[riverdawg]

"Tradesports ... is based on emotion, not facts like Wall Street."

LOL! And what "facts" did Wall Street use to value the dot.com sector in the late 1990's? Markets reflect participants' expectations of the future, which are formed both by facts and emotions.

The relevant question about tradesports.com is not whether it is a perfect predictor of electoral outcomes but whether it is better or worse than more traditional polling methods. Like untenured, I haven't seen a systematic study of the evidence - only anecdotal evidence where pro- and anti-tradesports people (including myself) have cherry-picked examples to support their argument.

[Welike ike]

Riverdawg, the 2004 Presidential Election is cherry picked?? It was the most focal election possibly in World history and Tradesports completely screwed it up. Dawg, that was not an obscure House or Senate race. Tradesports had the winner, Bush, at 48% on Election morning and 20% by 4pm.

Please do your homework Riverdawg