RealClearPolitics Posts Polling Data on Current Rep. House Seats -- 8 "Lean Dem," 16 "Toss Up"

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | October 28, 2006 | RCP Polling Links

[StJacques]

Battle For the House of Representatives

Republican Seats

Lean Dem (8)

Toss Up (16)

Lean GOP (21)

Note: According to RealClearPolitics.com, no Democrat seats are in play.

[AdvisorB]

Thank you WOSG.

Michael Barone, author of the American Political Almanac, and politcal analyst for US News and World Report, has the democrats winning 16 seats in the coming election. That allows the democrats to line up the House by one vote. Barone has both the FL13 (Buchanan) and the FL16 (Foley/Negron) races as "lean democrat." If that is the case, than we only have to win one of either FL13 or FL16 to retain "control" of the House, and prevent the coronation of a Speaker bela Pelosi.

I have been working in Charlotte County where the Negron, Mack, and Buchanan districts intersect. I have made calls for both Negron and Buchanan, and walked precincts for Negron. I am feeling real good about Negron's prospects, and I believe that Joe will emerge victorious from this campaign.

[WOSG]

You are correct - your races in FL could determine who is speaker of the House!

You could use this as a reminder of what's at stake with voters:
http://freedomstruth.blogspot.com/2006/10/left-wing-pol-to-become-speaker.html

If we can hold on to 8 of the below races, then it's a 14 seat loss ... I count about 7-10 races could be held, depending on key areas of PA, IN, and OH ... and FL!

The 22 most vulnerable GOP seats:
1. TX-22: (Open - R) (write-in GIBBS wont win - DEM)
2. AZ-8: (Open - R) (I wanna believe, but ...)
3. FL-16: (Open - R) (Foley/Negron - we pull it out, thanks to the polling place info)
4. PA-10: (Sherwood - R) (we are toast - DEM)
5. IN-8: (Hostettler - R) (conservative district, but ...)
6. CO-7: (Open - R) (ODonnell is underdog; Latest poll is tie, but most polls have DEM ahead)
7. PA-7: (Weldon - R)
8. OH-18: (Open - R) (GOP district, but Ney/Taft factor)
9. NY-24: (Open - R)
10. NC-11: (Taylor - R)
11. IA-1: (Open - R) (DEM win in liberal district)
12. IN-2: (Chocola - R) (he's down, but I believe he can pull it out)
13. NM-1: (Wilson - R) (I saw the debate - devastating for Madrid, she's a bumbler, Wilson wins)
14. NY-26: (Reynolds - R) (Reynolds up in latest polls)
15. CT-4: (Shays - R) (I think he hangs on thanks to Lieberman factor, Lieberman smokes Lamont and saves CT RINOs)
16. OH-15: (Pryce - R) (I wanna believe she hangs on, but marginal)
17. IN-9: (Sodrel - R) (a true tossup)
18. PA-6: (Gerlach - R) ( Gerlach is 3pt underdog)
19. FL-13: (Open - R) (move to lean GOP)
20. IL-6: (Open - R) (GOP wins; Roskam ahead, better campaign)
21. MN-6: (Open - R) (Bachmann is ahead, Wetterling cut-n-ran from debate!)
22. CT-2: (Simmons - R) (See #15, hangs on)

[Howlin]

Proving my point, you're a retread. Thank you very much.

And this is NOT a blog.

[damper99]

This morning Lewis' hometown newspaper, The News Enterprise, endorsed Weaver. In the past, Lewis got their endorsement. Lewis is like many others that went to Washington to change it, but it changed him. I'll vote for him, but I think he's in a lot of trouble.

[REDWOOD99]

I've been looking all over for a hig hose. Where did you find yours?

[RockinRight]

Some conservative computer nerd needs to develop a search engine to rival Google that is non-biased.

[RockinRight]

I'm saying we'll keep the House...but BY ONE SINGLE SEAT.

[WOSG]

"In 2002 RealClearPolitics was the ONLY major political observer site to predict the Republican gains which did surface on election day. That is part of what makes me nervous. They do not shiv for Dems."

Correct. Look at my other post, going race by race, it is looking better than media would make us believe but "better" than a "wipeout" is still very tough - double digits loss in the House, and it would be a good election if we manage to hang on and prevent Pelosi from becoming speaker.

Those who are counting on Rove's words are whistling past the grveyard. It's not words but actions that win elections.
Depending on OUR ACTIONS, we could retain the House or lose it. So Freepers: block off 2 hours of time and go help a GOTV phone bank some night this week or next weekend, or help in your local area by block walking or doing duty outside a polling place next weekend. Every bit helps.

... that reminds me, I've got go out and put up some candidate signs.

[ShandaLear]

Interesting anecdote. I talked to my mom yesterday who just voted a straight Republican ticket. In her neighborhood, there are at least 5 households who are Democrat. In her conversations with them, none are planning to vote in this election. Their reason is that they are "disgusted with the process." These are not radical left wingers, they are people who I would term as institutional Democrats, raised in Dem households who vote Dem just because they always have. It makes me wonder how many people are out there just like them who aren't interested in voting this time around.

It bears repeating, turnout will be everything this time around.

[Starboard]

When people start really thinking about how to run the country most they don't want the San Fransisco/Massachusetts type politicians spreading their socialist, pro-abortion, gay agenda.

San Fransachusetts Liberals! Ha, ha.

[LS]

All: just returned from a conference at Hillsdale College. Some BIG names there, including George Gilder, a Fed Reserve director, and some big academics. At any rate, two things:

1) On the way up, at the Mich. border, I heard two ads. One was Lee Iacocca (a Dem) doing a very good ad for Dick DeVos!!! A second was Granholm . . . virtually BEGGING the Dem base to come out, saying "now's not the time to stay home." What does this tell you about the Dems' confidence in their ability to get out the vote.

Second, I spoke to a statistician who had worked on several Michigan campaigns. He AGREED with my take on the polls (no, he didn't fully subscribe to the LS rule of subracting 5 from the Dem and adding 5 to the R, but he did agree they were substantially off). He had a different take that I did on why: I say it's because they oversample Dems, he said it's because they oversample WOMEN, who tend to be more Democratic. Interesting. He thought Blackwell and Dewine were both down mid-single digits . . . exactly where I think they are.

Finally, he pointed out that John Engler, in his first election, was down 13 on the Friday before the election, and won; and that Spence Abraham was down double digits in his senate race on the weekend before the election, and won.

He also pointed out that in his polling, he found that blacks, when asked about a name (esp. if they know the party) will often select the Dem out of intimidation or whatever. When asked to choose between PICTURES of candidates---Blackwell or Strickland---that they were far more likely to pick the R.

[LS]

So, if we carry all the toss-ups and get half the "lean Dems," we GAIN seats?

[LS]

Carson, D-IN, in big trouble. She loses. Bean, IL, in big trouble. Two seats in GA, I'm hearing, will almost certainly go R. That's four GOP pickups.

[LS]

I think so. See my post above. The trend is our friend.

[LS]

Nice troll effort, but away with you. The fact is, we're certain to break even in the Senate, and may well have a net gain of one there; and we'll hold the house, and can even gain there.

[LS]

Lessons from Sun Tzu: you are never, ever in "better shape" by losing.

It's amazing how many people forget simple military maxims. (Churchill: "Wars are not won by evacuations.")

[LS]

Owen, you speak logically. But we are dealing with hysteria here (of the same sort I had to bash down on election day, 2004) and also with rampant media bias.

The fact is, if we lose so much as ONE house seat (we'll easily hold the senate, and may gain a seat), the media will portray this as a Dem "avalanche." We cannot cede one METER of territory to these creeps, and the people around here need to understand that and GET TO WORK.

(Churchill: "Wars are not won by evacuations.")

[napscoordinator]

Things look good.



You are clearly DU. Can you imagine that you believe things look good while we lose 10 seats minimum. I guess when I lose 20 dollars in the stock market I should be glad it was not 40. Your enthusiam for us losing seats is amazing and disturbing.

[Names Ash Housewares]

I think that is telling. Dems are more emotional, I know we get our disgruntled right wingers here too, but I would bet anything that there are far more disgruntled dems.
Right thinkers are more logical, far more likely to understand how important voting is, no matter what.

[Positive]

I looked at the page.

They show GOP seats leaning D, Toss up and leaning R.

They then show Dim seats leaning R(0), Toss up(0) and leaning D(5).

To me this begs the question: what is the definitive difference between GOP seats leaning D and Dim seats leaning D?

Since there are no Dim seats leaning R and no Dim seats toss up, what does Dim seat "leaning D" really mean?