Posted on 10/30/2006 11:10:15 PM PST by MadIvan
IN PREVIOUS United States election campaigns, candidates sought to win over relatively large groups of voters - MPV-driving "soccer moms" in 1996, or blue-collar "NASCAR dads" in 2004, to use the terms coined by political insiders.
But now, thanks to a state-of-the-art marketing technique called microtargeting, 2006 could turn out to be the year of the snowmobile owner, the Forbes magazine reader, or the shopper who patronises a particular store.
Republicans and Democrats have compiled hundreds of data points, from voting history to church membership to TV viewing habits, to create the most detailed profiles ever of each and every voter in the United States, meaning relatively small groups can be wooed for their vote. Such microtargeting could provide the crucial edge in an election when control of Congress hangs in the balance.
Party officials say it enables them to find supporters among groups they would have previously ignored.
The technique can also identify those who need extra encouragement to turn out in a year when the White House is not at stake - crucial votes that could mean the difference between defeat and victory in dozens of races across the US.
Republicans in Michigan are targeting snowmobile owners in their effort to defeat Jennifer Granholm, the Democratic governor, who vetoed a snowmobile trail last year.
They are also campaigning for the first time since 1962 in Detroit, a Democratic stronghold, where they have identified 44,000 black voters who oppose gay marriage and abortion.
Opinion surveys, gathered door to door or over the telephone, allow candidates to fine-tune their message to groups as small as 200 voters and court them with mailings, phone calls and personal visits.
Saul Anuzis, the chairman of Michigan's Republican party, said: "If you can find out who are fishermen or hunters or snowmobilers, there's value to it. Then you add the fact that some have a college education, some don't; you can find out people who smoke and people who don't. And then politically you have to go through extensive polling to take advantage of these models."
Microtargeting first became important in George Bush's 2004 re-election push, according to the president's then campaign manager, Ken Mehlman.
In that election, Democrats were hobbled by faulty data and inadequate technology, which stopped volunteers in the key state of Ohio from printing out "walk lists" of households they planned to contact the day before the election.
Democrats say they have closed the technology gap since then, with a state-of-the-art database and training for officials who want to use it.
But many in the party are sceptical about the benefits of microtargeting, arguing that supporters can be identified by basic traits, such as where they live and whether they are church regulars.
"People out-coach themselves with these techniques... I enjoy a glass of whisky and I'm the most partisan Democrat alive in America," Jim Farrell, a Montana Democrat said, referring to a habit that supposedly indicates a Republican leaning.
Hal Malchow, a campaign consultant to the Democrats, says that, while businesses can make money by reaching 1 per cent of the population, candidates need to have a much broader appeal.
And Republicans agree that even the most efficient voter-targeting operation in the world can't help a candidate who is trailing badly.
"This process is beneficial in races decided by a few points," Mike DuHaime, the political director of the Republican National Committee, said. "This is not some kind of magic dust you sprinkle on a campaign that's down by 15 points."
BUSH PARACHUTES IN TO DEFEND IRAQ TACTICS
THE US military death toll in Iraq for October climbed to 100 yesterday, a week before the US mid-term elections in which George Bush's Republicans could lose control of Congress over his war policies.
On the campaign trail, the president accused the Democrats of lacking a plan to win the conflict.
"The Democratic goal is to get out of Iraq. The Republican goal is to win in Iraq," the president told a rally at Georgia Southern University.
Mr Bush plans to be on the road every day but one in the lead-up to the 7 November elections, swooping into regions where races are tight and where a presidential visit aimed at drawing Republican loyalists to the voting booths might make a difference.
With polls showing voters far more inclined to vote for Democrats this year, Mr Bush argued it was the right decision to oust Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq despite the bloody insurgency that sprang up after the US invasion.
Accused by Democrats of refusing to budge from a stay-the-course policy, Mr Bush insisted his commanders have the flexibility needed to adjust to the enemy's tactics and that the only way not to succeed is "to leave before the job is done". He said: "If you listen carefully for a Democrat plan for success, they don't have one. Iraq is the central front in the war on terror, yet they don't have a plan for victory."
Dispatching the president was a calculation by the White House that Mr Bush can help deliver votes despite a job approval rating below 40 per cent and deep dissatisfaction with his handling of the war.
The Democrats could gain 20 to 35 seats in the House of Representatives, more than the 15 needed to win a majority. But the party needs to win several tight races to gain the six seats necessary to take control of the Senate.
Regards, Ivan
Ping!
And piss of Andy (Gay Agenda) Sullivan.
i.e. Piss OFF
"2006 could turn out to be the year of the snowmobile owner..."
Finally.
Ivan, here's my brief report on the first day of advance voting in Georgia:
http://www.freedominion.ca/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=830322&highlight=#830322
Hi, backhoe. Thanks for your early voting report. Here in Indiana I will be at the polls at 6AM to cast my vote for a straight R ticket, even though one guy who is running at the state level is personally known to me as not of the best character. However, I will not give the evil party my vote even for that position, because any victory they get they will use to their benefit.
I can actually claim that most of those "R's" I voted for are pretty good people- one of the local Judges is the wife of my old lawyer, and besides being a very competent judge, is very good woman. The local Assemblyman I voted for will actually get on talk radio and field live questions from the audience, and I give him high marks for that. Not all the questioners are friendly, but he is always courteous, and fast on his feet with answers.
Folks, vote as if your life depends on it.
Ultra-Conservative, Unreconstructed Copperhead, Pot-Smoking Cat Owner.
But, alas, the only issue I care about is getting the bad people out of my town: Illegals back to Mexico, and Katrina perps back to Norleans.
Wouldn't that make you a Democrat? (Sorry, but I couldn't resist that one...)
Maybe I'm recunstructed after all, and I just don't know it yet.
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