Posted on 10/29/2006 8:17:42 PM PST by Alex1977
ATLANTA - With just over a week to go before Election Day, the match-up between U.S. Rep. John Barrow, D-Savannah, and former Congressmen Max Burns remains extremely tight, according to poll results announced Friday.
The latest survey in the 12th District congressional race shows Barrow with a slight edge over Burns - 42 percent to 39 percent - among voters who say they will cast ballots on Nov. 7.
But considering that the margin of error is 6 percentage points, the poll indicates the two candidates are running neck and neck. A high number of respondents - 19 percent - indicated they remain undecided.
Insider Advantage conducted the poll for Morris News Service, reaching 310 likely voters by telephone earlier this week who reside in the district, which covers 22 counties in eastern Georgia, including large portions of Chatham and Richmond.
Officials with both campaigns said they were not surprised by Friday's numbers.
"We always expected a close race," said Barrow campaign spokesman Harper Lawson. "And as we move into the closing days for the election, we feel that we have broad support."
Tim Baker, campaign manager for Burns, said their side was relying on last-minute grassroots efforts to draw supporters to the polls.
"It's a matter of who's going to turn their voters out," he said. "This is one of the most competitive races in the nation."
Last year, the Georgia Legislature redrew the district that Burns represented for a term before narrowly losing his seat to Barrow in 2004. This time, Barrow is running without the benefit of having his Democratic-leaning hometown of Athens included. The city was dropped in favor of several new rural counties being added.
Those new lines could be hurting Barrow who, as an incumbent, should be showing stronger support this close to the election, said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University.
"Incumbents tend to be well above 50 percent," he said. "This is a newly drawn district, and he's fairly unknown among many voters."
In the final days of campaigning, Barrow is stressing his proposals on health-care improvements, energy independence and increasing the minimum wage.
Burns, who has proposed abolishing income taxes and replacing them with a national 23 percent sales tax, has heavily criticized Barrow for supporting amnesty for illegal immigrants. Barrow instead has pointed out that he voted for a Republican-led bill last year that took a hard line against illegal immigrants, such as upping criminal penalties for being in the United States illegally, that did not include an amnesty program.
The campaign is one of a handful of congressional races the national Republican Party is targeting as a possibility for reclaiming a seat.
President Bush, who stopped in the district last month to support Burns, is expected to return Monday to campaign again for the Republican candidate from Sylvania.
"The president doesn't typically do that," said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock. "They might make two visits for a Senate race. But for a congressional race, it's atypical."
Bullock said that with Bush's popularity ratings running higher in Georgia than in other parts of the nation, the presidential visit could make a difference in vote counts. But, he said, a bigger influence could be the significant number of undecided voters.
Chatham County resident Helen Carter is among those who remain uncertain. Carter, 78, a retiree who describes herself as a Democrat, said she still needs to sort through both candidates' platforms.
"I know I've got to sit down and do it," she said. "I'm just not sure yet."
According to the Insider Advantage poll, 19 percent of surveyed voters in the district do not know which candidate they will support.
"I've got a suspicion that maybe a disproportionate chunk of that undecided vote would be African Americans," Bullock said, adding if that holds true, the race could swing Barrow's way on Nov. 7. "In reality, that vote would go to the Democrat. That is not a vote that's up for grabs."
"I've got a suspicion that maybe a disproportionate chunk of that undecided vote would be African Americans," Bullock said, adding if that holds true, the race could swing Barrow's way on Nov. 7. "In reality, that vote would go to the Democrat. That is not a vote that's up for grabs."
Why would African American's be undecided?
Excellent news, that is one of 3 or 4 seats that the Republican Party can pick up from their current democrat incumbents.
But..but...the media told me that only Republican seats are in play.
on a side note, dr. bullock is one of the very best professors at uga. i also believe he's a closeted conservative judging by the classes i have had with him
Shhhh. We're not suppose to notice democrat losses. This election is suppose to be all about hating George Bush, remember?
Maybe, but when organizing, he will still vote for Pelosi for Speaker if the Dems win. Nice prof, horrid House rep. since he will not support the GOP agenda no matter how conserv he is or is supposed to be.
6% and 310 people? so its a worthless poll...next
Typically, the late "undecided" vote breaks about 2-1 against the incumbent--who, in this case, would happen to be the Democrat, Barrow. If Burns gets just 12 of the 19 points currently undecided--less than the usual two-thirds--that would put him over the top, with 51 percent of the vote.
In his TV ads, Barrow has mocked Max's stand on the Fair Tax. The commercial states correctly that Max is in favor of a 23% sales tax. However, it does not mention that virtually all other taxes would be done away with.
A person could easily get the idea that Max is in favor of a 23% tax on top of what we already have.
Dirty pool, Mr. Barrow. Shame on you!
Max Burns BUMP!!
Because the liberals need they vote Democrats. Media bias in play.
You should be fair, and show John Barrow's hometown as well on the map. Athens is somewhat to the northwest of the 12th district.
But considering that the margin of error is 6 percentage points, the poll indicates the two candidates are running neck and neck. A high number of respondents - 19 percent - indicated they remain undecided.
Insider Advantage conducted the poll for Morris News Service, reaching 310 likely voters by telephone earlier this week who reside in the district, which covers 22 counties in eastern Georgia, including large portions of Chatham and Richmond.
As far as I am concerned 310 voters is a junk poll. Remember that a 6pt moe means that the race could be +6 for Burns and -6 for Barrows - that is Burns 45% over Barrows' 36%. With the over-sampling of Dems in polls there is real chance that Burns is indeed at 45%. In fact I have not been watching this race but I am going to predict, with admittedly no background to base this on except for the Dem bias in polling, that Burns will win with 43% over Barrows' 38%.
That's why people like Denny Hastert keep saying "These Congressional Races are not a national election but 435 individual elections.
I've got a feeling that there are many more current Dem seats in play for the Pubbies to take. The MSM just doesn't talk about them.
Another reason I feel that we will keep control of The House.
Remember 2002 when at the last hour exit polling results were withheld because the pollsters "didn't trust" their statistical models? No guessing just the pleasure of watching actual vote totals roll in with minimum spin (quoting last polls conducted before the election) Although the MSM was weary because of the 2000 polling debacle it still is not too conspiratorial to conclude that the liberal pollsters saw the reality that the Republicans were probably going to hold (and make gains in...)the House and gain back the Senate (no thanks to Jim Jeffords) when traditionally the party that just won the White House loses seats and decided to pull the plug on exit poll results rather than to broadcast encouraging stats that indicated a solid Pubbie win - stats that would effect voting at open polls out west. Sorry about the previous super-sized sentence.
The FAIR tax is a joke, and any Republican who endorses it deserves what he gets.
And we shall :)
The Dims are going to lose a seat in Oregon. Hooley who won by 15 votes last time is going to get the boot this time. She is a Rural/Republican district.
Pray for W and Our Troops
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.