Posted on 10/25/2006 8:12:42 PM PDT by neverdem
NEWHOUSE NEWS SERVICE
If there's one thing pundits agree on, it's that the Republican Party has more to lose in this year's midterm election. An understandable conclusion since the GOP controls everything in Washington but the weather. But it's dead wrong. It's the Democrats who are more at risk.
Look at it this way: If Democrats can't capture either the Senate or the House of Representatives in a climate this toxic for Republicans — incompetent conduct of a needless war abroad and mounting evidence of congressional corruption at home — they'll be a national laughingstock.
It won't be easy, especially capturing the Senate, where Democrats need to win at least six of the seven or eight seats rated toss-ups while retaining the seat they already hold in New Jersey that's considered up for grabs. The House, where Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats among the 40 to 45 deemed competitive, looks more doable. But no sure thing. Still, should they blow it, Democrats can expect a popular demand that they do the right thing and file for bankruptcy. Go the way of the Whigs, as it were.
Political success is measured as much by perception and expectations as by reality, maybe more. And the perception today, as measured by the polls and signs of flagging enthusiasm among some conservatives, is that President Bush's Republican Party has lost its way — it's not even very conservative anymore — and has forfeited its right to rule.
The polls everywhere outside the hard-core South are dismal for the president and discouraging for GOP candidates who can't escape his shadow. But they have created a great expectations test for Democrats in the bargain. If they can't win now, when can they ever?
Russ Hemenway of the liberal National Committee for an Effective Congress in New York has been working in national electoral politics for more than 50 years and says he has seen few years as promising for Democrats as this one — but the risk that goes with that promise is great.
The impact of another Democratic failure Nov. 7, he said, "would be a terrible psychological blow." On a more practical level, it would be disastrous for Democratic efforts to recruit attractive candidates in the years immediately ahead and for raising money, he said.
Democrats have enjoyed one of their best years in memory in the search for top-tier candidates for the Senate and House, Hemenway said. But it wasn't easy and it required an extravagant promise.
"We told them they'll be in the majority in the next Congress, that these were the best conditions for Democrats in years," Hemenway said. "We told them they will be able to get things done."
Majority-party status is particularly important in the House. With it go chairmanships of subcommittees, even for freshmen, plus patronage, influence or even control over legislation and spending and, most important, the power to hold hearings that draw the press and attract usually favorable attention back home.
Minority members of the House, on the other hand, are usually as conspicuous in the congressional legislative process as the wallpaper. Only on extremely close issues do their votes matter at all — something majorities ordinarily take care to avoid. Why give the opposition a chance to be heard?
It's not quite that bad for senators in the minority. Senators have stature and are more visible personalities in Washington as well as at home. Even in the minority, they're pampered and sought after as talking heads on television. And the more collegial, less partisan atmosphere of the Senate offers even minority members an occasional chance to be heard. But even in the Senate, members of the minority chafe at their limitations.
For Democrats, perhaps the worst fallout from failure in the November elections is that it would allow Republicans to justifiably cite the results as a vindication for the Bush record and a rejection of Democrats as a credible alternative.
"If that happens," Hemenway said, "Democrats will be out of power for at least another decade."
You mean totally off-the-wall, over-the-top, completely lost their minds crazy? Doing insane, delusional and destructive things like claiming that America is pro-torture, that it's president started the war in Iraq for profit, undermining and exposing crucial intelligence and counter intelligence operations in a time of war, actively helping homicidal enemies of global civilization to "lawyer up," and that sort of thing?
Can you get crazier than that?
"At the height of its power, inexplicably, it aborted itself."
And prior to that, republicans got mad at the first president Bush and either didn't vote, or many voted for Perot thus making Clinton the winner. Now, because of what went down in 1992, clinton's wife is now a senator and a potential presidential candidate. Yeah, republicans, those who are going to sit out this election, may well remember 1992.
The GOP does not control its own Departments. Look at State and what it has done to Rice and through her to the President.
The permanent government, the untouchable Civil Service bureaucrats are and always will be Statist and mostly Democrat. Reagan had to bypass the CIA to get useful intelligence on the USSR and was resisted by the bureaucracy, especially the State Dept. at all points.
Gee what a friggin shame that would be ...
Yeah, they can start shooting people and blowing things up. I kid you not.
I hope they also remember another date...9/11.
Actually, the problem for RATS is that a large percentage of their base doesn't show up for mid-term elections. They win mid-term elections when Republicans don't show up, and they have a measure of success in on-term elections due to voter fraud.
Every election, of course, renders new data and new analysis, but I will remain convinced until disproven that we win as long as we show up and overcome fraud sufficiently. Maybe not every seat, but sufficient numbers.
Asking someone to choose between that same incumbent and a flesh-and-blood opponent is an entirely different question.
And also keep in mind that given that the dems would be willing to give in to the terrorists in Iraq, that we can't allow dems to take control of congress.
It's very possible. They could go Palestinian.
Liberals are trying to motivate *their* base to not screw up now!!!
Hmmmmmmm.
This feels like a poker game where one side just said "All IN".
"It's very possible. They could go Palestinian."
The only good thing here is that more of us have guns for self defense than they do. More of us probably know how to use them.
It will be a great day when we finally plunge a stake through the heart of the vampire party.Appoligies to any vampires living or dead.When that is done then we need to weed out the rinos of our party.
The Beast will simply be a Last Hurrah...
The Dem Party Apparachiks are already salivating at the skim they'll get from a Hillary Campaign, and could care less if she wins or not...
Those fancy Limos, Private Jets, and Waterfront homes aren't cheap, you know...
I ALWAYS Vote straight (R), the hard part is getting the local people right that don't label themselves on the ballot, when they walk around the neighborhood "pressing the flesh" i ask them if they "lean right or lean left" :::wink wink:: (:
I ALWAYS vote a straight R ticket and when I am faced with a politico, whom I do not know, I ask whether he/she is a STINKING Dem or a GOPer, before I will allow that person to "press the flesh" and/or shove some paper into my hands. You should see the looks I sometime get. hehehehehehehehehe
Not if conservatives continue to vote party over principle. Viable third parties only appear when folks STOP holding their noses and voting party-line, and try something more to their liking. 95% of what I read these days on FR is "Find the (R), hold your nose, and press the lever", not "Do what you believe in." It's unreal. And no I don't want the Dems to win. What I want is for conservatives to vote their beliefs -- otherwise we're just kidding ourselves. Politicians ignore us except when we're voting -- why should we throw away our only chance to make them listen?
> I almost hope that the dems get their act together a little. If they weren't anti-gun and anti-defense, a lot of folks could vote for them (not me) and this would force our party to the right. With the above scenario, we are going to have to hold our nose and vote for many cycles.
I would love to see the emergence of a viable Conservative Party. It won't happen as long as we're holding our noses and voting for RINOs because "at least they're not Dems".
I know, I know, here come all the folks telling me that by voting third-party, I'm voting for a Dem. No, I'm not, I'm voting for a conservative, dammit. The world won't end because a couple of Dems got into office for a term or two -- we've survived a lot of Dems over the years. I'd like to see a strong Conservative Party before I die. Is that too much to ask?
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