CHRONICLE-11 NEWS POLL
Write-in tightens race in District 22
Sekula-Gibbs running close to Lampson for the seat DeLay held
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle
The Republican write-in effort to hold former Rep. Tom DeLay's congressional seat, once viewed as a long shot, has created a tight race, according to a Houston Chronicle-11 News poll.
Thirty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a write-in candidate, a statistical tie with the 36 percent support for Democrat Nick Lampson, according to the poll of more than 500 likely voters in the 22nd Congressional District.
Most who say they will write in a candidate plan on naming Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, the Houston city councilwoman backed by the Republican Party. Two lesser-known candidates also are running as write-ins. <>P> One voter in four is still undecided.
Libertarian Bob Smither, the only person besides Lampson on the general election ballot, drew 4 percent support.
The third option on that ballot is "write-in." Voters who make that selection on the electronic voting machines that most will use are directed to an alphabet screen, where they use a wheel to spell out their choice's name a letter at a time.
Well-publicized race
About two-thirds of voters in the suburban Houston district know how to do that and are aware of a write-in candidacy, the poll shows.
"This is why we have elections and we don't have talking heads decide in May who the winners are going to be," said pollster John Zogby, president of Zogby International, which conducted the poll last week.
"Punditry was coloring the district blue. It's still a Republican district. Even harder than selling a write-in, is selling a Democrat in this district."
Fifty-two percent of poll respondents identified themselves as Republicans, 32 percent as Democrats and 16 percent as independent.
That GOP strength also was evident when poll respondents were asked specifically about Sekula-Gibbs, Lampson and Smither. Sekula-Gibbs drew 52 percent support in that situation, with Lampson holding at 35 percent.
"There reasonably enough would be a substantial number of Republicans looking for a Republican or at least not willing to vote for a Democrat," Zogby said.
But if Lampson were still facing DeLay — as he expected when he entered the race — he would fare much better, walking away with 48 percent of the vote to DeLay's 40 percent, the poll shows.
In the 2004 election, DeLay garnered 55 percent of the vote in a district that went 64 percent for Republican President Bush. DeLay — under fire for close ties to an indicted federal lobbyist and facing his own state indictment on charges relating to campaign finance — resigned from Congress after winning the GOP nomination for a 12th term.
Courts said his resignation came too late for Republicans to replace him on the regular ballot. Sekula-Gibbs is on the ballot in a separate special election to fill the last two months of DeLay's unexpired term. Lampson did not file in that race.
Although her name won't appear on the general election ballot, Sekula-Gibbs won the support of the state GOP as its write-in candidate.
Once an uphill battle
Republicans widely acknowledged then that her candidacy was an uphill battle. A write-in candidate has never won a U.S. House race in Texas. And only six write-in candidates nationwide have been elected to Congress — five in the House and one in the Senate.
Yet a week before Election Day, Sekula-Gibbs appears to be within striking distance.
"I think we are at the top of the hill. We are ready to plant the flag," Sekula-Gibbs said.
She has made the race close with saturation television advertising, much of it funded by the national party, that illustrates how to cast write-in votes. "This underscores what a weak candidate Lampson is," Sekula-Gibbs said of the Chronicle-Channel 11 poll. "He's spent millions and can't get more than 35 percent of people to support him."
Lampson said he remains encouraged, because it's hard to tell how many people will actually vote for a write-in.
"I felt this was doable from the beginning and I still feel that way now," Lampson said. "I knew I had to reach out to a community used to voting one way politically. And I've had to ask those people to have confidence in me."
Bush coming to town
Sekula-Gibbs may get a boost today, when President Bush visits Sugar Land for a get-out-the-vote rally. It is one of several free events the president is headlining in the waning days of the midterm campaign, hoping to energize the base and woo disenchanted Republicans.
Most of the tickets required to attend the event already have been distributed by Republican Party officials in the four counties that make up the 22nd District — Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria and Galveston.
Both Lampson and Sekula-Gibbs remain unfamiliar to one in four likely voters, though neither is new to the district.
Sekula-Gibbs has served on Houston City Council for five years and lives in the Clear Lake part of the district.
Lampson served in the U.S. House from 1997 to 2004, representing about 20 percent of what is now the 22nd District. He lost the seat in 2004 in congressional redistricting engineered by DeLay. He moved last year from Beaumont to Stafford, which is in the district.
"Both candidates seem to be swimming upstream here," Zogby said. "What's clear on one hand, is Nick Lampson seems to have had the opportunity and has not closed the deal just yet. On the same token, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs has a great opportunity in a Republican district."
Fifty-three percent of respondents have favorable opinions of Sekula-Gibbs, while 23 percent report unfavorable impressions. Lampson's favorables and unfavorables are about even — 38 percent favorable to 32 percent unfavorable.
Forty percent of poll respondents say they usually vote straight-party. Thirty-two percent plan on doing so this year.
Republican straight-ticket ballots will not register votes for Sekula-Gibbs, since the special election is nonpartisan and the general election does not have a Republican candidate in the district.
kristen.mack@chron.com
