Cigarette, oil taxes slipping - Abortion notification proposal appears to gain voter support

Sacramento Bee ^ | 11/2/6 | Clea Benson

[SmithL]

After hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign advertising, voters are souring on initiatives that would enact new taxes on oil production and cigarettes, a new Field Poll has found.

Californians surveyed last week and early this week were narrowly against Proposition 87, a tax on oil extraction to fund alternative energy. They were evenly split on Proposition 86, another measure on Tuesday's ballot, which would impose a new levy of $2.60 on each pack of cigarettes to pay for an array of health causes.

Proposition 87 dropped four points in support from a poll taken at the end of September. Proposition 86 dropped eight points.

Support seemed to be growing slightly for Proposition 85, which would enact new limits on teen abortions. The measure, one point down in the September poll, is enjoying a small three-point lead.

Voters also seemed to be turning against Proposition 90, a little-understood initiative that would limit government's ability to take private property.

In all of those contests, many voters said they were still undecided.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Poll director Mark DiCamillo cautioned that with the numbers so close, events in the final days could change the outcome.

"You really have to view these polls as snapshots of a moving picture," DiCamillo said. "The campaigns are still taking place right now. The events of the past week could upset that trend. A lot can happen in a week."

The poll found 44 percent of voters were against Proposition 87 and 40 percent were in favor, with 16 percent undecided.

Voters were divided on Proposition 86, with 45 percent opposed and 45 percent in favor. Ten percent were undecided.

Meanwhile, Proposition 85, a measure that would require parents to be notified when minors seek abortions,

[SmithL]

[calcowgirl]

Field Poll (PDF), November 2, 2006
Proposition	Yes	No	Undecided
Prop 85 - Parental Notification	46	43	11
Prop 86 - Cigarette Tax	45	45	10
Prop 87 - Oil Production Tax	40	44	16
Prop 90 - Eminent Domain	35	42	23
Hoover Institution Poll, October 31, 2006
Proposition	Yes	No	Undecided
Prop 85 - Parental Notification	42	51	7
Prop 86 - Cigarette Tax	49	47	4
Prop 87 - Oil Production Tax	49	44	7
Prop 88 - Parcel Tax	31	60	9
Prop 89 - Public Financing	35	52	13
Prop 90 - Eminent Domain	58	28	14
Datamar Poll (PDF), November 1, 2006
Proposition	Yes	No	Don't Know
Prop 1A - Transportation Funding	56.8	27.2	16.0
Prop 1B - Bonds - Transportation	56.9	33.5	9.5
Prop 1C - Bonds - Housing	42.4	48.2	9.5
Prop 1D - Bonds - Schools	47.2	44.1	8.7
Prop 1E - Bonds - Flood Control	61.4	29.4	9.1
Prop 83 - Jessica's Law	69.0	24.0	7.0
Prop 84 - Bonds - Environment	50.4	40.0	9.5
Prop 85 - Parental Notification	46.8	46.8	6.4
Prop 86 - Cigarette Tax	44.8	49.8	5.4
Prop 87 - Oil Production Tax	45.2	48.0	6.8
Prop 88 - Parcel Tax	28.6	62.5	8.9
Prop 89 - Public Financing	27.5	60.1	12.4
Prop 90 - Eminent Domain	46.2	41.2	12.5

 

[ZGuy]

Compare the numbers for Prop 90. Three polls all over the place. It's up by 30, no, it's down by 7. Hilarious.

[calcowgirl]

It's winning--a slam dunk!
It's losing in a landslide!
It's a nail biter--dead heat!

Take your pick! LOL.

[ozoneliar]

Lets hope this is a case the media trying fake polls to get real results. I don't live in CA, but go Prop 90!

[SheLion]

[CounterCounterCulture]

Can I pick-n-choose my favorites from each poll, please? Thanks. :-\

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Is there a freeper page with all the propositions, candidates, etc. for California, with lots of freeper opinions?

[Redcloak]

Something's fishy with Field and Datmar.

If I'm reading it correctly, the Field poll is assuming an 80% voter turnout in an off-year election. (795 LV out of 1092 RV) The Datmar data was taken over a weekend; not a good time to reach Republicans who are out doing stuff with the kids. Datmar also reports an odd distribution of party affiliations. IIRC, the State is roughly split into thirds between Republicans, Democrats, and independents. (Democrats being more numerous than Republicans.) They report a near 50:50 split between Republicans and Democrats. However, what I'm calling fishy in the Datmar data may simply be the result of their algorithm for weeding out non-likely voters from the sample. If that's the case, then it shows how little influence the mushy middle has in elections.

[goldstategop]

All the polls are garbage. Their methodology hasn't changed since the early 1940s. Combined with their penchant to oversample Democrats and ask slanted questions, they don't come close to an accurate forecast of the final results. None of the pollsters picked up Republican gains in the 2002 off year election and they missed Bush's re-election again in 2004.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

[38special]

Are Californians that stupid to vote themselves higher gasoline prices?

[calcowgirl]

That would be some page to include all of those opinions.

Here's a summary I put together of some opinions on the props (post #19)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1720995/posts?page=19#19

[calcowgirl]

Can I pick-n-choose my favorites from each poll, please? Thanks. :-\

Absolutely! The result would probably be as good as the original poll!

[calcowgirl]

...then it shows how little influence the mushy middle has in elections.

And how ignorant voters are--especially those who think Bonds are FREE!