Lando 
Posted on 10/25/2006 9:38:25 AM PDT by LS
We are now two weeks out and there have been several interesting developments, all posted here on FR in the last 24 hours. Let me review a couple of them, and then "connect the dots," and suggest what might happen.
We have seen Zogby pull a poll today because it was "oversampled for Republicans."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1725448/posts
Fine. How many of these were not caught, and were oversampled for Dems? I have argued for three months that the pollsters, all of them, are using out-of-date voter registration models that oversample Dems by 5-10%. I thought they would have learned their lessons from 2004, especially people like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato, but nooooooooooo!
Next: We have seen that "voter intensity" analysis shows, far from "staying home," GOP voter intensity is even higher than in 2004---and it was already higher than the Dems' intensity by 1.5-2%. Now it's up to a 4% advantage.
When you combine what I think is oversampling of Dems by pollsters with the "voter intensity," I think ALL of the polls are off by a good 5%, minimum, in the direction of the D.
How will that voter intensity be affected if, early on, all hope of getting the Senate disappears? For example, say we have early returns showing either Steele or Kean (or both) winning; or Santorum or DeWine holding? Of Corker and Allen winning fairly easily (as I think now will be the case)? Will we see a ripple effect? I think so.
Probably because they are less visible, you might not have as much impact from some early Dem losses in CT (for ex., Shays and Johnston) or in NY (Reynolds), combined with, say, the losses of one or both seats by the Dems in trouble in GA, but there will be some impact nonetheless. In short, if, before the races are decided in the midwest and west, it becomes clear that the Dems can't win, you may well see a monstrous disillusionment on the part of the Dems "voter intensity," which could decisively tilt the field in western/mid-western races.
If that happens, Bean in IL, the three races in IN (all an hour behind OH), the races in IO, and the races in CO may all be affected.
Vote early--vote often!! For the children!!!!
For the "chow-dren."
Owens splitting the party over Ref C and Holtzman's bitter primary campaign against Beauprez for gov is huge drag on the whole ticket.
Well, we can't have THAT can we?
very interesting - good post - thanks
I thought the polls were claiming 60% against the Iraq war. How does the left explain Joe Lieberman's 12% lead over the Soros backed anti-war candidate? In Conneticut?
Lando
If this turns out to be the case, watch the MSM delay calling anything for a Republican candidate.
Gives extra incentive for us east coasters to vote when polls open.
Already voted, absentee ballot, against Murtha, Casey, and Rendell. It felt tremendously satisfying to vote against a traitor, a vacuous fool, and a goon.
Doh! IA
and you know what wave is going to be taking out the dems..... the REPUBLICANS!!!!!
can you believe that idiot Owens supporting Ref C? WTF is up with that?
I'm in Thornton
ping
You single-handedly talked many FReepers off the ledge in 2004, and you're doing it again. Keep up the good work!
Owens also caused problems with his double-cross on his Senate endorsement, switching to Coors. He also bungled the special session on immigration, handing the Dems a victory.
Campbell all but handed his seat to the Dems because he waited so long to withdraw. Instead of moving up to Senate or Guv, Scott McInnis seems to want to make bucks in the private sector. All in all, our party leadership has sucked.
Thanks! :)
"If this turns out to be the case, watch the MSM delay calling anything for a Republican candidate."
Wolf Blitzer will roll out the "Green" district.
That's not so clear. I'm in the thick of things in Jeffco. We are polling even or ahead in Dick Sargeant's and Affie Ellis's house districts. Ramey Johnson is considerably out front. Affie and Ramey would be a takeaways in the house. Ken Summers is running way out front in what we thought would be a really competitive house district. All three of them overlap Rick O'Donnell district. We are doing much better in Jeffco than we did two years ago and will likely take back the House.
I think Jeffco may surprise everyone and Rick is mainly Jeffco.
We're plotting now to counter the blizzard of last-minute negative lies that are coming from the out-of-state 527 money. I think we have it covered but I'm not going to say how on a public forum.
The other good news is that Musgrave and Lamont are pulling away from the dems. That means the base is coming home, and you will see the effects of that statewide.
Lamont is especially good news as the moderates in the party are doing everything in their power to hand Colorado Springs over to the Dems. Same thing is happening in SD 22, with Mike Kopp. The moderates are trying to defeat a Republican.
With all that said, you are right that the fallout from the Holtzman campaign and Ref C are big hurdles for us this year.
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