I'm a bumper sticker crankin' FOOL this weekend!
Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
I agree with you on that as well, if we lose one, better the house than the senate. Especially regarding the recent news (or rumor) about a retirement in December from the USSC (Stevens). It is imperative we keep the senate; but I think we keep the house as well (gut feeling).
Couldn't have said it better myself! :)
Most Independents are going to vote Republican....not for anything they have or haven't done but because of what democrats have. Independents may not be happy campers but they are not enemies of this country.
The Dems and the DBM have known all along that the Dem base was apathetic that is precisely why they've poured all their demonic energies into supressing Republican turnout.
--He might stay Senator Allen, but he won't be President Allen with those numbers.--
That's a bloody shame. On the other hand, being a 'Washington Insider Politician' could work against him in 2008.
A Gov. or someone like Giuliani would have a better shot at the WH. Allen may still be in the mix for VP, however.
IMO, Pennsylvania has succumbed to a multi-decade invasion of northeast liberalism, just like New Jersey did many years ago.
The political demographics are aligning around a liberal stronghold in the northeast and stretching west through Wisconsin and south to, well, the south, with some infiltration of Florida by NE retirees, and then in California and finally in the Pacific northwest (home to The less liberal alignment has been in the south (more evangelical conservative) and central/west (more libertarian conservative).
The key to Democrats regaining power is with the demographic changes owing to Kennedy's "Immigration Reform" law which the Republicans stupidly backed in the late 60's. Kennedy and the democrats calculated that, while their increasing liberalism would lose the south, they could more than make up the difference with massive immigration from Mexico. Only history will tell if they calculated correctly.
Panelists on the "McLaughlin Group" unanimously agreed that Menendez will win because NJ is locked perpetually to the Democrats. No nominal GOP Senate candidate has won there since 1972.
Yeah, that's nice. And no Republican has won a Senate race in Maryland in almost as many years. And in Pennsylvania, before 1991 (special election), no Democrat had won a Senate race since the 60's.
Could it be that Specter's cancer keeps him from active campaigning? But I bet Specter won't mind at all to see Rick defeated. Hardly anyone expects Rick to pull out a win at this point.
At least her being a native Canadian prevents her from being on a ticket for v.p. People in MI are still looking for government to rescue them from some dreadful danger.
I saw that ad, I live in Beaver Falls so I get the Ads from Ohio. It is very devastating to Brown. Wouldn't be great if Dewine and Santorum pulled it out. I hear there are similar allegations coming out against Casey tomorrow. Cross your Fingers, Pray and Vote! Go GOP
The last nominal Republican Senate win in MD was 1980. "The McLaughlin Group" admitted that Steele has been a good candidate but he cannot win in that Democrat stranglehold.
The McLaughlin Group panelists said that OH is turning heavily Democratic throughout, and this is bad news for a Republican presidential nominee in 2008. Kerry would of course be in office now had he won in OH.
I hope to God he is right. The Senate without Santorum would be a sad place.
Here's hoping that voter fraud in Philly and Pittsburgh doesn't decide the PA races.
Keep praying. I am.
HELL YEA! GREAT JOB!
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