Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
*ping*
Maybe we pick UP seats, can you imagine the media and leftist meltdown. Too delicious.
I wish Mason Dixon polled in Michigan - I'm curious to know where that race stands.
It may be a cliche, but it's true: Southerners don't much care for people that get too big for their britches, and Harold Ford, Jr has been walking around with an ego the size of Graceland for the last month or two. Between that and Corker's infamous "I met Harold at the Playboy Mansion!" ad (which worked beautifully, as most negative ads do), Ford is history.
Let's not forget that we can thank the MSM for much of this, since it's them that's being feeding Harold's ego by treating him as if he's already won the 2012 presidential election.
I know Casey has a name, but the guy is a enigma on the issues. I'm not from PA and can't see Santorum getting the boot. He ias a stand up guy who represents the people from PA well.
Anybody know what the internal polls are saying.
If Santorum wins the only drawback will be the whining, bitter claims of Diebold stole another election from the moonbat left.
Posted by olde north church to olde north church; All
On News/Activism ^ 10/22/2006 10:59:04 PM EDT · 177 of 472 ^
Pelosi is a -UNT, C what I'm saying?
Predictions for November 7 ...
Charges of voter intimidation, "broken" voting machines, long lines, etc. add fraud in every close and near close race
but...
Senate add 2 to majority, a Senator Steele from Maryland and a Senator Kean from NJ.
Another Dem loss will be the CT, where Senator Leiberman, IND.
Add 3+ to House of Represenatives.
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I posted this about 3 weeks ago on the Drudge Radio Thread ...
I think this could happen. Allen, Talent, Burns, Chafee, Steele will gut out close wins. I believe Corker will get it done in Tennessee, Kyle in Arizona. And I think Kean and Dewine have a shot. So let's go out there and win.
George Allen is my favorite Senator. I hope he wins. I think he will.
Corker is a lock.
Here, in Chicago, my vote doesn't count for much but I'm voting anyhow (the way I always do.)
Folks, who cares what Mason-whomever guesses the result will be. In the end, they are no different than any of the other polling outfits.
Just show up on Tuesday.
Hopefully one day all of these polling clowns can be put out of business.
George Allen is my favorite Senator. I hope he wins. I think he will.
Hope he wins.
Hope he learned a few things about high profile campaigns.
"Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio."
There has been an ad running in Ohio that is devastating against Sherrod Brown. It is a female Ohio DEA agent who was involved in a drug investigation of Brown's office. She then goes on to say that the ODEA was there not once but three times and a woman who worked for Brown, involved in drugs, was given a promotion and raise, after the fact.
Pray, and Vote!
Santorum has run a weak, defensive campaign from the start, and Pennsylvania has been trending blue for a long time now.
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