Posted on 10/31/2006 8:09:22 AM PST by LS
[Here are the key paragraphs. Go to the link for the full article]
Besides Bush's residual popularity in some crucial states and districts, Republican officials say the other reasons they're optimistic are:
1) No Republican is being taken by surprise, unlike many Democrats in 1994. Shortly after Bush's reelection, White House and Republican National Committee officials began working to convince House members that the formidable reelection record for incumbents (since 1996, 97.5 percent) was not something they could take for granted. "What we attempted to do last year," said one of these officials, "was to go out of our way to say to people: 'You face a potential of a race. In order to win as an incumbent, you better have a plan,' " including an intensive focus on voter registration, a message plan that would unfold in phases, and a ground organization that was operating in a measurable, quantifiable way. When candidates were willing to do that, the party offered to work with them to offload some costs. The candidates were also encouraged to help raise money for the party, to complete the circle. One official involved in the process said Republican officials deliberately "scared" lawmakers, telling them: "You face a very tough road. You better be ready."
2) Absentee ballot requests and returns, closely tracked by the party, are meeting or exceeding past levels for Republicans in key states and districts. [LS's comment: I TOLD YOU SO] Republican officials say White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove and party operatives are scrutinizing this data with the same intensity that they followed metrics like voter registration earlier in the cycle. For at least 68 races, they have been getting reports once a week on the number of voters registered, phone calls completed and doors knocked on. Now, they're getting a second report on the number of absentee ballots requested, absentee ballots returned and early votes cast. "We can look at that data flow and make an assumption about what's going on and plotting it out," a Republican official said.
3) When the national parties, national campaign committees, state "victory" committee accounts and competitive campaigns are added up, Republicans maintained a substantial financial advantage over Democrats at the last filing period. "We didn't look on it as one pot," said one official involved in the process. "We looked upon it as four pots, with synergy available through all four."
4) Republicans say the district-by-district playing field favors them in several structural ways not reflected in national polls. Here is their thinking, starting with statistics from the President's 2004 race against John F. Kerry: "There are 41 districts held by a Democrat that Bush carried, and 14 seats held by Republican that Kerry carried, so we're fighting on better turf. You see it in the open seats, where Bush carried 18 of the Republican open seats and Kerry carried two. So we're fighting on better turf."
5) The get-out-the-vote machine designed by Rove and now-Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman in 2001 was dubbed the "72-hour" program, but officials say that's quite a misnomer and that it's really a 17-week or even two-year program. "In Ohio, we are making more phone calls this year than we made two years ago," said an official involved in the process. "Now, that's not the case necessarily in Virginia, which was not a battleground state. You have to build that. In other places, we built that and built it early."
On the road Monday, Rove playfully answered the receptionist's phone at a hotel where the President was conducting an interview with Fox News Channel's Sean Hannity. "Historic Statesboro Inn," Rove said authoritatively, then went to track down the manager himself, returning several times to update the caller on the progress of his quest. On Air Force One on the way home, "the architect" made a rare appearance in the press cabin, handing out chocolate-covered pecans to the reporters. He waved the lid of the tin theatrically and said, "Sweets for my sweets!" In only a few days, it'll be clear whether he has outsmarted the pundits and Democrats, one last time.
I can gurantee that this letter writing friend is going to be on the losing side of this. You simply don't win elections by Bush bashing.
Bush is a far more popular president the than what the polls show and I have full confidence that he has the support of the vast majority of Americans.
BTTT!!!!!!!!
I have only sporadically seen you prognisticate over the past 5-6 weeks. I have been barraged by MSNBC, ABC,NBC, CBs, and NBC saying that there is no way the republicans can win or even hold majority in the house and probably the senate. They have repeated this mantra ad-nauseum. It has had a mild effect on my enthusiam for Nov. 2. But it has made me very angry. These pricks are telling me the future in order to take the starch out of my pecker. Now, I am pissed. They cannot know the future, especially the motivation of those not carefully following these races. Yet they, like Goebells, keeps repeating what is unknowable. It is clear this orchestrated brain-washing is designed for one final result,....to demoralize republicans and put dems into power.
Well, here is my response. I have conscripted voters for the GOP. I am calling to remind them to vote, and vote early. So far, I have conscripted 2 immediate family members, to the point of making sure they got early registration forms. Then my brother, his wife, his 2 kids, their spouses, my sister and her husband, her two kids and one of their spouses. All will be voting Republican, across the block. I have only begun to fight these bastards in the MSM and the G*****n democrat antiGod, proabortion, proeuthenasia, antimilitary, protaxcuts,etc, etc.
It makes me mad as hell when the MSM tells me what I think. Why would they do that? Because they want me to think that way. So MSM, dems, kiss my rosey, red, bung. I am not going to let you win. Never again. I would like the dems and MSM know they could not turn me, but they encouraged me to conscript at least 11 other people to vote Republican. I have never done that before. I voted, but I did not go out to turn voters. Thanks to the MSM and dems, I have done so. It has been fun. And I am not through. I have 7 more days to do more. By the way, the breakout in the people I mentioned have, in the past, was about 5 republicans and 6 democrat voters. I took the 6 to the republican side, so if my math is correct, the dems go down 12 and the republicans up go to 17. I like that math.
Well the lying conniving demagogy democrats have got me SOOOOO pist off I'd crall over broken glass in a pit of salt to get one extra vote to beat the bastards... I've sent in my vote today
The Mich economy is a mess. Perhaps even Dem union members will be honest enough to want a real change. Mich. is such a tough state to call. One poster asked that the RNC put up better candidates in many battleground states. He is right. Mich has Bouchard and he is a good one. DeVos did not come across well on CSPAN. In other states, it will be ashame to see such a good candidate like Gavrick lose to Cantwell because she is a good looking Dem!!
Dewine could help his situation out a lot more if he would get in front of every camera he can find yelling angry condemnations of John Kerry. Should help a lot with the base...
"I believe the big news of this election will not be a change in congress, though it is possible, but a really unexpectedly low turnout. We had 77 million of so in 2002. I doubt we see 70 million this time, about half the 2004 numbers. In such a world, the most organized operation wins."
Good observation.... I was hearing of low turnout in our local area in early voting. OTOH, I want *high* turnout in our areas, and *low* turnout in the Dem ones.
"I know people who HATED DeWine, and if they'd just shut up, those people wouldn't be voting. Now they are, and they'll vote Blackwell, too."
I hope you know 100,000 likeminded folks.
I wish I could sare your optimism.
I voted all Republican this morning in Cobb County, GA
See, Diana Irey's got the right idea!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1729293/posts
"Republican officials say the other reasons they're optimistic are:"
6) Kerry is a MORON
"From your lips to God's ears. I will be working in NJ to get the vote out for Kean who is really a Dem but will vote for President Bush's judges. Besides Menendez is probably in bed with the rest of the corruption crowd on the left in NJ."
The choice is between a liberal Democrat crooked pol and an honest RINO who will support the right kind of judges and support a decent foreign policy. Seems an easy choice, even for conservatives.
Go KEAN!!!
"This notion that elections are stolen and that elections are rigged is so common in the public sphere that we're having to go out of our way to counter them this year," said Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist. .
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That's total BS, but think about it - by publicizing it, they are trying to motivate their base. Sure, if *you* were reminded of attempts to deny *your* right to vote you'd think "I'll show them! I'm going out to vote!"
So it makes sense that liberal NPR this morning had a news segment about liberal poll watchers trying to 'protect' voters from 'voter intimidation' (ie daring to make them show proof).
The MSM noise machine is trying to 'scare up' some voters, literally!
I agree with you. The Dem primary participation has also been way down. In Virginia, about 150,000 showed up statewide for what was a fairly competitive primary between Webb and Harris Miller. Webb won 53 to 47 percent.
I added my son and brother-in-law to those who will vote Republican for the first time by registering them.
Good for your son. My college freshman son did the same last week. Straight R.
Wait, I thought Iraq was a "loser" for GOP candidates?
Right, LS. I am using exit poll data fromm CNN over time, assuming that Reps and Dems are equally motivated-- benefits Dems-- but allowing for the median historical decrease in midterm turnout in Ohio (~15), then defining likely voters as those that consider the economy as "very important" since that most correlates with actual voters across parties in gubernatorial elections. The 20% that said that the economy wasn't important had unusually high undecideds and young, which are the least likely to vote in a midterm. As I said, the -6.2% is only "backback of the envelope", but it has followed Zogby closely and trended with Rassmussen. So take it for what it's worth.
If you go through the House lists, it's hard to see how the Dems can win 10, and with the right shifts in the last week, it's easy to see how we could not lose a single NET seat.
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