Republicans close in on generic ballot. (WashPost/ABC: Dems-51 Repubs-45 among LV).

Washington Post | 11/5/06

[Ravi]

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 1-4, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,205 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

[PhiKapMom]

You cannot do a nationwide poll for Congressional elections because those are local elections. Here in OK we will be returning 4 Republican Congressman and 1 DINO but we don't count in a nationwide poll.

[italianquaker]

plus weekend days hmmmmmmmmm

[1035rep]

bttt

[SmoothTalker]

Good. Lets hope we have "Uncle Mo" on our side.

[JLS]

I agree. I have been saying the last week or so that the GOP will win Tn, Va, Mt, Mo and maybe MD. That would make the losses, OH and PA. For a next loss of 1. If Joe caucused with the GOP that would be a break even situation.

Like you I don't count Chafee for anything but trouble as he has been with Bolton.

[1035rep]

bttt

[FairOpinion]

Thanks for posting the historical data!

In 1994 the generic polls were almost even and there was a Republican sweep.

Now the Dems are ahead, but that doesn't necessarily mean a Dem sweep.

[kesg]

I just don't see the Democrats running the table or even coming close in Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, and Montana. They might one one of them, but that's it. And don't bet the ranch that they will win even one of them.

I think that PA and RI will flip, but I don't care about RI (Chafee is a Democrat in fact and he will flip if he is the deciding vote in a 50/50 Senate). Too bad for Santarum -- that's what happens when you try to win as a GOPer in a state infested with Steelers and Eagles fans. Republicans may counter all this with surprises in Maryland, New Jersey, and even Michigan. The chances of them winning at least one of these races are about as good as the Democrats winning one of MO, VA, or TN.

[1035rep]

bttt

[JLS]

I was surprised to hear the GOP was buying in Michigan. They must have polls that indicate it is closer than the public polls.

[edmond246]

Alright, so look at the 'internals' of the poll, and I am a statistics person through and through and these are the best internals I have seen in a while for Repubs... 31% of people say Iraq is the number one issue they are voting on, which is alot...but look at this buried in the poll: 12. Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Iraq? - 42% Dem - 42% Repub The last poll from 10-22 has these numbers for the same question: -48% Dem -40% Repub That's a huge shift. Basically an 8pt shift. 6 away from Dem and 2 up for Repubs...I wonder what the Saddam verdict will say. Tuesday night will be interesting for sure. :)

[edmond246]

I apologize for the format of that above!!!

[1035rep]

Very interesting :)

[dc-zoo]

The WaPo title is good. It motivates the hell out of our base.

[TNCMAXQ]

This news is remarkable, even if polls are all skewed. The margin for the Dems has been much larger for the last couple of months and now all of a sudden they are up only by 6? That certainly is an indication their gains will not be as large as they expect. In almost every congressional election the generic ballot shows the Dems ahead, but the Repubs of course have taken a majority in the last 6 election cycles. So I think the GOP just might hold on this Tuesday.

[Huck]

I def don't care about nationwide politics when it comes to my congresscritter.

[wai-ming]

Could someone please explain what is meant by a "generic ballot" and why we should we care?

[ClaireSolt]

Thanks. That is interesting, especially this. "20. Which best describes your family's financial situation? Do you feel as if you (are getting ahead financially), have just enough money to maintain your standard of living, or (are falling behind financially)? Getting Just enough Falling No
ahead to maintain behind opin.
11/4/06 RV 28 48 23 1
10/22/06 RV 25 53 21 1
All 24 52 23 1