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Warning: What to Expect
Self | 11/7/06 | LS

Posted on 11/07/2006 4:29:51 PM PST by LS

All right, folks. Guess I have to do it again around here and hand out the chill pills.

1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.

2) I know this from the turnout numbers, just as I did in 2004. The fact is, forget Indies. They don't vote in high numbers. It's all about the two parties, and who gets out their base.

We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.

As I predicted, we are seeing a Dem UNDERVOTE. They are underperforming, esp. in key states such as OH. However, they are underperforming far worse than even I dreamed. We are looking at 20% in Cuyahoga County! Brown and Strickland couldn't get elected dog catcher with that level of support.

SO HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT: THE MEDIA IDIOTS HAVE THEIR TEMPLATES. THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME AROUND. IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT, BECAUSE THEY WON'T BELIEVE THEIR EYES.

They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: democrats; election; imdrunk; realclearamateur; republicans; returns; roveyoudumbass; thisguyhasnoclue; toast; wasteofbandwidth; whothhellisthisguy
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Comment #81 Removed by Moderator

To: ken5050

bttt


82 posted on 11/07/2006 4:42:10 PM PST by Guenevere
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To: knightshadow
only 13% had voted as of 2pm to day in Cuyahoga County and thats really bad news ofr Brown and strickland....if it doesn't improve. Cuyahoga county is like 75% dem.

I think these polls showing overwelming wins for the Dem gov/senate candidates just encouraged the DimRATS to stay home in bed today instead of getting up to vote.

83 posted on 11/07/2006 4:42:39 PM PST by thingumbob (Dead terrorists don't make more terrorists!)
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To: LS
Impossible! Conservative voters THINK! Even if they are mad at some of the recent actions of the Republicans, they know that the Dems are unfit to run the country in their present condition of craziness. BTW, LS,thanks for all of your optimism and encouragement the past few weeks. It kept me going!!
84 posted on 11/07/2006 4:42:46 PM PST by srmorton (Choose life!)
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To: LS

placemark


85 posted on 11/07/2006 4:42:48 PM PST by grellis (God bless the 2006 American League Champion Detroit Tigers...the roar RESTORED!)
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To: katieanna

The voter turnout numbers posted on hotline, and all over FR today. With this level of turnout (more than 60%, or higher than 2004 [!]), it's damn near impossible for the GOP to lose many races. Moreover, we are seeing evidence everywhere of Dem underperformance.


86 posted on 11/07/2006 4:42:55 PM PST by LS
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To: kittymyrib
Correction:

The msm is still stuck in the 1960s
87 posted on 11/07/2006 4:42:58 PM PST by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM 53 : 1 The FOOL hath said in his heart , There is no GOD .)
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To: LS

Looking at FOX... I think LS may have just jumped the gun big time.


88 posted on 11/07/2006 4:43:00 PM PST by ruschpa
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

Also, hard to do exit polls on absentee ballots.


89 posted on 11/07/2006 4:43:28 PM PST by doc1019
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To: Gordongekko909

If we make gains, I will have to watch all the shows the rest of the week just to revel in it. I don't have that kind of time. (what to wish for)


90 posted on 11/07/2006 4:43:32 PM PST by tioga (Jon Carry is a pompous fool.)
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To: LS

If you're right I'll be sure not to walk near any tall buildings tomorrow.


91 posted on 11/07/2006 4:43:32 PM PST by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: LS

How are you receiving the data on "Turnout Numbers"? Is it solid info or speculation?


92 posted on 11/07/2006 4:43:40 PM PST by Michael Barnes (May Satan grip the souls of those with American blood on their hands)
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To: LS

I think you are being optimistic


93 posted on 11/07/2006 4:44:37 PM PST by AppyPappy (If you aren't part of the solution, there is good money to be made prolonging the problem.)
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To: LS
I'm optimistic also.

I think that we have done a good job with turnout, so let's hope for the best.

94 posted on 11/07/2006 4:44:43 PM PST by snowsislander
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To: ken5050
LOL! All I know is that my (sigh) democrat artist/librarian daughter scratched her all-Rat ticket and voted for Dickerson (GOP) for Congress over Julia Carson, the Embarassment of Indiana. I bet the pollsters didn't figure out THAT vote!

Lots of interesting stuff going on, but I am sticking to the Food Network and selected threads here. I don't need all of the hand-wrinigng and angst from our weenie pundits.

I propose we band together for a true conservative network with selected Freepers doing commentary. It would be outside the Beltway, normal people news, and it would be far more literate and funny....plus NO missing blondes or car chases!

95 posted on 11/07/2006 4:44:56 PM PST by Miss Marple (Lord, please look over Mozart Lover's and Jemian's sons and keep them strong.```````````````````````)
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To: LS

Bookmark for tommorrows celebration!!!


96 posted on 11/07/2006 4:45:04 PM PST by JDoutrider
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To: ken5050

Exactly.


97 posted on 11/07/2006 4:45:13 PM PST by LS
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To: AZ GOPher
I posted actual poll results, not idle speculation, from KY-03.

You posted numbers that you typed into a reply box.

98 posted on 11/07/2006 4:45:13 PM PST by vbmoneyspender
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To: PigRigger

According to our paper, both Ohio (next door) and Indiana, you had to have a photo ID, signature match etc etc. It will prevent a lot of the dead from voting and the living from voting twice.


99 posted on 11/07/2006 4:45:39 PM PST by Battle Axe (Repent for the coming of the Lord is nigh!)
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To: LS

Thank you for your reply. Regards.


100 posted on 11/07/2006 4:45:42 PM PST by katieanna
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