Posted on 10/25/2006 9:38:25 AM PDT by LS
We are now two weeks out and there have been several interesting developments, all posted here on FR in the last 24 hours. Let me review a couple of them, and then "connect the dots," and suggest what might happen.
We have seen Zogby pull a poll today because it was "oversampled for Republicans."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1725448/posts
Fine. How many of these were not caught, and were oversampled for Dems? I have argued for three months that the pollsters, all of them, are using out-of-date voter registration models that oversample Dems by 5-10%. I thought they would have learned their lessons from 2004, especially people like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato, but nooooooooooo!
Next: We have seen that "voter intensity" analysis shows, far from "staying home," GOP voter intensity is even higher than in 2004---and it was already higher than the Dems' intensity by 1.5-2%. Now it's up to a 4% advantage.
When you combine what I think is oversampling of Dems by pollsters with the "voter intensity," I think ALL of the polls are off by a good 5%, minimum, in the direction of the D.
How will that voter intensity be affected if, early on, all hope of getting the Senate disappears? For example, say we have early returns showing either Steele or Kean (or both) winning; or Santorum or DeWine holding? Of Corker and Allen winning fairly easily (as I think now will be the case)? Will we see a ripple effect? I think so.
Probably because they are less visible, you might not have as much impact from some early Dem losses in CT (for ex., Shays and Johnston) or in NY (Reynolds), combined with, say, the losses of one or both seats by the Dems in trouble in GA, but there will be some impact nonetheless. In short, if, before the races are decided in the midwest and west, it becomes clear that the Dems can't win, you may well see a monstrous disillusionment on the part of the Dems "voter intensity," which could decisively tilt the field in western/mid-western races.
If that happens, Bean in IL, the three races in IN (all an hour behind OH), the races in IO, and the races in CO may all be affected.
And, am I not correct that, like Arizona, your Colorado is being infiltrated by the lib cockroaches from CA?
Look up any of the posts by jamaroneps37. He's working with his son's polling/media firm, and he has shown that the voter intensity this year is even higher than 04 on our side, and lower on theirs.
LOL. Really good. Did you come up with this?
Dem's cheat - that's their phrase... It's not our way.
I stole, er , borrowed it from Pookie's Toons today.
One of the IN races, the 9th, is on Eastern time, part of the 2nd and part of the 8th are also in the eastern time zone.
Fascinating. This will be important, I think.
I think you may be wrong on the time zone. Our state just voted to bo on the eastern time zone and I'm pretty sure that includes the Gary and Evansville areas whereas those two would've been in the central time zone. It came down to a business decision about the changes because truckers hated crossing Ohio in on zone and Indiana in another. I hated it!
I think you may be wrong on the time zone. Our state just voted to be on the eastern time zone and I'm pretty sure that includes the Gary and Evansville areas whereas those two would've been in the central time zone. It came down to a business decision about the changes because truckers hated crossing Ohio in one time zone and Indiana another zone. I don't like it at all!
In AZ, we not only get too many wacky Leftists from CA (since that is where our bigest influx comes from), but we get many Leftists moving here from the Chicago area, New York, and other places back East, and of course, they bring their friggin' politics with them.
The result is, with the extreme rapid population growth in AZ, that the traditional Republican voting majority seems to gradually get diluted a bit ...
There are two ways to be talked "off the ledge."
LOL
Ah, who gives a crap what the media does. It will fun watching their dad gum stunned looks, like Rather and Jennings on Election 2004. It was classic entertainment, and I laughed heartily.
We've had a very quiet campaign season down here in GA. Gov. Sonny Perdue will win re-election and he has very strong coat-tails. We could end up with every state office held by GOP.
The AJC is writing very little about the election except for the governor's race. They know it could be a GOP sweep and don't want to face the truth that the Dem party in GA is about dead. Even Fulton Co. (Atlanta) could have a majority GOP.
Broken glass and climbing over burning coals, here. :-)
FWIW... I see "Joe" lawn signs mixed in with Dem signs in left-leaning towns here in CT, and "Joe" signs mixed in with GOP signs in right-leaning towns. It's pretty amazing to see...
Interesting post by LS...
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