commentators noted the high turnout in the 2004 election. Nationally, voter turnout increased 6.1 percent. That might help explain some of the swing in 2004. According to ANES data, libertarians reported turning out to vote at higher percentages than total respondents in 2000 and even higher in 2004.
This libertarian swing trend is particularly pronounced by age. Libertarians aged 18–29 many of whom were new voters in 2004 voted 71–42 for Kerry. Libertarians aged 30–49 voted almost completely the reverse, 72–21 for Bush.
Going back to the generational argument, I imagine that older individuals who can remember a time when the religious Right wasn’t nearly as omnipresent of a force in the Republican Party and therefore don’t automatically associate it with tirades about the moral dangers of homosexuality and feticide. So I can understand younger libertarians leaning more democratic than older ones who might remember the time of more Goldwater-like or even maybe Reagan-like Republicans.
What does all this mean in practical terms? What will we see coming out of the major political parties Conservatives resist cultural change and personal liberation; liberals resist economic dynamism and globalization. Libertarians embrace both. The political party that comes to terms with that can win the next generation.
It would really be great to see both political parties converge to a libertarian center. But as the article points out, the nature of libertarians makes them much harder to corral than other groups, which makes attracting us to their political parties a far more expensive and riskier proposition than going after churchgoers and soccer moms. Perhaps in time it will happen. But I doubt it will happen very soon.
** http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1718392/posts
LOL! I can hardly wait for the Democrat tax increases. I'm sure giving them more of your money will sooth your mean libertarian streak tremendously.
I guess we'll have to lose a few more elections using the "shut up and vote for us, stupid!" method before we learn anything.
Libertarians are Democrats. Fiscally conservative Democrats.
If we have tax increases, it's because the Republicans and the President have let us down.
LOL! It will be because you got what you deserve...nothing else.
Noone is required to vote one way or another. Start looking at what the GOP did that drove people to the Libertarians.
LOL! You're an idiot! I got what I deserved by voting for a straight Republican ticket? You just made my point. Thank you!
No, you see, you've got it wrong-
The GOP has a God-given right to everybody's vote, and anybody who doesn't recognize this and doesn't vote for them is being a slime ball. I mean, we even toss them a crumb every year or so, and they still defect! The nerve!
Quiz:
Who is more Republican?
A) Lincoln Chaffee
B) Zell Miller
They will set the agenda, and invite who they want to the party. They are and will be the power brokers. Fail to yield to their overwhelming power and you will be nothing more than refuge in the political landscape.
I hate to break this to you but Zell Miller wasn't running.
Your lack of answer shows that you know I'm right.
Whom do you propose replacing them with?
Huge? I don't think so. What's your definition of conservative?
Your statement is self contradictory.
CAn you name one politician you consider worthy of your vote?
Does that make you the pretty cheerleader who will put out for anyone in a team jersey?
You stated that I didn't know the difference between a Republican and a Democrat. So I posed a quiz to you to see if you could tell the difference. You just refuse to answer the question.
The reality of this election is that President Bush and the Republican Party have let down their base. The base stayed home or voted a protest vote. Even the President admitted this, why can't you?
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