Posted on 11/03/2006 4:32:42 AM PST by Jim Noble
New Hampshire Democrats charge toward Election Day with their congressional candidates now leading or well within striking distance of the state's two incumbent Republican U.S. House members, according to a new poll.
A WMUR/University of New Hampshire tracking poll last night showed 2nd District Democratic challenger Paul Hodes eight percentage points ahead of Rep. Charlie Bass and 1st District Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in a statistical tie with Rep. Jeb Bradley.
UNH polled 330 likely 2nd District voters and 352 likely 1st District voters Oct. 29 to Nov. 1, and found:
* Hodes leading Bass, 45 to 37 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Ken Blevins, 2 percent for some other candidate but 14 percent still undecided.
* Bradley leading Shea-Porter, 47 to 42 percent, with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 10 percent undecided.
The poll has a relatively large margin of error, 5 percent, and shows both races are far from over, but Bass in deeper trouble than Bradley. It shows that undecided voters, who are primarily independents, will decide each race as they make their choices in the final days.
UNH Survey Center director Andrew Smith said the poll shows "Democrats are far more interested in the election than Republicans and are more likely to vote."
The poll found the Iraq war issue and "attitudes toward" President George W. Bush are the key issues in both districts. About two-thirds of those surveyed considered Iraq and Bush "very important" to their vote, and they overwhelmingly chose Hodes and Shea-Porter.
The mood of the electorate has apparently changed drastically in the past month. A WMUR/UNH poll released on Sept. 27 showed both GOP incumbents with comfortable leads. Bass led Hodes, 46 to 36 percent; Bradley led Shea-Porter 52 to 33 percent.
Smith said that since then, anti-Bush and anti-war sentiment in New Hampshire has clearly intensified.
"Republicans are not popular nationwide and are not popular in New Hampshire. We've seen in our polls that as Bush's job approval rating goes up and down, support for Paul Hodes goes up and down."
Energized voters
The 2nd District sampling was 159 self-identified Democratic voters, 107 Republicans and 50 independents. The 1st District sampling was 154 Democrats, 127 Republicans and 57 independents.
Although those numbers are far from the breakdown of party registrations of the districts, Smith said they accurately reflect the party preferences of those who say they will vote next Tuesday. Smith said the poll is based on random phone calls. He said that only those who say they definitely plan to vote, will vote barring a personal emergency, or may vote are included in the poll. Those who say they probably will not vote are excluded.
He said those questions yielded results that show "much more motivation on the Democratic side." Smith said, "Registration doesn't matter" if voters of one party are more energized and willing to turn out than voters of the other party.
He said Bradley is in better shape for the election than Bass because independent voters favor him over Shea-Porter, 46 to 28 percent with 26 percent undecided, while independent voters split between Hodes and Bass, 26 percent each, with 32 percent still undecided.
Hodes campaign manager Reid Cherlin said Hodes and his supporters "feel good about these numbers. "The most important thing is it lets our supporters know we're doing well," he said. "But we don't think it predicts what's going to happen on Election Day. "We're just going to keep our seat belts fastened and keep meeting people," Cherlin said.
Bradley campaign manager Debra Vander Beek said, "We're confident and will keep working hard until the last minute of the polls being open."
Shea-Porter said, "I'm floating. I think I'm going to win. I've been saying all along that I'm going to win. I've had my ear to the ground and I know what people are saying and clearly this message is resonating out there. I'm excited and truly humbled."
Bass campaign spokesman Lindsay Jackson said, "This is a close race. It's a dead heat and will be a race to the finish. Charlie has been in close races before and has always been a great closer because he works hard for every single vote."
Dead heat
The Bass campaign earlier yesterday released its own internal poll, conducted by the American Research Group, showing the race in a dead heat. ARG had Bass leading Hodes 47 to 44 percent with a 4 percent margin of error. Pollster Dick Bennett said sampling of 619 likely voters, contacted on Oct. 30 and 31 and Nov. 1, included 35 percent Republicans, 31 percent Democrats and 34 percent independents. He said his poll contained fewer independents than the state average because "undeclared votes are less apt to say that they are going to vote." Bennett's showed Bass leading among Republicans 92 to 8 percent; Hodes leading among Democrats 83 to 10 percent, with 2 percent for Blevins and 5 percent undecided; and Hodes leading among independents, 46 to 38 percent with 8 percent for Blevins and 8 percent undecided. "It's a close race," said Bennett. "It looks like Bass will do a little bit better among Republicans than Hodes will do among Democrats. But it will depend on how many independents come out and vote. They will decide it. "I've never seen anything like it," Bennett added.
Also yesterday, the Washington-based Republican Main Street Partnership political action committee bought radio air time for a pro-Bass ad featuring likely GOP Presidential hopeful John McCain. Today, Bradley and several other GOP candidates are scheduled to appear with former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani on a bus tour of Manchester, Portsmouth and Rochester. A Nashua stop was cancelled when Bass decided to attend the funeral of Raban Anthony Kimungu, a Hudson Marine killed in a car crash last week. He will be buried as an American citizen, thanks to the lobbying of family, friends and New Hampshire's congressional delegation, according to The Associated Press.' Bass spokesman Jackson said Bass hopes to "catch up to the bus tour" in Manchester.
Hodes will campaign with Gov. John Lynch in Nashua, while Shea-Porter's schedule was not available last night.
The dynamic in NH is markedly libertarian, much more so than elsewhere. Libertarian Republicans are less friendly to the administration than others (wrongly, in my view).
I think that backbone small-town Republicans, however, are deeply sour and pessimistic about Iraq, at least around here. This may depress turnout enough to help Shea-Porter.
If Jeb Bradley loses on Tuesday, I suspect national losses will be in the 50+ range.
Tell them to vote with al qaeda and the dims then! Do your people know that binny and company endorsed the dims this morning?
LLS
It would seem that everytime I see a new poll the number of people polled gets smaller and smaller.
I guess it's tough when you are trying to get the results you want.
Stop drinking the kool-aid! You can find any story you want on either side. It is NOT a 'done deal' for the Dims.
Raed this http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1731346/posts they think that the Rs are in solid! Get out of the blues and GO GET OUT THE VOTE!
To many Americans are looking for an easy way to win the WOT. They would rather just plain ignore it or believe that we can win by doing the minimum, including scaling back our efforts in the Mideast.
well i voted two weeks ago via absentee ballot for Bradley. My wife is dropping hers off today at town hall.
i hope Bradley and Bass both win though
Hold your horses, ladies and gentlemen.
A poll just released today by the American Research Group shows Bass leading 47%-44%. Beware of University polls - no mistake who they want to win.
Tell'em-
"If you don't vote, you are letting OBL vote for you."
You nailed it exactly. WMUR/UNH polling has been biased to the left for years. One year they actually published the questions asked - the questions were so poorly formed that it was embarassing. On more than one occasion when the raw data was available - I wrote the head of the department at UNH that there methodology was an embarassment and insult to the concept of statistical analysis. The UNH has been rushing down the path of leftist radicalism for over a decade.
"Dartmouth's poll is probably showing Bernie Sanders as the GOP front-runner for POTUS in 08 due to all of the 'disgruntled' GOP party members."
If the GOP loses either house of congress they have no one to blame but themselves.
The economic numbers are awesome, but they have not campaigned on them at large.
What an embarrassment!
I wonder if the surge is really true. WHY? Because today in NE Pennsylvania, our local paper, the Daily Liberal Rag, had a story in it about Don Sherwood (10th Congressional district) who is running against Chris Carney, a Pentagon employee. This story rehashes the deal Sherwood made with his former lover (extra-marital affair). It is a leaked story with an anonymous person coming forward with details of the settlement which of course has confidentiality clauses so Sherwood cannot respond to it. There is no author of the story.
If Carney has it in the bag, why do this? I think it is much closer than we know and the Carney campaign had to use more dirty tricks. Mr. Carney said he would NEVER use the affair to win so instead he finds a "former" Repubican who is going to vote for him to do an add and talk about the affair. Part of me wants Carney to win because that will mean one less Democrat working in the Pentagon and able to leak stuff to their accomplices in the MSM.
Our local paper, The Daily Review, Towanda PA aka The Liberal Rag, has really taken a left turn with this election. It will never be in our home again!
No, you will share in a large part of the blame. Nice try at passing the buck.
I wouldn't put too much stock in this poll. :-)
But is it bias or incompetance? I'm beginning to think all things liberal are just the result of a lack of reason.
The 2nd District sampling was 159 self-identified Democratic voters, 107 Republicans and 50 independents. The 1st District sampling was 154 Democrats, 127 Republicans and 57 independents.
Although those numbers are far from the breakdown of party registrations of the districts, Smith said they accurately reflect the party preferences of those who say they will vote next Tuesday;
Yeah right!
Okay. So you build your case by positing that New Hampshire Republicans are unlike Republicans anywhere else in the nation, and then you argue that if the Republican candidate loses in New Hampshire it will mean a 50+ Republican toss-out nationwide?
How does that compute?
That falls under the term "non sequitur" in my lexicon.
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