Write-in Could Win Delay's Spot, Poll Finds.

Houston Chronicle ^ | 10-29-2006 | Doug Miller

[rhinohunter]

On Monday President Bush flies into Houston to campaign for a congressional candidate who — at one point — looked like a long shot.

But an exclusive poll indicates that Shelley Sekula-Gibbs may pull off a political upset and win her write-in campaign for Congress.

[Private_Sector_Does_It_Better]

"You say we have a chance at what?"


At offsetting the Dems lead in these 18 races with a superior get out the vote effort. We ALWAYS organize this effort better on election night and I could possibly offset a Dem lead in the total likely voter population.<

I can list the 18 I think we'll lose if you like. /p>

[Anti-Bubba182]

"This will be a BIG win if we can pull it off!!!"

I sure would be and it would also Chap Ronnie Earle's butt!

[Private_Sector_Does_It_Better]

"How do Texans vote in a write-in candidate? Is it so difficult? How about absentees?"


I think it varies by county. Each county in my state uses different voting equipment.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

No, that's quite alright. I've seen everyone's silly 'blah blah in blah blah district is sure to lose' lists.

Seems you've changed your tune though. A few minutes ago we were going to lose these 18 seats and now they are 18 seats that we are offsetting the leads on.

[Private_Sector_Does_It_Better]

I hope I'm wrong, but these are the 18 that it's looks like we could lose.

1. AZ-08
2. CO-07
3. CT-02
4. CT-04
5. FL-13
6. FL-16
7. IA-01
8. IN-02
9. IN-08
10. IN-09
11. MN-06
12. NC-11
13. NY-24
14. NY-26
15. OH-15
16. PA-06
17. PA-07
18. PA-10

[Sam Spade]

An interesting ping...

Even though it's Zogby (big caveat), I kind of suspected that something's been going on with the NRCC spending nearly $1.6 million in the past month on this seat and having Bush come into the CD on Monday or Tuesday. You don't do that for no reason.

[Private_Sector_Does_It_Better]

"Seems you've changed your tune though. A few minutes ago we were going to lose these 18 seats and now they are 18 seats that we are offsetting the leads on."


I've not changed my tune one bit. Read my first post in this thread. I said: "Dems are going to pick up about 18 seats. There's a chance to hold, but not likely."

I've been consistent throughout that we'll probably lose 18 seats and our only slim chance to avoid this is through a massive get out the vote effort and I've always characterized that as a long shot.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Could be wrong????

I'm too tired and it's too late to go through the list of these...but you've got a bunch of things in there that don't belong. You are WAY off. Perhaps in the morning I"ll go through them, but you are way overweighting polls and underweighting the GOTV in more than a couple states.

[chuckles]

There is usually a "R" and a "D" right at the beginning of the ballot. If you stroke "R", will that vote go to the write in because she is a Repub?

[Private_Sector_Does_It_Better]

I hope I'm wrong.

I'll ping you on election night and I GENUINELY hope I'm eating crow that night.

Either way I look forward to a civil discourse on the results.

It's important for us all to remember that two Freepers who are on the same side can look at the same set of facts and come to the different conclusions. As John Wooden said, "we can disagree without being disagreeable."

[fortheDeclaration]

I believe we will hold this seat.

I have been working at a volunteer and the response has been very positive.

Republicans are quite capable of taking the time to write in a candidate, when that candidate is their Party's representive.

Moreover, there is a 'special election' selection that has her name on it to finish up Tom Delay's seat.

That allows the voter to see her as the GOP candidate.

As for third Party candidates, I do not think they will be a factor.

I will be at the Presidents rally tomorrow.

We are going to hold both Houses of Congress because the GOP is supported at the grassroots level.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Fair enough. I'm sorry for being difficult. I'm just fed up to the gills with doom and gloomers. I've spent dozens of hours pouring over data and handicapping these things and if you have too, then I'm glad to have someone to bounce off. I'm just seeing so many people coming here and spouting off someone else's predictions and declaring loss for us that it makes me want to bang my head on my desk! :)

[BonnieJ]

I wish they hadn't given up on the one here in AZ, it was held by a Republican so many years. What went wrong there? I haven't followed it very closely.

[AntiGuv]

These numbers are dreadful for the GOP. I'm actually quite surprised that a full 38% of likely voters are unaware there's a write-in candidacy. Even if you assume that the ignorant voters are 2 to 1 Democrat, which is quite unlikely (it's probably closer to 60-40 GOP/DEM) that's about 12% off the top of the Republican margin in the district, and that's before any other factors are worked in: (1) the straight-party problem; (2) the cumbersome-ballot problem; (3) the special-election problem; and (4) the one-fifth of write-ins going to someone other than Sekula-Gibbs.

Yes, I realize the headline says the opposite, but most reporters are imbeciles.

[furquhart]

Interestingly enough, more voters know who she is than Nick Lampson.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

You're talking about the Graf race? There are a number of reasons why they pulled out...none of them making any sense at all. Graf is on my lose list, but I still don't count him out. Especially with marriage on the AZ ballot this year.

[Princip. Conservative]

Every time the Dems have counted on Texas for anything, disaster has generally been the result.

I have one thing to say to Nick Lampson and his ilk: DON'T MESS WITH TEXAS!

[AntiGuv]

Interestingly enough, more voters know who she is than Nick Lampson.

It doesn't matter. Anyone who wants to vote Democrat will have no problem knowing what to do. That's the problem. They don't need to know who Nick Lampson is to vote for him. They just need to know what DEM stands for.

[Tex_GOP_Cruz]

How do Texans vote in a write-in candidate? Is it so difficult? How about absentees? Thanks in advance.

Of the four counties partially in CD 22, if I remember correctly, all four use electronic ballots in early voting and three do on Election Day; Galveston County uses optical scan ballots on Election Day (will be a long night for them).

I think that with the electronic machines, if one spelling is accepted, all of the same spellings will be too. The computer will place the various names in batches and the ballot boards (which will also rule on provisional ballots) will decide what to accept. In Galveston Co, they will have to rule on each handwritten name. The standard is intent of the voter, which is open to all kinds of Florida-style shenanigans in the event of a close result.

I'm very pleased to see this poll.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Amazing that you can find bad news for the GOP in this election just about anywhere. Give AntiGuv great news, he'll bark back at you a reason to be depressed. It's just interesting...