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Needles Are Moving (Insider: Projected GOP Losses Looking Closer to 10 in the House)
ABP.com ^ | November 5, 2006 11.43 | Pat Hynes

Posted on 11/06/2006 10:10:55 AM PST by meg88

Jim Geraghty has noticed it. MSNBC sees it. The Washington Post sees it. Even liberal blogger Jerome Armstrong, who appeared on my radio show on Saturday, was only cautiously optimistic about Tuesday, with an emphasis on the cautious.

And my sources in Washington tell me the 2006 election is, like the melting New Hampshire snows after that first sustained burst of spring sunshine, a heck of a lot muddier than it used to be just a few days ago. And that’s good news for Republicans, because it is the Democrats’ lead that’s melting away.

Internal Republican polls from around the country are showing a modest, yet consistent and noticeable trend in favor of Republican candidates. Note: these trends appeared before Saddam Hussein was found guilty of war crimes and sentenced to death—a turn of events Karl Rove himself could not have timed better for Republicans.

“What you are hearing is a collective sigh of Republican relief after this latest round of data has come in,” one high-level Republican consultant in Washington told me. “Word is already starting to spread that the prophesied ‘tidal wave’ might only be a ripple.”

One high-profile Republican pundit could hardly contain his glee that the prognosticators would be proved wrong, again. “If the present Republican surge is real and continues through Tuesday, Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, and John Zogby will be stripped bare of any credibility when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes,” he stated. “Personally, I hope they go out of business.”

Specifically, sources tell me that the Tennessee, Missouri, and Montana Senate races continue to trend toward the Republicans. Michael Steele, the Republican nominee for US Senate in Maryland is in a dead heat with Ben Cardin. Even Senate races Republicans have written off are showing positive trends: Mike DeWine in Ohio and Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania are said to be “surging.”

In the House Republicans are now rapidly lowering estimates of how many seats they might lose. “Whereas a week ago we were looking at the possibility of losing 25 seats, we now think that number is closer to 10,” a Congressional Republican insider told me.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: 2006
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1 posted on 11/06/2006 10:10:57 AM PST by meg88
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To: meg88

Glad of this insight, but no laurel-resting!


2 posted on 11/06/2006 10:12:19 AM PST by wideawake ("The nation which forgets its defenders will itself be forgotten." - Calvin Coolidge)
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To: meg88

I had it at 9 or 10 GOP House losses last week. I may have been too pessimistic. :-)


3 posted on 11/06/2006 10:12:33 AM PST by Coop (FR = a lotta talk, but little action)
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To: wideawake

Thank you, John Kerry!


4 posted on 11/06/2006 10:13:31 AM PST by kaehurowing
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To: Coop

I predicted 12 or 13.


5 posted on 11/06/2006 10:13:38 AM PST by meg88
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To: meg88

You should listen to Rush today....the polls he's been
quoting look very good for the GOP.


6 posted on 11/06/2006 10:13:50 AM PST by july4thfreedomfoundation (U.S. out of the U.N., and the U.N. out of the U.S.!)
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To: meg88

This will only come to pass if we make SURE to get out and vote, and encourage all our Republican friends to do the same!


7 posted on 11/06/2006 10:14:10 AM PST by SuziQ
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To: meg88

more good news....

I'm going to vote again tomorrow, just to celebrate the surging GOP!


8 posted on 11/06/2006 10:14:10 AM PST by ConservativeDude
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To: meg88

I have yet to see any of these analyses on how many House seats the GOP would lose take into account very prime pick up opportunities of two Dem House seats in Georgia, one in Indiana (Julia Carson's seat) and one in Illinois (Melissa Bean's seat.) The assumption for so long has been GOP wipeout that none of these analysts take into account a few GOP pickup opportunities in their numbers. That could be the great spoiler of tomorrow night's quickly souring party for the Dems.


9 posted on 11/06/2006 10:14:10 AM PST by MikeA (Not voting Nov. 7 because you're pouting is PRECISELY what Speaker Wannabe Pelosi wants you to do!)
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To: Nancee
Even Senate races Republicans have written off are showing positive trends: Mike DeWine in Ohio and Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania are said to be “surging.”

Ping!

10 posted on 11/06/2006 10:14:16 AM PST by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: meg88

My prediction from last Sunday of a 222 GOP House members and 53 GOP Senators is looking good! ;-)


11 posted on 11/06/2006 10:14:38 AM PST by HitmanLV ("If at first you don't succeed, keep on sucking until you do succeed." - Jerry 'Curly' Howard)
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To: kaehurowing

CHUCK TODD - poll prognosticator for MSNBC & National Journal just admitted HIS WIFE WORKS FOR WEBB CAMPAIGN!


12 posted on 11/06/2006 10:15:05 AM PST by Steven W.
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To: meg88

Does that mean that Chuckie Rangel will be quitting the House? I seem to remember him saying just that.


13 posted on 11/06/2006 10:15:35 AM PST by noname07718
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To: kaehurowing

As John points out, the fact that Democrats' 15-point advantage among white women last month has turned into a 2-point disadvantage today is incredibly ominous. Unfortunately, it's not quite as ominous as the erosion in the Democrats' advantage among Northeasterners: from 26 points to 9. The Northeast is, of course, a region where Democrats are banking on roughly half a dozen pick-ups. That kind of dropoff isn't going to get the job done. (One bright spot: the Dems' advantage in the Midwest held steady.)

The only result John and I disagree on is the fallout from the Kerry joke. Nearly 20 percent of independents told Pew that the joke raised doubts in their minds about voting Democratic (versus 36 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Dems). John thinks that's a disastrously high number. I think it could be bad news, but it need not be. My feeling is that a good quarter to a third of all independents are basically Republicans.


14 posted on 11/06/2006 10:15:53 AM PST by meg88
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To: kaehurowing

What?


15 posted on 11/06/2006 10:16:18 AM PST by wideawake ("The nation which forgets its defenders will itself be forgotten." - Calvin Coolidge)
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To: kaehurowing

Oh, you were addressing the actual John Kerry.


16 posted on 11/06/2006 10:16:47 AM PST by wideawake ("The nation which forgets its defenders will itself be forgotten." - Calvin Coolidge)
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To: meg88

My gawd, if "MSNBC sees it" - it must be HUGH!


17 posted on 11/06/2006 10:17:19 AM PST by bigbob (2)
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To: meg88

Hopefully, it will be the "moderate" ie liberal GOPers who lose and not the conservatives.


18 posted on 11/06/2006 10:17:55 AM PST by Brilliant
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To: meg88

WOW! Im seeing the possibility that keeping the House IS a real and within reach.

the Gop will hold the Senate losing 3 seats. I was thinking a House loss of 25 seats, but now I'm thinking about hedging downward. Only losing 10 seats would be an incredible upset.


19 posted on 11/06/2006 10:17:58 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestu s globus, inflammare animos)
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To: meg88

Some advice from hughhewitt.com

Jerry Ford had a huge amount of momentum in the closing days of the 1976 campaign, so much so that Time Magazine had to prepare two covers for the post-election issue, one for each presidential candidate. But not enough. The result was Jimmy Carter and Carter's legacies in Iran and North Korea.

So sign up for the GOTV effort. It is easy, effective and could well make the difference in many close races.

http://www.gop.com/NeighborToNeighbor/Signup.aspx?refid=27

From:
http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/g/5be2f364-d06d-494c-bd18-e3434da28511


20 posted on 11/06/2006 10:18:14 AM PST by bnelson44 (Proud parent of a tanker! (Charlie Mike, son))
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