Tight Race For Senate And Governor In Maryland

WUSA Channel 9 ^ | Nov 03, 2006

[Clintonfatigued]

There are now just four days until Election Day and a brand new poll shows the top races in Maryland are closer than ever.

Our SurveyUSA poll, conducted exclusively for 9NEWS NOW, shows Democrat Martin O'Malley leading Republican Bob Ehrlich in the Race for Governor, but only by one point. That’s within the survey's 3.8 percent margin of sampling error, meaning the contest is a tie.

Men are rallying to Ehrlich. Ehrlich trailed among men by 3 on 9/20, led by 6 on 10/18 and leads by 18 today. O'Malley leads by 18 among women. That’s up from 17 points on 10/18, so the gender gap has grown to 36 points.

In the race for Senate, the new survey shows Republican Michael Steele and Democrat Ben Cardin are tied with 47% of the vote. Unlike other pollsters, SurveyUSA has consistently showed the race tied. One explanation: SurveyUSA's turnout model is 26% black. Of black likely voters, 33% vote for the Republican Steele, who is black. If less than one-third of blacks vote Republican, the Democrat Cardin wins. Other polling firms show both a lower black turnout and less support among blacks for Steele.

[Clintonfatigued]

It's clear that Governor Robert Erlich has pulled even with Martin O'Mally, as it shows in other polls.

In the Ben Cardin/Michael Steele Senate race, Steele clearly is gaining ground. But this is the only poll that shows the race a tie.

[Man50D]

Men are rallying to Ehrlich

I'm surprised the RATS haven't used that against Ehrlich by trying to turn into something perverted. LOL!

[sitetest]

Dear Clintonfatigued,

It's also the only poll taken after the Curry endorsement.


sitetest

[Kuksool]

The MD Senate race may enter recount territory. Should that happen, watch the soap opera begin. The "objective" media shall parrot Cardin's claim that Steele, with the help of Rove, developed a plan to disenfranchise black voters.

[Clintonfatigued]

That's a good point. I hadn't thought of that.

Now, if only Bill Cosby were to endorse Steele...

[VastRWCon]

I live in MD and dont beleive any of the polls, Erhlich AND Steel will both win. Bank on it.

[Clintonfatigued]

"Erhlich AND Steel will both win. Bank on it."

I find great comfort in that statement. For Democrats, losing these races would be like having teeth pulled.

[Nomorjer Kinov]

If Steele gets 1/3 of black votes, won't they still be there to vote at the top of the ticket? If that happens, doesn't Ehrlich lose?

[Clintonfatigued]

That's something I've wondered about.

[Norman Bates]

Excellent signs for the coming election. I think Steele and Ehrlich will both win.

[oceanview]

momentum is a key factor for the "underdog" in the closing days - and Steele seems to have some.

contrast that with Kean, who doesn't seem to have it.

[MinorityRepublican]

HEAR HEAR!!!!

[CountryBumpkin]

Especially since the "polls" are concentrated in heavily Democratic areas near Baltimore and DC. Ehrlich and Steele should have smooth sailing ahead.

[DCPatriot]

IOW, the GOP are going to win and they can no longer deny it without looking totally inept.

[tflabo]

Go Steele go......

[LS]

I'm that far away (fingers inches apart) from calling this race "safe" for Steele. If it was ANY kind of red state, I would have moved it already.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"If Steele gets 1/3 of black votes, won't they still be there to vote at the top of the ticket? If that happens, doesn't Ehrlich lose?"

---

Not if Ehrlich gets a higher percentage of the white vote than does Steele. That will probably be the case: for example, I presume that Jewish voters in Baltco will probably stick with Cardin but vote for Ehrlich over O'Malley.

I don't buy SUSA's theory that it has the race tied (as opposed to having Steele down) because it assumes that blacks will comprise 26% of the electorate (which would be a huge black turnout, especially for a midterm election). Even in SUSA's poll Steele only gets 33% of blacks, so having a blacks comprise 26% of voters would help Cardin (in fact, it would probably elect Cardin and O'Malley both). I think the electorate that turns out to vote will be far lower than 26% black (probably no higher than 20% black), and if SUSA is anywhere near correct regarding the percentage of the white vote and black vote that support Ehrlich and Steele, respectively, then both Ehrlich and Steele will win by several points. Of course, it remains to be seen whether SUSA is correct on the percentage of white voters and black voters backing Ehrlich and Steele.

[Cicero]

Let's hope. Erlich has done a good job as governor, from everything I've heard, and he has the advantage of incumbancy. O'Malley is an absolute scum, witness the MD4BUSH business here in FR.

I do worry about the ballot-box stuffing. I hope the Republicans have a LOT of poll watchers. I wonder if the fact of black support for Steele in Baltimore will make it harder for them to openly cheat? Or will all the blacks in the polling places securely belong to the machine?

[Petronski]