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Warning: What to Expect
Self | 11/7/06 | LS

Posted on 11/07/2006 4:29:51 PM PST by LS

All right, folks. Guess I have to do it again around here and hand out the chill pills.

1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.

2) I know this from the turnout numbers, just as I did in 2004. The fact is, forget Indies. They don't vote in high numbers. It's all about the two parties, and who gets out their base.

We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.

As I predicted, we are seeing a Dem UNDERVOTE. They are underperforming, esp. in key states such as OH. However, they are underperforming far worse than even I dreamed. We are looking at 20% in Cuyahoga County! Brown and Strickland couldn't get elected dog catcher with that level of support.

SO HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT: THE MEDIA IDIOTS HAVE THEIR TEMPLATES. THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME AROUND. IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT, BECAUSE THEY WON'T BELIEVE THEIR EYES.

They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: democrats; election; imdrunk; realclearamateur; republicans; returns; roveyoudumbass; thisguyhasnoclue; toast; wasteofbandwidth; whothhellisthisguy
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To: kinoxi

CNN just called For Strickland In Ohio...


21 posted on 11/07/2006 4:33:38 PM PST by tcrlaf (VOTE DEM! You'll Look GREAT In A Burqa!)
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To: LS

I have no doubts. Hate never wins and that's all the Dems have been pushing.


22 posted on 11/07/2006 4:33:44 PM PST by debg
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To: LS

"My only caveat would be if Republicans indeed hated the GOP so much that they would all vote for Dems."

And is that a valid caveat? My initial instinct tells me that actual Republicans - NOT independents - would simply not vote at all, rather than turn out in record numbers to vote FOR dim-wit-crats.


23 posted on 11/07/2006 4:33:49 PM PST by knightshadow
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To: LS

CNN just announced that Strickland is the winner as governor...

Are they that far off??

Ed


24 posted on 11/07/2006 4:33:52 PM PST by Sir_Ed
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To: LS
Can I be the first?


25 posted on 11/07/2006 4:33:54 PM PST by Petronski (Why won't Diebold talk about RYMB.DLL?)
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To: LS

Thanks for the good news, we can use all we can get! Have a great evening everyone, and remember Rush's caller today. If you get worried, go to his web site and read the transcript.


26 posted on 11/07/2006 4:33:54 PM PST by trustandobey
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To: LS

Dude, not to be mean, but what are you smoking? Here's the latest on Northup in KY-03 (actuals):

John Yarmuth D 79,234 50.1%
Anne M. Northup R 77,182 48.8%
Donna Walker Mancini L 1,333 0.8%
W. Ed Parker C 473 0.3%

65.7% of the precincts reporting.


27 posted on 11/07/2006 4:33:57 PM PST by AZ GOPher
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To: LS

Blackwell lost.....what else are you hearing


28 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:01 PM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestu s globus, inflammare animos)
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To: Peach

I told my congressman last night (head of intelligence committee)that I predicted a GOP loss of six in the house and gain of 1 in the Senate. He smiled alot and liked my predictions.


29 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:04 PM PST by westmichman (The minds of the media and Dems are one-dementional..."HATE Bush")
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To: LS

If you are right, I'll have 6 glasses of wine tonight.


30 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:12 PM PST by unkus
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To: LS

I hope you're right, but I think you're jumping the gun BIG TIME here...


31 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:12 PM PST by ruschpa
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To: LS

I wanna be depressed and mad....this not what I want to hear


32 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:14 PM PST by woofie (If not this war then which one?)
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To: LS
Let me get this straight; we shouldn't get our indies in a wad?
33 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:23 PM PST by vetvetdoug
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To: LS

Still praying...and praying you are right!


34 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:34 PM PST by Miss Didi
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To: LS
LS.....you have secured your place in heaven I'm sure of it

and if you haven't, then I'm going to incur the rath of God myself and demand that he let you IN!

35 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:36 PM PST by thingumbob (Dead terrorists don't make more terrorists!)
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To: LS
I've been thinking the same thing. I have no exotic computer programs nor men/women doing 'exit polls' (Who in their right mind would tell them anyway? I wouldn't! None of their dang business!). I am optimistic and eagerly await the official outcome.
36 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:38 PM PST by GW and Twins Pawpaw (Sheepdog for Five [My grandkids are way more important than any lefty's feelings!])
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Comment #37 Removed by Moderator

To: LS
Please tell me how you know turnout is large?

Are you taking Ohio turnout and projecting nationally? Do you have insight on national turnout?

We are the faithful but skepticism keeps struggling to the top.
38 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:54 PM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. Rozerem gives me nightmares)
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To: LS

Great!

I shall await the MSM meltown prior to gloating ;-)


39 posted on 11/07/2006 4:34:59 PM PST by DakotaGator (I love the sound of sobbing MSM in the morning. It sounds like...victory!)
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To: LS

Place mark.


40 posted on 11/07/2006 4:35:22 PM PST by Frank Sheed (Tá brón orainn. Níl Spáinnis againn anseo.)
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