Posted on 11/04/2006 12:28:02 PM PST by calcowgirl
SACRAMENTO — If the polls are correct, Gov. Schwarzenegger is on his way to a big win Tuesday. But is he popular enough to pull other Republicans across the finish line?
In what is being billed nationally as the year of the Democrat, California might buck the trend.
At least that's the hope of Republican strategists, who for weeks have talked about a so-called coattail effect: the theory that a big win for the popular Republican governor could mean good things for the GOP in other statewide races.
Republican analyst Dan Schnur has even compiled a "coattail index." It says that a 15-point win for Schwarzenegger — he leads Phil Angelides in the latest Field Poll by 16 points — would translate to Republican wins in the race for insurance commissioner, secretary of state, controller and lieutenant governor.
The coattail theory is based on the idea that the top of the ticket sets the tone for other statewide races.
Mark Baldassare, a public opinion expert at the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan research organization, said that idea might be wishful thinking on the part of Republicans.
"I just can't find any compelling evidence that the governor's margin of victory can cause Republicans to get elected," he said. "They're going to have to do it on their own."
Schwarzenegger has made his political comeback by reaching out to Democrats and independents, not by rallying Republicans, he said.
Schwarzenegger's bipartisan appeal is evident in the Field Poll, which shows 21% of Democrats and 39% of independents prefer Schwarzenegger over state Treasurer Angelides.
"We don't see any evidence that he's a major force in terms of getting out the Republican vote," Baldassare said of the governor.
(Excerpt) Read more at fresnobee.com ...
Story may -- or may not -- make sense.
What kind of a headline is that? Big lead "may or may not" help. Way to cover all the bases without actually commiting to anything.
If a democrat or left leaning independent is disappointed in Angelides and inspired by Schwarzenegger's adoption of a liberal agenda, why would they vote for another Republican? If Arnold was out campaigning for them, one might be able to believe (e.g. "If Arnold thinks they are the right man for the job, then maybe I'll vote for them too.") But that hasn't happened. In fact, Schwarzenegger has kept his distance from each and every candidate, not appearing in public with them, or in campaign materials. On the flipside, there are advertisements showing Schwarzenegger and Dianne Feinstein touting the big-bang-bonds under a "bipartisan" label.
Garamendi and Jerry Brown have been continuously painting McClintock and Poochigian as "extremists" because they are 'to the right' of Arnold. They both point out that Arnold believes in all the things they do, so the Republicans must be out of the mainstream. The following is from Garamendi's website, capitalizing on Arnold's latest public prounouncements that McClintock as "Wrong":
Just a few of the many examples of McClintock opposing Schwarzenegger this year:Coattails? It looks like anyone who likes Schwarzenegger's agenda would be voting for Garamendi!
- Schwarzenegger signed AB 32 (Nunez), landmark legislation to reduce global warming. McClintock voted against it, stating on the floor of the Senate that global warming will continue “until the next Ice Age.”
- Schwarzenegger signed AB 1381 (Nunez) to reform the Los Angeles Unified School District, which McClintock opposed in the Senate.
- Schwarzenegger signed AB 1835 (Lieber), making California’s minimum wage the nation’s highest. McClintock voted against it.
- Schwarzenegger signed SB 1 (Murray), the landmark Million Solar Roofs legislation. McClintock was one of only four Senators to vote against it.
- Schwarzenegger supports all four of the historic bipartisan bond proposals (Proposition 1B-1E) to rebuild California’s infrastructure, including schools, roads, highways, levees and emergency shelters. McClintock voted against and opposes all but one (1E).
- Schwarzenegger has supported increased funding for outreach and enrollment for children’s health care. McClintock has opposed the successful Healthy Families program for children (created by Governor Wilson) since its inception and has repeatedly voted against its expansion.
- Schwarzenegger has supported prescription drug discounts for low-income Californians and seniors. McClintock has repeatedly opposed prescription drug discount programs.
- Schwarzenegger supported Proposition 71, the groundbreaking Stem Cell Research Initiative. McClintock signed the Official Voter Information Guide argument opposing it.
- Schwarzenegger, like the California Chamber of Commerce and Senate Republican Leader Dick Ackerman, opposes Proposition 90, the “Taxpayer Trap” initiative masquerading as eminent domain reform. McClintock is its most ardent supporter.
Many in the Republican Party have been pushing the theory that the bigger Arnold wins, the better chance the downticket candidates have. The author is discussing that theory. Here are some earlier threads:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1722675/posts
Computing The Schwarzenegger Coattail Index: A Guide to the Downticket Races
Flashreport ^ | Oct. 19, 2006 | Dan Schnur
Posted on 10/19/2006 7:58:31 PM PDT by FairOpinion
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1722649/posts
Does Arnold have coattails?
Capitol Weekly ^ | October 19th, 2006 | Anthony York and John Howard
Posted on 10/19/2006 6:52:23 PM PDT by Amerigomag
"Let's put it this way," Khachigian said, "it beats the alternative."
It is difficult to determine exactly what that quote is referring to but I would contend that it doesn't necessarily "beat the alternative." Arnold is out campaigning for $43 Billion in bonds (Prop 1B, 1C, 1D, 1E, 84). Several of these measures are OPPOSED by the Republican party. Instead, he has aligned himself with Nunez, Perata and Feinstein.
On the other hand, he rejected the one big initiative that could motivate Republicans and conservatives and help the downticket candidates (Prop 90 - End Eminent Domain Abuse).
If anyone is motivated by Arnold to go to the polls, they are being asked to vote FOR big-government pork spending and AGAINST property rights!
How exactly does that "beat the alternative"?
And how does Arnold's prounouncement yesterday that "McClintock is Wrong" help anybody other than Arnold, while hurting Tom?
Not for Ken Khachigian, a strategist for Poochigian's campaign.
Schwarzenegger personally, campaigned against the Republican, Lt.Governor candidate yesterday and continues to daily press for liberal policies. Few Republicans are going to the polls to vote for the Austrian. Most are going to vote against the Democrat and Schwarzenegger's bonding policies.
Most are going to vote against the Democrat and Schwarzenegger's bonding policies.... AND McClintock, Strickland and Prop 90!
I just got a recorded phone message supporting Prop 90. It did note that the California Republican Party is FOR Proposition 90 (even though Arnold is against it).
Most are going to vote against the Democrat and Schwarzenegger's bonding policies.... AND FOR McClintock, Strickland and Prop 90!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus
Khachigian's reply was in response to events that became public Friday. The response went like this:
Ken Khachigian, a strategist for Poochigian's campaign, said he was satisfied with the governor's involvement, even though there are no firm plans for him to appear with Poochigian during the home stretch. "Let's put it this way," Khachigian said, "it beats the alternative."
In this case the alternative being that the Austrian might campaign against Poochigian as he did against McClintock in an interview Thursday with the Oakland Tribune's political correspondent.
Amerigomag, there is absolutely not ONE IOTA of indication in this article that Khachigian is referring to anything but an Angelides alternative.
I invite readers to actually peruse the posted article.
You have combined quotes out of context.
Arnie doesn't have coattails, his high vote will be from socialists, enviros, and star struck idiots.
The farther the rest of the Republican candidates can stay away from that puke the better they will do.
Is there some message you are trying to communicate with those pictures?
If so, words would be much more effective.
Err ... Since when?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus
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