[LS]

Jim Geraghty and Obi wan have been just about the ONLY voices of optimism, even at NRO. He was consistently right in 2004, on everything.

I think his prediction on the House is off. I don't think it gets closer than 5-6, with a GOP win.

[Aetius]

I hope he's right again.

[finnman69]

I hope you are and Obi Wan are right

[Timeout]

The Jedi Council...LOL!

Did Obi Wan go to them in '04? I don't remember that and, believe me, I hung on Geraghty's every word that day.

[Bahbah]

Kyl is up 12

YES!!!! This is one of the finest men ever to be in the Senate.

[kesg]

May the force be with Obi Wan. He is about the only semi-optimistic voice I've heard that I actually trust as knowing about what might actually happen.

[meg88]

thank you, Obi Wan you are most wise indeed...

[Dems_R_Losers]

My fear is that this is like 1976. President Ford came all the way from 17 points down in the polls on Labor Day to two points the day before the election. Many of us were sure the country was just not going to reject him for the lightweight Jimmy Carter. But in the end he ran out of time and lost. My concern is that the Republican tide this year has just run out of time. The Mark Foley thing just killed the GOP momentum after the 9/11 anniversary, and the Saddam verdict happened a few days too late. The weeks of bad polls also had an effect of their own, because it is well documented that a small percentage of voters will vote for whoever they think is going to win.

[Grampa Dave]

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Interesting Star Wars version of the vote.

[monkapotamus]

[Soul Seeker]

UPDATE: And yes, I covered my bases, predicting a 218-217 Democratic House majority on NRO, and predicting a 218-217 Republican House majority in the Washington Examiner. (Either way, I can say I predicted the correct party in print ahead of time!) Seriously, I think it will be that close.

Dick still has him beat. Moris has flip flopped about half a dozen times now in the last couple of weeks. Somestimes within hours of each other.

The GOP has a sustained momentum. That will carry a few wavering seats over the line. I stay with my prediction the Reps will not lose more then nine in the House, probably closer to 5-6 and if everything flows just right could do even better with Dem seas switching hands.

The GOP will not do worse then 52 in the Senate, 53-54 more realistic. And depending on the strength of this momentum they could conceivably do better.

[Petronski]

As much as we mock pollsters, these people are professionals – well, okay, there’s Zogby...

[Soul Seeker]

Oh, and nice to see him picking up on one of the dark horse candidates I said to keep an eye on. LOL

Another is Kennedy, though he's not as close as Bouchard.

The two upsets would be Harris and Santorum. No, I'm not making a prediction there will be just stating those are the only two races that would fit the criteria of an upset.

Steele, Bouchard, Chafee, DeWine and Kennedy I do not feel would be "true upsets" as they aren't completely written off as of today. Some may be longshots (Kennedy) but small margin still open.

BTW, everyone in Penn get out and vote for Santorum. Give it your best shot and try to save this seat for him.

[uglybiker]

The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters.

Moreover, Republicans have gained ground in recent weeks on measures aimed at assessing a voter's likelihood of voting.

[Lando Lincoln]

Thanks LS, I've been watching for this. I've lived in both Pennsylvania (Lehigh Valley) and Ohio (near Youngstown) - I wish I could vote in either state today instead of Denny Hastert's neck-of-the-woods. Polls close today in Illinois at 7:00 pm. I'm going to try to stay away from the tube until about 9:00 pm. (FreeRepublic is another matter.) Should have meaningful results from the east by then. I will pray the mojo is in our favor.

Sincere thanks for all your efforts. As I said before, you're a FReeper treasure.

Lando

[Tamar1973]

Obi Wan continued laying out the case ...Yoda and the other members of the Jedi Council prodded him...

[Mr. Silverback]

I agree. They get no closer than six. The look on Schumer's face yesterday was telling. It was not a "Well, we won't get the Senate, but Pelosi will be Speaker" face, it was a "Oh man, those internals are death on a bun" face.

My prediction: The GOP holds the House, the Dems learn nothing from their defeat, and John Kerry continues to suck like a jet-powered Shop Vac until the day he dies.

[1035rep]

bttt

[pgkdan]

As the New Republic editors noted, the poll showed a particularly surprising drop in the Democratic generic ballot advantage in the Northeast, from a 26 point margin to a 9 point one. Where are the House seats the Democrats want to pick up? ...quite a few are in Connecticut, New York, and Pennsylvania (and, apparently at one point, New Hampshire).
[Jim’s observation/question: If the bottom fell out for Democrats in blue states like these, how likely is it that their candidates are holding their ground in red states like Indiana and Kentucky?]

I'd read alot about the move to the right in the PEW and Gallup polls but didn't realize that so much of it was concentrated in the NE. That's pretty significant IMHO. If democrat support is weak in NJ and NY anything's possible.

[Lando Lincoln]

Looking at the current weather map, it looks like the Jedi-climatrol is working in most of the metro areas. Rain in Toledo, Dayton, Cleveland, Akron, Cincinnati, Youngstown.... Now, we need a climactic disturbance in points east.....