Posted on 10/26/2006 4:45:06 AM PDT by veronica
To counter polls, GOP returns to trusted approach to drawing voters
WASHINGTON - Predicting that Republicans will defy low expectations in the Nov. 7 election and retain control of Congress, President Bush mentioned a campaign approach Wednesday that played a key role in his 2004 re-election.
"We're organized," he said of his party's vaunted voter-mobilization drives. "We've got a fantastic grass-roots organization to turn out the vote."
The election results will show whether the GOP machine is powerful enough to overcome what many polls show to be low public ratings of Bush's performance, the war in Iraq and the performance of Republican majorities in the House and Senate.
Most independent political analysts predict that, amid those negative factors and scandals involving a few Republican lawmakers, Democrats will grab the majority of seats in the House, if not both chambers.
Despite the gloom, Republican campaign operatives sound confident. They have been fine-tuning their data-mining, micro-targeting and other methods that served them well in past elections. Some Democrats are beginning to sound worried.
"In a country where in our best elections half the people don't vote, the party that can actually turn out their voters with discipline and effectiveness is going to be a successful party," Richard Gephardt, former Democratic House leader and 2004 presidential candidate, said during a forum this week.
Democrats have been working to match Republican strategies and organization, Gephardt said. "But I still don't believe it's up to par with where the Republicans are."
'Unprecedented' effort Republicans, led by White House political guru Karl Rove, sought in 2002 to reverse a decades-long Democratic edge in voter turnout that was fueled in large part by well-organized labor unions.
The GOP developed a program that started three days before the election. It was aimed at identifying Republicans and likely Republican voters and getting them to the polls. The tactic was fine-tuned in 2004 and will be even more effective this year, Republicans said.
"We are putting forward the most unprecedented grass-roots effort in the history of midterm elections," said Danny Diaz, spokesman for the Republican National Committee. "We outraised the Democrats, we've made more voter contacts, and our (get-out-the-vote) operation is more robust — we are extremely confident we have built a foundation to maintain our majorities."
The Republican Party has raised $199.4 million since the 2004 elections, almost double the $108.4 million raised by the Democrats.
Data-mining techniques In 2004, the Republican Party used marketing-style data-mining — for example, calculating whether a certain voter in a particular district owned a snowmobile and was therefore a likely Republican voter, then targeting the prospect with a narrow political message.
"In Michigan they are looking for snowmobile owners and letting them know that Democrats want to close down their trails," said John Fortier, a political scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
Fortier said turnout in any election is decided by factors that include the intensity of voter interest — Democrats may have the advantage this year — and efforts to get out the vote.
For sheer organization, it's still tough to beat the Republican machine, Fortier said. The party's system recently helped deliver a primary victory to Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, who was trailing in the polls against the more conservative Republican challenger Steve Laffey. The GOP had feared that with Laffey as its nominee, the Democrats would win the general election.
"Democrats are less centralized, and they leave a lot of that work up to outside groups, like Emily's List," Fortier said of the group that backs female candidates. "The Republicans figured out they were better off with a centralized system, and with people and volunteers working directly for the party."
A matter of timing Getting voters to the polls is also a matter of timing, experts said, a consideration made trickier in states such as Texas that have a significant early-voting period. Congressional elections also are dicey because there is no presidential race to attract voters; turnout is traditionally lower in the middle of a presidential term.
"We started a month ago with the over-65-year-olds, getting those people to get their ballot by mail and voting them at home," Allen Blakemore, a Houston Republican political consultant, said of the latest vote-production efforts. "We started Monday morning turning people out for early voting, we got the robo-calls going, and they won't stop until Nov. 7th."
Campaigns try to boost turnout by targeting voters who tend to vote early and providing them with information about voting hours, ballots and maps to polling places near their districts.
Using voting histories, campaigns can pinpoint individual voters and give them last-minute campaign literature close to the time they tend to vote. Blakemore, who represents several local Republican candidates, said he will dispatch the same political mail piece to different recipients on different days, based on when he thinks they are likely to cast their ballots.
To help the party motivate voters in the last days of the campaign, Bush will do a five-day fly-around of key states and districts, with a stop in Dallas on Nov. 6 for Gov. Rick Perry, before heading to Crawford to vote on Election Day. On Oct. 30, Bush will lead a rally for Republicans at Sugar Land Regional Airport.
"Our people are going out there to man the phones and to put up the yard signs," Bush said Wednesday. "You know, they're showing up when it comes time to (send in) these absentee votes.
"We've got some people dancing in the end zone here in Washington, D.C.," Bush said of the Democrats. "But the American people are going to decide, and they're going to decide this race based upon who best to protect the American people and who best to keep the taxes low."
" The Republican Party has raised $199.4 million since the 2004 elections, almost double the $108.4 million raised by the Democrats."
Americans contribute to the Republican party. We have a significant advantage over the Democrats in rasining funds because we rely on individual donors who will contribute 20 bucks.
Because the Democrat party is a collection of individual interest groups that share a common theme which is turning this country into a Marxist state controlled by the UN, they get a few donations from the rank and file. Most of their money comes from wealthy elitists who are looking for a seat at the grownups table when their egalitarian society is formed.
Excellent post as usual Veronica. This type of info is more important than bias media polls anyday.
What these drive media types in the MSM don't realize is the existence of the secret underground conservative army. The freepers, pajamahadin, the national defense moms are mobilizing for the biggest political upset since the "W" win in 2000. We are mere hicks, rubes and fewls that live under the radar in red state fly-over country...ignore us at your peril....
I heard our beloved President speak his mind yesterday and cheered. So the driveby media did hear him. :^)
Why do they need to oil it. According to some of the MSM's wacky friends the Diebold already gave the GOP the codes to the machine. :D
Overall, election year politics is a game of single digit percentages. A mere three or four percent shift or change in the voting patterns can reverse a "sure thing" landslide and turn it into a decisive victory going the other way.
Yeah , but even with Diebold working for us , its hard to stop all those dead votes the Dems bring in. LOL
"Democrats have been working to match Republican strategies and organization,[Cheeks] Gephardt said. "But I still don't believe it's up to par with where the Republicans are."
When he is no longer in the game, telling the truth comes a bit easier to the rat.
Here's to you secret underground conservative guy, and while you are driving around picking up all your secret underground conservative guy friends to vote on election day, remember to pop open a cold, mouthwatering Budweiser.
the Bud is chilling...
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