Posted on 11/01/2006 4:12:26 AM PST by Sybeck1
NASHVILLE -- Political scientists and pollsters will be watching the outcome of Tennessee's U.S. Senate race for more reasons than its historic aspects and its role in deciding which party controls Congress.
They'll also be studying whether white voters still tell pollsters they'll vote for a black candidate -- and then don't.
Whether that comes into play, or to what degree, could help determine whether Democrat Harold Ford Jr. becomes the first black person elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction.
Most polling since September has shown the race neck-and-neck within the surveys' margin of error. A CNN poll released Tuesday indicated Republican Bob Corker ahead by 8 percentage points, but the Ford camp vigorously disputed its methods and results and said Ford's latest internal poll showed Ford up by 5 points.
In four major races over the last 17 years, black Democrats won fewer votes on election day than pre-election polling, and even some election-day exit polls, had projected.
It's called the "Bradley Effect," after then-Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley's lead in the polls for governor of California disappeared on Election Day with his loss, by just over 1 percentage point, to Republican George Deukmajian in 1982.
In Virginia in 1989, exit polls showed black Democrat Douglas Wilder winning the governorship by 10 points; he won that night by less than 1 point.
And in North Carolina in 1990 and 1996, Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt, a black Democrat, led in the polls in both his campaigns to unseat Republican Sen. Jesse Helms -- but lost by 6 points the first time and 7 points in their re-match.
"It is not at all unusual for poll respondents to respond differently than what they actually feel," University of Tennessee political science professor Michael Gant said Tuesday. He also directs UT's Social Science Research Institute, which conducts polling across the state.
"Usually we'll see that in response to attitude and opinion questions. It's been going on for a long time, before the term 'politically correct' was in vogue. You'd have a tendency for people to give a more inclusive, accepting opinion on race and ethnicity than what their behavior would actually indicate."
Some researchers believe the Bradley, Wilder and Gantt results are too old to still be valid. And they point to major differences between them and the Corker-Ford race.
Vanderbilt University political scientist John G. Geer said the polling problems in the Wilder and Gantt races "came down to self-identified Democrats claiming to support the African-American Democrat, but didn't. My guess is that over the last 18 years, those Democrats have left the party, because they have either died or switched parties. Today in Tennessee, you can easily say you are for Corker without worrying" that it might be perceived as racial.
"Secondly, this election is occurring in a very different context. The war is going on, and there is a push for change. I don't believe there's going to be a big drop-off" between what the polls say Ford will get and his results on Election Day, Geer said Tuesday.
There are other big differences. Gantt was seen as more liberal and declined to moderate his positions against the conservative Helms, while Ford has tried to paint himself as a moderate.
Helms was an incumbent who outspent Gantt by $10 million in 1990 and by $7 million in the 1996 reprise.
Ford and Corker are running for an open seat, and overall spending by and on behalf of their campaigns will be roughly equal.
"The other thing I would point out," said Geer, "is that when Gantt was attacked by Helms, the 'race card' was over a policy issue: Gantt's support for affirmative action. The race card played in this one was more personal, and a personal attack has more risks of backfiring than a policy attack."
The most recent example of a major black Democrat losing in a statewide race was Texas's 2002 Senate race. Dallas' black Democratic mayor Ron Kirk lost to Republican state Atty. Gen. John Cornyn for the open seat, but polling never showed Kirk ahead. Cornyn won by 12 points.
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Clinton in Memphis
Former president Bill Clinton will be at a rally for Democrat Harold Ford Jr. today at 11 a.m. at Temple of Deliverance Church of God in Christ, 369 G.E. Patterson.
CNN poll says Corker is ahead
Bob Corker led Harold Ford Jr. by 8 percentage points in a new CNN poll released Tuesday.
Details
The Republican former mayor of Chattanooga led the Democratic Memphis congressman 52 to 44 percent among 541 likely voters polled last weekend.
The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Earlier polls have been so close that the margin of error has made the race too close to call.
The Ford campaign said the CNN poll was "inaccurate and based on deeply flawed assumptions" -- one of them being that far more Tennesseans are registered to vote than actually are.
Copyright 2006, commercialappeal.com - Memphis, TN. All Rights Reserved.
Turn out the lights, the party's over.
But if you're working in Tennessee for Corker, you have to go about with the mindset that you're ten points behind and have a week to make it up.
Steele got some very muscular black democratic support day before yesterday, but the Washington Post buried it on B5.
I don't like the implied charge of racism in this statement. A lot of white people will be voting for blacks in Pennsylvania, (Lynn Swann), and Maryland, (Michael Steele), but Republicans don't get credit for not being racist.
Or it may just be that conservatives love messing up the libs polls.....
Since the Communist News Network is in the tank for the RATS how can their poll be flawed?
I have always held that white voters in Tennessee will not vote for Harold Ford, Jr. Same goes for any voter that is opposed to having a senator bought and paid for by the Kennedy/Kerry wing of the Moonbat party who incidentally pumped $900,000 into Junior's campaign, yesterday.
Bubba's arrogant visit will further harden the will of Republican and conservative voters to get to the polls.
Hey, come on, Steele getting support from PG County Democrats is no big deal...it belongs in the back of the Metro section.
It's not a major news story like global warming story or some old bag saying that George Allen ran a stop sign when he was 17 or something like that.
Bubba's track record is pretty dismal when it comes to a candidate that he has endorsed and stumped for. As a matter of fact I'm not sure a single candidate he's stumped for has ever won. With the exception of completely safe seats in blue, blue areas. Even then it's only helped if the candidate was an incumbent. I think his buddy Deval Patrick will win as Govenor in Mass but that's about it.
whitey fraud jr.'s campaign is falling apart because he is a LIBERAL trying to make believe he is not. His lifetime ACU rating is about 30%. This just won't get it in Tennessee.
Up to its old tricks, The Post relegated mention of John Kerry's remarks to a story about President Bushes remarks about it. Page A8. It didn't even get its own article.
This is a true statement for white Dems in Tennessee!!!!!1
Ford is whiter than Corker. Where is the race issue here?
"Former president Bill Clinton will be at a rally for Democrat Harold Ford Jr. today at 11 a.m. at Temple of Deliverance Church of God in Christ, 369 G.E. Patterson."
If the President campaigned for Corker in a church the Dims and ACLU would be screaming separation of church and state and saying the IRS should take away their non-profit status. Hypocrites!
Harold loves taxes, and his ADA lifetime rating is 84.
Gore's ADA rating was only 65; Bill Frist's is 3.
The media complicity in propping up Harold Ford, by denying that he is a liberal, is unprecedented.
Democrats are playing the "Vote for Harold, Or You're a Seething Racist" card.
Look for them to play it often over the next six days.
If I were in Tennesee, I would vote against Harold Ford Jr. because he is an idiot. I would vote for Corker because he is a good man. Racism would have nothing to do with it.
Besides, Harold Ford, Jr. is whiter than I am, and I'm the whitest guy I know.
I really believe much of his support is an MSM creation. He can't win East Tennessee and he'll struggle outside of Nashville proper.
Interesting.
Well, I do live in Tennessee, and early voting is still open. I'm going to do just that in about 45 minutes. MAN, it's going to feel good to vote against Ford!!!
Whether that comes into play, or to what degree, could help determine whether Democrat Harold Ford Jr. becomes the first black person elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction.)))
Excuse me, but Maryland is below the Mason Dixon line.
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