Posted on 10/25/2006 8:12:42 PM PDT by neverdem
NEWHOUSE NEWS SERVICE
If there's one thing pundits agree on, it's that the Republican Party has more to lose in this year's midterm election. An understandable conclusion since the GOP controls everything in Washington but the weather. But it's dead wrong. It's the Democrats who are more at risk.
Look at it this way: If Democrats can't capture either the Senate or the House of Representatives in a climate this toxic for Republicans — incompetent conduct of a needless war abroad and mounting evidence of congressional corruption at home — they'll be a national laughingstock.
It won't be easy, especially capturing the Senate, where Democrats need to win at least six of the seven or eight seats rated toss-ups while retaining the seat they already hold in New Jersey that's considered up for grabs. The House, where Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats among the 40 to 45 deemed competitive, looks more doable. But no sure thing. Still, should they blow it, Democrats can expect a popular demand that they do the right thing and file for bankruptcy. Go the way of the Whigs, as it were.
Political success is measured as much by perception and expectations as by reality, maybe more. And the perception today, as measured by the polls and signs of flagging enthusiasm among some conservatives, is that President Bush's Republican Party has lost its way — it's not even very conservative anymore — and has forfeited its right to rule.
The polls everywhere outside the hard-core South are dismal for the president and discouraging for GOP candidates who can't escape his shadow. But they have created a great expectations test for Democrats in the bargain. If they can't win now, when can they ever?
Russ Hemenway of the liberal National Committee for an Effective Congress in New York has been working in national electoral politics for more than 50 years and says he has seen few years as promising for Democrats as this one — but the risk that goes with that promise is great.
The impact of another Democratic failure Nov. 7, he said, "would be a terrible psychological blow." On a more practical level, it would be disastrous for Democratic efforts to recruit attractive candidates in the years immediately ahead and for raising money, he said.
Democrats have enjoyed one of their best years in memory in the search for top-tier candidates for the Senate and House, Hemenway said. But it wasn't easy and it required an extravagant promise.
"We told them they'll be in the majority in the next Congress, that these were the best conditions for Democrats in years," Hemenway said. "We told them they will be able to get things done."
Majority-party status is particularly important in the House. With it go chairmanships of subcommittees, even for freshmen, plus patronage, influence or even control over legislation and spending and, most important, the power to hold hearings that draw the press and attract usually favorable attention back home.
Minority members of the House, on the other hand, are usually as conspicuous in the congressional legislative process as the wallpaper. Only on extremely close issues do their votes matter at all — something majorities ordinarily take care to avoid. Why give the opposition a chance to be heard?
It's not quite that bad for senators in the minority. Senators have stature and are more visible personalities in Washington as well as at home. Even in the minority, they're pampered and sought after as talking heads on television. And the more collegial, less partisan atmosphere of the Senate offers even minority members an occasional chance to be heard. But even in the Senate, members of the minority chafe at their limitations.
For Democrats, perhaps the worst fallout from failure in the November elections is that it would allow Republicans to justifiably cite the results as a vindication for the Bush record and a rejection of Democrats as a credible alternative.
"If that happens," Hemenway said, "Democrats will be out of power for at least another decade."
...to God's ears!
This is one for the records... a keeper.
If this does indeed happen I will post it for all the lib bloggers here in NY..
Just wish Hillary would fall of the earth.
BTTT!
Maybe Lieberman could start a third party too. I bet that would really bring the dems down big time.
same here! LOL Some little kid was at my house the other day handing out flyers for his mom but I couldn't bring myself to ask him and just took the dumb flyer... and threw it in the trash :)
You're much kinder than I am. I never give a stinking Dem the time of day....no matter how young or old he/she is. Heck, I won't even go to a damned Dem dentist or doctor!
BTW, Welcome! 70% is a good score.
I'm at roughly 90% myself.
.
We've got to face The Beast in 2008.
I prefer to call her "She Who Must Not Be Named".
"LBJ's toliet paper is right about one thing: if the Dims lose, they will go crazy."
In order to go crazy, they'd need to take a U turn because they are already way beyond crazy.
Bring Out Your Dead.....Bring Out Your Dead......Bring Out Your Dead!
Pray for W and Our Troops
And that was the only Presidential election I didn't participate in since I was old enough to vote. It was just too pathetic.
You know, I'm not wild about the do nothing democrat look alike republicans, but seeing the Democrats go nuts on election night is worth voting republican at least one last time! Trash can paging Mr. Carvell!
I dont even know what the lady was! LOL! I didn't even read the flyer! LOL
As with this and post #28, I really like your thinking!
CA....
"I won't even go to a damned Dem dentist"
Seems I remember somone on here a few days ago said they went to a dentist, and after he had the drill going, he said something like " you're voting Democrat, right?"
I remember it very well! It was the first time I did NOT vote DEMOCRAT! I think it was an "ah..hah" moment for me, and I never looked back.
I just got back from vacation, so I didn't see that, but OMG...I would have gotten up and left, had a dentist said that to me and told him what he could do with his bill and his damned Dem politics, to boot!
They were supposed to be destroyed when they couldn't steal the election in 2000 and 2004. Unfortunately, they keep coming back to life.
And I just know you would have told him where to put his drill... :-)
If ever there was an election that requires thinking with the head it's going to be '08.
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