"If Steele gets 1/3 of black votes, won't they still be there to vote at the top of the ticket? If that happens, doesn't Ehrlich lose?"
Not if Ehrlich gets a higher percentage of the white vote than does Steele. That will probably be the case: for example, I presume that Jewish voters in Baltco will probably stick with Cardin but vote for Ehrlich over O'Malley.
I don't buy SUSA's theory that it has the race tied (as opposed to having Steele down) because it assumes that blacks will comprise 26% of the electorate (which would be a huge black turnout, especially for a midterm election). Even in SUSA's poll Steele only gets 33% of blacks, so having a blacks comprise 26% of voters would help Cardin (in fact, it would probably elect Cardin and O'Malley both). I think the electorate that turns out to vote will be far lower than 26% black (probably no higher than 20% black), and if SUSA is anywhere near correct regarding the percentage of the white vote and black vote that support Ehrlich and Steele, respectively, then both Ehrlich and Steele will win by several points. Of course, it remains to be seen whether SUSA is correct on the percentage of white voters and black voters backing Ehrlich and Steele.
Let's hope. Erlich has done a good job as governor, from everything I've heard, and he has the advantage of incumbancy. O'Malley is an absolute scum, witness the MD4BUSH business here in FR.
I do worry about the ballot-box stuffing. I hope the Republicans have a LOT of poll watchers. I wonder if the fact of black support for Steele in Baltimore will make it harder for them to openly cheat? Or will all the blacks in the polling places securely belong to the machine?