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RealClearPolitics Posts Polling Data on Current Rep. House Seats -- 8 "Lean Dem," 16 "Toss Up"
RealClearPolitics.com ^ | October 28, 2006 | RCP Polling Links

Posted on 10/28/2006 12:50:44 PM PDT by StJacques

Battle For the House of Representatives

Republican Seats

Lean Dem (8)

Toss Up (16)

Lean GOP (21)

Note: According to RealClearPolitics.com, no Democrat seats are in play.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: congress; election; house; republican
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To: MNJohnnie
"Curious. You always put the most favorable possible spin on Democrat chances in your posting. What do you do for a living that qualifies you to make forecasts on the out come of Elections?"

I'm a software developer who used to work as a Research Analyst, which means that I do understand quantitative analysis. I know what polling is about.

And I don't think I've ever tried to put a "favorable" spin on a "pro-Democratic outcome." I'm a diehard Republican activist who has worked in the trenches for years. But I DO THINK WE ARE IN TROUBLE IN THE HOUSE RACES!

We have less than 10 days to finish strong enough to get it done, I'm hoping we do.
81 posted on 10/28/2006 4:06:03 PM PDT by StJacques (Liberty is always unfinished business)
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To: saganite

I hope you walk your precinct. It could make the difference.


82 posted on 10/28/2006 4:07:31 PM PDT by AdvisorB
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To: NeoCaveman

Add Harold Ford's seat in Memphis. There is such division on which of the two liberals running, that the Republican's chances are looking fair.


83 posted on 10/28/2006 4:09:50 PM PDT by Ingtar (Prensa dos para el inglés)
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To: Congressman Billybob

When my dad took station wagon loads of children, both his own and assorted neighbors, and nephews, on road trips, he usually stopped the car near his destination, and told the boys to run to the other side of the lake, or battlefield or whatever destination.

Those boys, who are now fathers, understand totally the wisdom of my father's method - something that puzzled them as kids. Those road trips are some of their fondest memories, and no pharmaceuticals were necessary to keep the boys from getting too fidgety!


84 posted on 10/28/2006 4:10:48 PM PDT by maica (9/11 was not “the day everything changed”, but the day that revealed how much had already changed.)
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To: StJacques

Better cut back on the alcohol intake, you are starting to see things that are not there.


85 posted on 10/28/2006 4:12:32 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (EeevilCon, Snowflake, Conservative Fundamentalist Gun Owning Bush Bot Dittohead reporting for duty!)
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To: StJacques

..let's wait until the last 48 hrs. to really look at polls...


86 posted on 10/28/2006 4:13:55 PM PDT by WalterSkinner ( ..when there is any conflict between God and Caesar -- guess who loses?)
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To: Ingtar

So you are thinking that Jake Ford (there's that name again) can siphon off enough votes to deny the race to Cohen and hand it to White?

Fascniating, I'll keep an eye on (TN-9) but these kind of things tend to happen once a cycle at most.


87 posted on 10/28/2006 4:20:38 PM PDT by NeoCaveman (Politics ain't beanbag. Make it a Rovetember to remember)
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To: speekinout
How so? The House can cut off all spending for Iraq and spend 2 years on Impeachment proceedings. That would be a disaster.

They aren't going to be able to actually pass anything meaningful with a 1 - 2 seat majority. If they start impeachment proceedings, it would blow up in their faces big time.

Again, I hope we win this cycle, but if it is just going to be 1 or 2 seats either way, then there are a few strategic advantages associated with NOT having to run things without a working majority.

That is all I am saying.

88 posted on 10/28/2006 4:22:35 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: damper99
I think Norhup is a likely loss, and a sleeper is the district just south of Louisville (KY2). Not on anyone's radar, but Colonel Weaver (D) is probably going to take that from Lewis (R).

I really think Lewis is safe.

Northup is in a tough race, but her opponent is a true moon bat, and her ads have effectively painted him as such. I see her winning a close one.

89 posted on 10/28/2006 4:27:10 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: jmaroneps37
"Relax. Take a deep breath and think. Real Clear is just averaging Democrat leaning polls. Real Clear does not do it's own polling. The polls are always a lagging indicator."

Yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes. Thanks for introducing some reality to this thread.

90 posted on 10/28/2006 4:33:14 PM PDT by Rokke
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To: MNJohnnie
"I followed the polling links and they do not show your 18 seat forecast at all. How is it you see something no one else can reading the data?"

First of all, it is not my "18 seat forecast." In fact I made no forecast nor did I say that RealClearPolitics did. They only present poll results on the page of links I put up. Here's what I wrote:

". . . you will see that according to most recent polling data the Democrats are in good shape to pick up between 16 - 18 seats . . ."

I revealed what the polling data says, and that holds up. You take the 8 seats RCP lists as "leaning Dem" and the look at the following:

NY-24 - Dem +11
IA-1 - Dem up from 7 to 11 in all but Zogby and in only poll since Oct. 2
OH-15 - Dem +12 in only poll since 9/24
IN-2 - In all polls from 9/25 to present Dem up from 1 to 16 pts.
NM-1 - Dem is up 3 to 10 pts. in every poll since 9/25.
IN-9 - Dem is up in every poll listed this year, +4 in most recent.
NC-11 - Dem is up in every poll listed this year, +8 & +11 in two most recent.
PA-6 - Dem is up 2 to 6 pts. in every poll since 9/25.

That makes 16 pickups for the Dems right there -- if the polling data holds, and I'm hoping it doesn't.

Then we take a look at:

FL-13 - Dem has led 3 to 11 pts. in every poll listed
CT-4 - Shays tied most recent poll, hasn't led since 10/1, CT is not friendly territory

And 18 becomes a real possibility.

"Suspect your are confusing what you HOPE with reality."

Johnnie, I can't believe you said that to me. Follow the links and see that all of the above are true renditions of the polling data.

I'm not discussing polling results so that we can all sit down and reassure each other everything is going to be ok. I think we've got to work our a$$e$ off because the polls say we're in trouble.
91 posted on 10/28/2006 4:34:05 PM PDT by StJacques (Liberty is always unfinished business)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

Granite not true. Show me credible polls on these races. No College or local media polls please.


92 posted on 10/28/2006 4:39:35 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: damper99

Damper please, let they the adults speak.


93 posted on 10/28/2006 4:41:20 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: WalterSkinner

Walter well said. all these polls are like the cartoons before the main feature.


94 posted on 10/28/2006 4:42:46 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: StJacques
Agreed mate. But here is the thing with the polls and hacks like Charlie Cook and Sabato.

In the last 10 days pollsters and Predictors will start to narrow there numbers knowing if they screw up with liberal bias they will become discredited like Zogby and Sabato in 2004 who had a President Kerry.

RealClearpolitics just averages bias polls and their blog predicted a Francine Busby win the June Cal 50 special.
95 posted on 10/28/2006 4:46:54 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: MNJohnnie

Johnnie a article popped up last week about the Wealth of GOTV.

On election eve 2002 Sonny Perdue in Georgia received a note from his campaign that showed DEM and Republican internals showing he was 11 points behind to Roy Barnes in a state that had never had a GOP Governor.

Perdue told his wimpy Campaign manager that he would win because of GOTV. And he won by %5. The GOP will pick up 2 DEM House seats this year also.


96 posted on 10/28/2006 4:52:38 PM PDT by Welike ike
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To: jmaroneps37
The polls are always a lagging indicator.

Bingo.

The James "Banana" Webb dust up happened before the latest polls. The smart pundits believe this ugly incident has national implications - just as the MSM and the Democrats cheered when the Foley fiasco hit.

The poll numbers from this Wed or Thurs should be very interesting.

97 posted on 10/28/2006 4:52:42 PM PDT by SkyPilot
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To: Welike ike
"Damper please, let they the adults speak."

Looks like your mother didn't check your grammar before she allowed you to post.

In which KY district do you reside, Ike?

98 posted on 10/28/2006 5:00:17 PM PDT by damper99
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To: StJacques; everyone

You all need to relax. The DEMS are laughing watching you guys panic. The Dems are not going to win. The media predicts this EVERYTIME!.. In 2002 the media was saying the dems only need 6 seats to win now its 16. You guys are buying into the same crap the media wants you to. After 9-11 the montra that all politics are local has changed. Everyone knows the media lies especially since the web. Everyone now see the big picture. I am pro-life and use to only vote pro life candidates but now I see the bigger picture about controlling agenda and the what comes up for a vote. This is especially true in regards to defense. 60% on America is conservative. That 60% won't let us down. GO to church and pray. Say a Novena, light a candle or whatever just have faith!


99 posted on 10/28/2006 5:16:12 PM PDT by CptRepublican (Relax....)
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To: NeoCaveman

Jake Ford is the one the race pushers in Memphis are telling their followers to vote for. I don't know if it can happen, but for the first time I am voting for someone that might have a chance.


100 posted on 10/28/2006 5:35:31 PM PDT by Ingtar (Prensa dos para el inglés)
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