Republicans close in on generic ballot. (WashPost/ABC: Dems-51 Repubs-45 among LV).

Washington Post | 11/5/06

[Ravi]

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 1-4, 2006, among a random national sample of 1,205 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

[bpjam]

The polls will suddenly and magically narrow to even just in time for the actual elections. Meanwhile, fifteen consecutive generic ballot polls showing us getting killed have been put out there to help depress GOP voters.

[NaughtiusMaximus]

Very interesting. We'll get 'em.

[kesg]

I think I say you post this chart the other day. It is a damning indictment of generic Congressional polls. Someone else on that same thread posted the following information that may be worth repeating here:

1994 -- DEM +3 Trend Up -- Result R +54 House +9 Senate

1996 -- DEM +6 Trend Down -- Result R -3 House +3 Senate

1998 -- DEM +7 Trend up -- Result R -3 House 0 Senate

2000 -- DEM +5 Trend Up -- Result R -2 House -5 Senate

2002 -- DEM +2 Trend Flat -- Result R +8 House +1 Senate

2004 -- DEM -1 Trend Down -- Result R +3 House +4 Senate

[Question Liberal Authority]

Reported on page C-11, I presume?

No. Reported as "Democtrats, On The Offensive, Could Take Both Houses".

I swear to that I'm not making this up.

There seems to be a new trend in journalism - report the bad news for Dems on the FRONT PAGE and just give it a phony headline. Example: The New York Times' blockbuster that Saddam was actively developing nuclear weapons.

I guess since nobody actually READS newspapers anymore, they figure this is safe.

If the Republicans actually GAIN seats on Tuesday, the headline on Wednesday's Chicago Tribune will read: CHICAGO CUBS WIN WORLD SERIES.

[FastCoyote]

Hey, that video is GREAT! How do you download something like that. And what band is that??

[do the dhue]

It is The Right Brother (TRB)

Not sure how to download it.

If someone knows, please let me know.

Thanks!

[bpjam]

Tell me how to read this post or give me a link to where it came from. I'd really, really like to be able to understand what I'm looking at because it may help explain the truth about these generic ballot polls as they relate to actual votes.

Are all those little dots results of different polls and the blue line is the average Dem generic vote number compared to the GOP(red) line which is the basis? And who produced these graphs?

[ALOHA RONNIE]

.

JOHN KERRY =


Pictures of a vietnamese Re-Education Camp

http://www.Freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1308949/posts

.

[JLS]

Here is a thread on the article:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1732520/posts

The headline on the article is quite amazing and as you would predict. If this poll is right, we are going to have a very nice Tuesday evenning and Wednesday.

[JLS]

Thanks for putting it in perspective. I posted on the other thread that I had heard pundits say the rule of thumb is the Dims need to be about +7 to gain seats. I sure hope this poll is right.

[ClaireSolt]

Now show me the president's approval rating. I'll bet it is over 50%. Go Bush!

[MaineVoter2002]

We should not let the dems win one seat. Yes they say it's doom and gloom for republicans and now that Rush has asked "what if the democrats don't win control of the house MSNBC has finally said that a democrat gain in either house (even if it's not enough for them to control either house) is a mandate for embryonic stem cell research, gay marriage and for the US to get out of Iraq ASAP

[JLS]

Bush's approval is 43% among registered voters. Here are the raw results if you would like to avoid the DC Post spin:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_110406.htm

[operation clinton cleanup]

Have the Republicans EVER lead in a generic ballot poll?

[syriacus]

Very interesting graphs. Thanks.

[finnman69]

see link, its graphs of generic polls charting Democrats MINUS Republicans

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1731801/posts

[kesg]

My pleasure. And one additional thing. In the last three elections, last weekend movement favored the party in the White House. In 2000, this was the Democrats, while in the last two elections it was the Republicans.

Note this as well. If you look at the numbers I posted, you should subtract 5 points from the generic poll to get a more accurate reflection of the actual result. Actually, because of gerrymandering, the Democrats could lose seats in the House even with a 1-2 point lead in the generic poll.

The Senate races are easier to predict because they are state-wide races. But even here, there seems to be movement back to the GOP candidates. I'm thinking that they may get by losing only 2-3 seats, and they may actually pull off an upset in Maryland, New Jersey, or even Maryland. And one of seats they may lose is Chafee, who is no GOPer (not even a RINO except by label only).

[Intolerant in NJ]

Bringing the numbers home so they don't look so bad on election night......

[kesg]

The polls will suddenly and magically narrow to even just in time for the actual elections. Meanwhile, fifteen consecutive generic ballot polls showing us getting killed have been put out there to help depress GOP voters.

This routinely happens in every election cycle. Did you pay attention in 2002 or 2004? The same thing happened in those years as well.

[kesg]

Try this:

http://www.pollster.com/charles_franklin/house_06_generic_ballot.php