SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- November 2006 Update

self | November 1, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE 11/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT

SIX DAYS AWAY FROM NOV 7, here's my updated opinions on the races. Things have moved towards the GOP in my opinion.

[Note: We have 48 GOP seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]

The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)

VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (70%) Michael J Fox backfired
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%) "Playboy" Ford is making stupid moves
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)

MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (55%) improving, Bush to visit next week
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (55%) improving, great ads
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%) steady, RINO v. crook- go with the RINO
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (50%) improving, Rick deserves win
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^

MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (50%) Bouchard surging!
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (40%) lib v. lib- who cares?
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (40%) I hope DeWine pulls it out, but it looks unlikely from here
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (25%) hard to get traction
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (25%) improving but way behind
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^

SAFE GOP SEATS

AZ- (R= current seatholder)- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum GOP

SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS

CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman(I) or Lamont(D) safe
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- Akaka safe
MA- D- Kennedy safe
NE- D- Nelson safe (sorry FL Freepers- prove me wrong!)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Soc safe
DEMS: 13 safe + 27 carryovers = 40 minimum DEM

[Fledermaus]

I agree about McCain but I'm afraid the GOP is going to take a bath. They'll lose the House and drop 4-5 in the Senate.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Do you have an "inside track"?

[Right_in_Virginia]

Right now, I am at dems 50 (including the I's), reps 49-

Are you basing this on the published "polls"?

[firewalk]

Thank you for the pings
I've enjoyed your prediction threads

Republicans in NJ got two more votes today by absentee ballot
I'm very pleased to say that one of the voters was just registered this year.

Just want to add that I was told by someone there that they were very busy with voters.
(pretty sure they meant absentees)

This is a heavily Republican area...
hoping that's a good sign

[RobFromGa]

Do you have an "inside track"?

Nope.

[Chances Are]

Are you impressed with the way he has the Dems running the table in the House elections?

CA....

[mcvey]

This is my business. My specialty is American politics--present and historical. So I have access to the internals of many of the polling firms--I don't pay for them, but my school has built a small reputation on its work in American politics and they pick up the tab.

You will be interested to know that this week I will be presenting a paper at a large conference of academics on left-wing bias in this area. The MSM would print it if I was talking about right-wing bias. This you will never see.

But, on the main question, the only thing that could bail the pubbies out right now is a very very very good ground war. I have my fingers crossed, but it is a long (but not impossible) shot.

McVey

[Seattle Conservative]

"But, on the main question, the only thing that could bail the pubbies out right now is a very very very good ground war. I have my fingers crossed, but it is a long (but not impossible) shot."

This is not very encouraging. That said, I know the Pubbies have a great GOTV.

You've seen the internals of the polling firms.
Question: Have you also seen what many suspect and/or what the polls themself show - that they are oversampling Dims? Without betraying any confidentiality that I suspect you need to keep, is there anything else that you can share w us?

TIA

[Salvation]

I'm going full bore tonight.

I think the Republicans gain one in the Senate:

Tennessee, Corker
Montana, Burns
Maryland, Steele
Arizona, Kyl
Missouri, Talent
Rhode Island, Chafee
Santorum, 50.9 percent, Casey 50.1 percent
New Jersey, Kean
Virginia, Allen

[RobFromGa]

My FINAL predictions:

I think we win in VA, MO, TN, MT, MD, NJ, OH, and RI. (+2: MD, NJ)
I think we lose in MI, PA, MN, and WA. (-1: PA)

Net +1 in the Senate. These are my final predictions, I changed OH to Win, PA to lose, MI to lose, RI to win, still 56-42-2.

New Jersey and Ohio I am not confident about, but I think we will win close ones.

[mwl1]

I think we are more likely to win in Michigan than in New Jersey.

I think Steele will win in Maryland.

[WalterSkinner]

..Rob don't count Santorum out yet--I heard today that the GOTV is smoking in PA...

[onyx]

UPBEAT! Great!

Serious prayers for Rick in PA.
We truly need him in the US Senate.

[RobFromGa]

I hope that Santorum wins-- he is a great conservative and deserves to win. I hope to be wrong on this prediction, and I also hope I am wrong on Michigan, Washington, and Minnesota!

See you all at the crack of dawn. I'm off to make some more GOTV calls.

[mwl1]

I'm counting on your expertise and nerves of steel, Rob! or should we say nerves of Steele

[firewalk]

I hope we win in NJ
All I really care about, is holding onto the House & Senate.

Thank you very much for the prediction threads & pings

[motife]

If there was only someway Lincoln Chaffee, Tom Kean Jr., and Mike Dewine could make it into the Senate all our troubles would be over.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Any final predictions on the House?

[RobFromGa]

We keep the House with a loss of 7 to 9 seats net. I think we pickup 3-4 Dem seats and lose about 10-14 GOP seats