Posted on 11/06/2006 10:10:55 AM PST by meg88
Glad of this insight, but no laurel-resting!
I had it at 9 or 10 GOP House losses last week. I may have been too pessimistic. :-)
Thank you, John Kerry!
I predicted 12 or 13.
You should listen to Rush today....the polls he's been
quoting look very good for the GOP.
This will only come to pass if we make SURE to get out and vote, and encourage all our Republican friends to do the same!
more good news....
I'm going to vote again tomorrow, just to celebrate the surging GOP!
I have yet to see any of these analyses on how many House seats the GOP would lose take into account very prime pick up opportunities of two Dem House seats in Georgia, one in Indiana (Julia Carson's seat) and one in Illinois (Melissa Bean's seat.) The assumption for so long has been GOP wipeout that none of these analysts take into account a few GOP pickup opportunities in their numbers. That could be the great spoiler of tomorrow night's quickly souring party for the Dems.
Ping!
My prediction from last Sunday of a 222 GOP House members and 53 GOP Senators is looking good! ;-)
CHUCK TODD - poll prognosticator for MSNBC & National Journal just admitted HIS WIFE WORKS FOR WEBB CAMPAIGN!
Does that mean that Chuckie Rangel will be quitting the House? I seem to remember him saying just that.
As John points out, the fact that Democrats' 15-point advantage among white women last month has turned into a 2-point disadvantage today is incredibly ominous. Unfortunately, it's not quite as ominous as the erosion in the Democrats' advantage among Northeasterners: from 26 points to 9. The Northeast is, of course, a region where Democrats are banking on roughly half a dozen pick-ups. That kind of dropoff isn't going to get the job done. (One bright spot: the Dems' advantage in the Midwest held steady.)
The only result John and I disagree on is the fallout from the Kerry joke. Nearly 20 percent of independents told Pew that the joke raised doubts in their minds about voting Democratic (versus 36 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Dems). John thinks that's a disastrously high number. I think it could be bad news, but it need not be. My feeling is that a good quarter to a third of all independents are basically Republicans.
What?
Oh, you were addressing the actual John Kerry.
My gawd, if "MSNBC sees it" - it must be HUGH!
Hopefully, it will be the "moderate" ie liberal GOPers who lose and not the conservatives.
WOW! Im seeing the possibility that keeping the House IS a real and within reach.
the Gop will hold the Senate losing 3 seats. I was thinking a House loss of 25 seats, but now I'm thinking about hedging downward. Only losing 10 seats would be an incredible upset.
Some advice from hughhewitt.com
Jerry Ford had a huge amount of momentum in the closing days of the 1976 campaign, so much so that Time Magazine had to prepare two covers for the post-election issue, one for each presidential candidate. But not enough. The result was Jimmy Carter and Carter's legacies in Iran and North Korea.
So sign up for the GOTV effort. It is easy, effective and could well make the difference in many close races.
http://www.gop.com/NeighborToNeighbor/Signup.aspx?refid=27
From:
http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/g/5be2f364-d06d-494c-bd18-e3434da28511
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